THE 2015 KYD – All the Runners, All the Hopes and Dreams

The 2015 HRP KYD

A Grade One Stakes race for three year olds over a mile and a quarter.

Purse $2,000.000

 

Welcome everyone to the running of the 2015 KYD at HRP. This year more than most we will see a very even field with no real superstars emerging from the qualifiers so it is harder than ever to pick a winner. Will it be one of Mb’s multiple runners or perhaps one of the ones that stable sold. Will it be an ex claimer or a two year old star, only time will tell as 20 runners go to the post on Saturday to do battle for the ultimate prize.

Here are the runners, good luck to all the owners and let’s hope for a good pace, a dry day and no traffic jams.

 

1 Lukas Duke, trained by Jkk Racing Stables

Trainer

Another reaching the HRP veteran stage of 8 years this trainer has been steadily winning at HRP at a rate of 13%. With a small stable they broke through last year and have continued their improvement through this season. With 11 graded stakes wins they have managed only one grade one but will be eager to make it number two in this race. Experience in the big races could be the key here but Jkk has been around long enough to know the ropes.

Two year old form

A debut winner in a hot maiden he dead heated in the Best Pal Stakes before a narrow defeat in the grade one Hopeful made him a top choice for the BC Juvenile. He raced right up on the speed that day but faded late to be fourth something that happened again in the KY Jockey Club when he finished second less than a month after the BC. He got the reputation as a tough nut to crack as a two year old with his aggressive racing style which put him in every race for a long way but he also failed to display a turn of foot at the end of his races and tended to look a bit one paced.

Three year old form

A game win in The Withers followed up with a more restrained than usual win in the Gotham made this one many peoples early choice for the KYD. He put his reputation on the line one more time in the Wood memorial but after looking very dangerous entering the stretch faded a little in the final furlong. I like this big tough horse a lot but if any of his races convinced me he may find a few too good in the KYD it was that last race when he looked the winner before failing to quicken.

Work times

The furthest he has been in a public work this year is seven furlongs but none of those times are overly convincing. He ran a 1.36 and 3 as a two year old over the dirt mile so is in the ball park without being one of the best workers in the field. I think if you like this horse then the work times won’t matter but if you are looking for a reason not to back him then they may be enough to put you off.

Breeding

His sire Luke Duke ran in the KYD himself although didn’t perform too well. In the shed he has been fairly average and it could be easily agreed that Lukas Duke is his only offspring to have achieved anything of note.

His dam Breath Take was just average as a racehorse and also hasn’t produced anything worth noting in her 8 other match ups.

Overall

I want this horse to do well, he is a trier like his trainer and deserves the success but although he will be game and will be in the race for a long way I just see his lack of a turn of foot as a big handicap and struggle to see him winning. Add that to the dreaded one draw and it is hard to see him winning but he will give his owner a thrill and anyone who backs him will get a run for their money.

 

2 Pinnacle West, trained by Hippyheart

Trainer

A relative newcomer Hippyheart kicked off in 2011 and has never won a grade one in their 66 career wins. This season though has been a revelation as they are operating at a 25% win rate with a decent EPR so it seems like they are ready to become a breakthrough trainer and this would be a great way to get noticed.

Two year old form

This son of Charley Farley hadn’t even seen the racecourse before he saw some action and that came in the form of two big sales, one for a hundred dollars and one for three hundred and fifty dollars. So it was clear that Hippyheart thought this one was a TC hope before he even saw the racecourse and that judgement turned out to be spot on. A winner on debut in April he then won the Bashford Manor in his second start. Since that maiden win he has never been out of graded stakes company and must come into this race as one of the most experienced stakes horses in the field. His most notable run amongst a host of excellent placed efforts in top company was when he ran third in the BC Juvenile, bravely trying to make all from a horrible draw. He is one of the best two year olds in this field which is not always a positive but certainly does not hurt his chances.

