Maybe History Can Solve the Riddle of the 2015 KYD

Looking at the history of the KYD we may be able to find some pointers as to how the 2015 running will pan out.

This will be the twelfth running of the HRP KYD and there are a few facts that can be easily gleaned from looking at its history. Only one jockey has won the race more than once and that was K J Desmoreaux who has won it no less than three times. With a 25% strike rate he may be the one everyone wants on the big day.

In the training ranks we have no outstanding trainer with eleven different trainers taking the prize so whilst there are clearly those trainers that have an outstanding record at HRP it seems the KYD puts no weight on reputation or past achievements.

The fastest ever KYD was won in 2.00.56 by Sanny Villages Cryptomagic whilst the slowest was Willow Groves slog through the mud in 2011 when he stopped the clock at 2.08.14. We have seen four off tracks in the eleven running’s so the possibility of rain after the last three years being run on fast ground may be fairly high.

Strangely the draw seems to have very little significance on winning the KYD with 4 winners coming from gate ten or worse and 7 from ten or less. However that stat may look to favour the inside it is worth noting that there has been a winner from gate 20 but never from gate 1. In the last four years that stat has also been heavily in favour of the wider draws which is an interesting comparison.

So that is the background to the race and the people, what about the important part, the horses.

Prep races must play a part and if we look at the lead up races of previous winners it makes for interesting reading. All 11 previous winners have raced between 2 and 4 times as a three year old before their wins in the KYD with the clear average being 3. So that’s the first clue. The other significant clue is the fact that only two horses have won either the SA, FL or AR Derby races before winning the KYD. They were the great Five Fives and the first ever HRP KYD winner Fuji Ninja. Dani Dauntless and Laffin To Mia both finished second in the Wood Memorial before the KYD but no Wood Memorial winner has ever won the KYD. So what does that all tell us? Well don’t be afraid to discount a poor prep race and don’t automatically go for the winner of one of the big four qualifiers the SA, FL, or AR Derby’s or the Wood Memorial. With the exception of Five Fives, Fusion and Ghost Walker all the other winners have suffered a significant defeat in one of their prep races, in fact only 5 of the 11 previous winners won before the KYD. Last year’s winner Laffin To Mia was a poor seventh in the TAM Derby, Commanding was ninth in the Risen Star, and Willow Grove fifth in the FL Derby.

Looking at the history of this race it would be possible to deduce that we may see an off track this year, we may also see a winner from gate 20 but it is unlikely that we will see one from gate 1. It is probable that the winner will have been beaten in a prep race and will have raced three times as a three year old and there is also the possibility that K J Desmoreaux will ride the winner. Now put all those things together and just maybe you will have the 2015 KYD winner.

Categories: TC 2015-17, THE TRIPLE CROWN

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