Three year old form

After such a good two year old campaign it often happens that these early types struggle as a three year olds but Pinnacle West has just kept on trucking in his three starts so far. A good winner of The Lecomte Stakes in his first effort he then went onto win the Risen Star Stakes beating Pink Devil and In Control in the mud using his on pace style to good effect. His first attempt at a longer saw him finish fourth behind Mars in the LA Derby again running on the pace but looking to weaken in the stretch. I liked the run as he was drawn wide and forced to work to get his preferred position but you can’t help but worry that this trip may stretch his stamina a little too far.

Breeding

You would find it hard to fault the Charley Farley bloodline as the sires offspring is littered with stakes winners although so far KYD success and TC runners have been a little light on the ground. That however is a little picky and I think you can safely say that this one is by HRP’s first ever ‘super bloodline’

His dam Sweet Hart has the Northern Ruler bloodline to her name but after a good racecourse career this is her first significant son in 14 offspring.

Work times

A 1.36 and 4 as a two year old firmly put this one near the top of his juvenile generation and whilst we haven’t seen too many public works as a three year old you certainly can’t find anything to fault with his 1.10 and 2 work in early April.

Overall

He no doubt has all the right form lines to his name and has been at the top for a long time now. His experience in graded stakes will certainly be a big plus and he has never run a bad race so he has to go somewhere in your top three. The only negative I can see is the possibility that he won’t see out this trip although plenty of KYD winners have run similar prep races to him leading up to the big one. Lots of positives, very few negatives, you have to like his chances a lot especially as he has drawn a great gate for an on speed type.

 

3 Prince Of Monaco, trained by Nakamura Stables

Trainer

With over 3000 winners in a career that started in 2006 Nakamura Stables has earned more than $60000 with a career win rate of 18.6%. Those impressive stats added to 65 graded stakes wins make them one of the top trainers in the game but unlike some of our other top trainers you wont hear much from them as they quietly go about their business. On top of their game this year they will be hoping for a first TC success.

Two year old form

He ran seven times for only one win as a juvenile but with 5 seconds in that record you have to admire his consistency. A winner on debut he ran well in a couple of black type races before a super late run for a close fifth in the Summer Stakes. That great effort caused many including his trainer to start to think he was a turfer, thus he ran again on that surface next up. He ran a fine second in The Cup and Saucer so it was a little surprising to see him back on the dirt next time out. That run was in The Hopeful Stakes where he kept on nicely to dead heat for second and it marked his card as a racer with plenty of heart that would run well on nails if he was asked to.

Three year old form

He was put away for his break and reappeared as a three year old in The Smarty Jones where he made his way into the KYD reckoning with a smooth one length win. Drawn poorly next up in The Rebel he was taken to the rear but ploughed through the mud late to be a one length second behind Salt lake City. The way he ate into the winners lead that day suggested that he would love the KYD trip although it was tough to determine whether it was the effect of the draw that made him run the way he did. Next up in the AR Derby another wide draw saw him thrown up into the stalk where he ran very well for a long way before being beaten into fourth. It will be very interesting to see how he goes with a more neutral draw as he has raced completely differently the last two times.

Work times

A 1.36 and 4 in February is good enough to suggest he is right in this but considering he ran a 1.36 and 3 as a two year old you have to question whether he has made much improvement between two and three.

Breeding

His sire Knowledge Geek by Tree Of Knowledge didn’t do much on the track but he has sired some useful types. Biblical Knowledge a grade one winning two year old and the useful filly Geek Watch are amongst his winning offspring so there is clearly some decent genes being passed on through the line.

The Dam Daughter Of Monaco doesn’t have any racecourse form but has managed to get a couple of fair ones in addition to Prince Of Monaco and boasts ten wins from just 5 foals.

Overall

It is difficult to weigh this one up but there is plenty to like the way he goes about his racing. He has been able to sit on the pace and come from behind and he has also handled soft ground so he is definitely the sort that could run a big race. Nakamura Stables flies under the radar as a trainer and knows exactly how to get a horse at its best for big races so that’s a plus and if you add that to consistency and a touch of class there are plenty of reasons to expect a big race from him. The draw will be ideal and this is the type that represents a ‘safe bet’ as to what you will get whatever the conditions.

 

4 Generals Companion, trained by Maxmillion Farm

Trainer

790 wins for $27000 Max has been around since 2007. With an career win percentage of 19% they are on top form this year sitting at 23.5% at the moment. Max has won 28 graded stakes with 8 of those being at grade one. With a 14.7% strike rate in graded stakes and a slight statistical preference for dirt routes this could turn out to be a big year for the popular trainer.

Two year old form

He ran five times as a two year old only winning once in an SA Maiden on his fourth attempt. There wasn’t too many clues as to his ability on his first two starts when well beaten but he started in June and was racing more experienced two year olds. He started to get his act together when stretched out over a mile eventually winning over that trip in a competitive maiden. He struggled to follow that up in his last start as a two year old getting well beaten in a one win allowance at FG

Three year old form

His two year old owner La Canada Racehorses clearly had some clue to his ability because he started the son of General Assembly in early January with an easy win before heading to the TC trail in The Withers. There was a lot to like about his run to finish fifth behind Lukas Duke, beaten just two lengths and hitting the line strongly after a difficult race saw him buried for much of the trip. It was after that start that the somewhat controversial sale took place and Maxmillion Farm bought him for just twenty dollars and he has now become the leading qualifier for this prestigious race. His first start for the new owner was in The San Felipe Stakes where he stormed home again from a tough spot to be beaten just a half-length by Much Notoriety. It was clear after these two good runs that he needed to get himself in the race much earlier and a master stroke of training and tactics saw him go to the SA Derby with a much different plan. In the lead almost out of the gate he set a slow pace and just kept piling on the pressure eventually coming home an unchallenged three lengths clear of Spotted Cat.

Work times

There is certainly nothing to put you off his chances when you look at his work times. A pre-race 1.01 as a two year old was a good indication of his ability and in running a 1.37 flat for the mile as a two year old he was certainly in the top bracket on work times even though his race course performance hadn’t matched that. A February work of 1.36 and 3 is right up there in the top 50 three year old work times this year and he showed his wellbeing after his SA Derby win with a nice 1.23 flat 7 furlong work.

Breeding

His sire General Assembly was the sire of Generals Road who also ran in the KYD and was a grade one winner over a route trip. General Rose a winner of the DEL Oaks and the grade one Test along with The Generals Out a grade one winner and fourth in the BC Juvenile fillies were two of the sire’s best daughters. General Assembly has sired the winners of 433 races and over $15 000 in earnings so you cannot doubt his pedigree and with a lot of those winners coming over a route trip he looks just the type of sire to add a KYD to his achievements.

His Dam was unraced and this is the first of her seven foals to rise to any significant heights.

Overall

His SA Derby win was probably the most impressive prep race performance in the field but the false early pace is something that worries me. I can’t imagine he will find it so easy to get a good position so cheaply in this race so it is probably the one chink in his armour that may cost him the win. Everything else about him looks good and is hard to fault so with a fantastic draw if he can manage to find a challenging position in the stretch I think he may prove to be the best twenty dollar purchase ever seen on HRP.

5 Shed A Tear, trained by Mb Stables

Trainer

Mb Stables burst onto the scene in 2009 but didn’t really start to dominate until 2012. With 172 graded stakes wins and 53 of those at grade one you don’t have to dig deep to find the sort of credentials which has seen them take the trainer of the year and breeder of the year titles in recent years. With a 35% win percentage this year they seem to be more dominant than ever and with 3 runners there is a strong chance this trainer will be in the top 4 with at least one of those.

Two year old form

Raced seven times for two wins as a two year old but was pretty inconsistent with some up and down performances. A winner on debut in the early maidens in April he had two cracks at black type but was well beaten in the second of those, The SAR Special. Gelded after another defeat he then took the Grey Stakes beating Decima by a comfortable length and it looked like his inconsistencies might be a thing of the past. He was pretty AWOL in the BC Juvenile next time out which dispelled that thought and when beaten in an overnight on his last juvenile start he went into his break as a real head scratcher.

Three year old form

He made all and just lasted home in the El Camino beating his then stable companion Citizens Union and dead heating with Macht Nichts. That was a fair effort as he was drawn wide and the race engine threw him into the lead something he had never done before. He has only had one other start and that was in the SUN Derby where he again drew fairly wide and tried to make all again. In the end he faded just a little to be second although to be fair to him and King Cobra he was outstayed by his rival. Those efforts were at least a little more consistent so it seems he needs to be on the speed to run his best, something that is never easy to establish in a 20 runner field although this very favourable draw will go some way to helping him.

Work times

He ran 1.36 and 2 as a two year old over the dirt mile so must be respected on that but his three year old works have been a little less inspiring. There is nothing in his works that says he can’t win.

Breeding

His sire, Super Rosy is out of Red Rioja so it is clear why he went to stud after seven fair efforts on the track. With only 16 match ups it is impossible to tell what sort of success he will have but so far this is the only son or daughter to have recorded any pay race wins.

His dam, Broken Barricades comes from the Steel Ball line and raced once and won once on the racecourse. She too has nothing to show for 7 other match ups.

Overall

The question for this one is not is he good enough but will he be good enough today. He has shown glimpses to suggest he is capable of getting into this but has mixed those with some pretty average efforts. It is clear he needs to be on the speed to bring out his best and a reproduction of his three year old efforts and two year old mile works would make him a tough nut to crack if getting a soft lead. For me there are too many ifs to give this one my vote but a win really wouldn’t be a surprise.

6 Jack The Flipper, trained by Running Farms

Trainer

This trainer was very busy in their first two seasons 2010 and 2011 winning over $7000 in 2011. Since then they have scaled down and barely raced in 2014. It seems this season though with some big purchases that they are back to do business and add to their 3 graded stakes wins. Its easy to look at their recent record and question whether they are ready for this but with 605 career wins and in excess of $11000 in prize money the ability to get a horse in top form should not be in question.

Two year old form

He was a pretty average two year old winning a little sprint maiden. He was claimed in his last start that saw him get beaten a head in a fifteen dollar claimer by Mb Stables who put him away for a bit before adding him to the long list of three year olds that the stable threw at the qualifiers.

Three year old form

Starting off in the Davis Stakes he tried to make all before fading into third which wasn’t bad as a seasonal debut especially as he was coming out of a last start claiming defeat. The dice was rolled again in the TAM Derby where this time he produced a tidy turn of foot to see off A One and Kingslayer. That win was pretty smart and prompted Running Farms to pay out a fairly hefty looking five hundred dollars to secure him for their stable. That was a large amount to pay out on the back of just one good run from eight and Running Farms must have been left shaking their head after his final prep race in the BG Stakes. He got back that day and never really got into the race finishing tenth behind Im Too Confident. Now as bad as that run looked he was only beaten three lengths so whilst it was disappointing it wasn’t enough to write him off in your calculations for this race.

Work times

His 1.37 work in February was a fair one and he has looked sharp enough since without setting the world on fire. His works would suggest he has a bit to find but they are not terrible and shouldn’t be seen as too much of a negative.

Breeding

His sire Major Oak was shot after 53 other foals failed to produce anything of significance and although his dam, Winter Palace suffered the same fate she was a little more successful although there is nothing to suggest she will be a loss to the breeding world.

Overall

Looking at works and breeding and all form other than his win in the TAM Derby you have to ask yourself what was Running farms thinking in paying $500 for this one. His TAM Derby winning form gives him a shot at glory in this race but I am a long way from being convinced that he is good enough to win a KYD. Having said all that I wish the trainer the best of luck and maybe if this horse can drag another performance like that win out of his trophy cupboard I may be forced to eat my words.

7 Im Too Confident, trained by Mb Stables

Trainer

Mb Stables burst onto the scene in 2009 but didn’t really start to dominate until 2012. With 172 graded stakes wins and 53 of those at grade one you don’t have to dig deep to find the sort of credentials which has seen them take the trainer of the year and breeder of the year titles in recent years. With a 35% win percentage this year they seem to be more dominant than ever and with 3 runners there is a strong chance this trainer will be in the top 4 with at least one of those.

Two year old form

Raced four times as a two year old and firmly established himself as a top class individual by his second race. An average debut at RUI over a sprint trip was clearly needed because on his second start he took the ungraded stakes The Sleepy Hollow by a hugely impressive two lengths. With that excellent win under his belt he went to the thousand dollar DED Jackpot and won by a game nose. His last start as a two year old was in the LA Futurity where he flew home to be third beaten only a quarter length and with that season closing performance went into the break among the early favourites for the KYD.

Three year old form

With a couple of months break he went into the Fountain Of Youth Stakes on his seasonal debut just a little rusty. He ran well to be fourth only beaten a length but did not find much under pressure that day after running up on the pace. We saw his true self in The BG Stakes on his second and only other start where he beat Siberian Slew and Sindaco Di Firenze by a length. My only fear with that last start was just when he looked like he was going to saunter home by three or four lengths he began to tie up a little in the final furlong and the others were just closing him down at the post.

Work times

His 1.36 and 1 work at GP is the among the best mile works in the field so that is a huge tick against his name in a game where work times are pretty much the biggest tool in a trainers armoury. He has speed too as his sub 58 second five furlong works tell us and tactical speed is essential in this race. I wasn’t over impressed with his six furlong breeze at CD after his BG Stakes win but Mb Stables knows exactly how to win these big races so I wouldn’t worry too much about it especially as he flew in his final prep work over five furlongs.

Breeding

There is no doubting his sire, Hollywood Moon, when it comes to breeding ability. Blow Me To The Moon was a grade one winner whilst Quench went into the 2012 Derby as a strong fancy. Hollywood Freak is still going strong adding the MM Mile to his list of grade one victories just a few weeks ago. Hollywood Moon has sired the winners of 240 races with over $11 000 in winnings but my only problem this sires line is that most of the best of the offspring have favoured turf.

His dam Too Sweet To fail only raced once and has not come up with any other son or daughter to talk about in ten match ups.

Overall

There is no doubt in my mind that this is the stable number one. Already a grade one winner and the nearly the fastest mile worker in the field it is hard to find reasons not to think he can win. My two small worries are his ability to see out this trip in a truly run race and a small worry about the surface. They are very small chinks in an otherwise very strong suit of armour though and one feels that if this huge effort that Mb Stables has put in to try and win the TC is going to pay off this could be the one to do it. Add a very good draw and he will be number one on a lot of lists.

8 King Cobra, trained by Aer Stables

Trainer

One of the most inexperienced trainers with a runner in this race they started just two seasons ago but signalled pretty early that they were interested in winning the big races. In their 71 career wins they have managed just three grade three races so this is a real test for them. If confidence could win then Aer would be among the favourites and a win here would certainly get them some serious brownie points for an already confident trainer.

Two year old form

He remained a maiden throughout his two year old career with 5 sprint maidens for no wins. To be fair he didn’t really run a bad race and managed three good placings which in hindsight were not too bad considering he is clearly a router. He was bought for just sixty dollars at the end of the year by Aer Stables and that was a great spot by the new owner.

Three year old form

It didn’t take him long to put his 5 two year old defeats behind him as he ate up the mile and 70 yards of his three year old debut and won by a very impressive three lengths. The way he won and the time he did it in were enough to convince his trainer that he was a good one and that was further demonstrated in his next start. The Battaglia Memorial Stakes isn’t a classic KYD trial but as he once again strode effortlessly clear in a quick time it became clear that Aer Stables would have to find a qualifying race for him and fast. That race was the SUN Derby and once again there was a lot to like about his three quarter length beating of Shed A Tear. Once again the winning time was very good but it was the way he recovered from a slow start that was so impressive and he certainly proved he can win from anywhere in his races.

Work times

Not as stunning as some of his rivals he has certainly ran his best time on the racecourse. A 1.37 as a two year old was pretty good but since then we haven’t seen him over a mile again. His 6 furlong works have been OK but are some way off a few of these so as far as his chances go you have to rely on what he has done on the track rather than in his works.

Breeding

His Sire El Gran Gayley is from the El Gran Broomistick bloodline and that has been very successful recently in producing two year old talent. With only a couple of generations to his name this is by far the best horse he has produced so far but he did have the third placed three year old in the SUN Derby as well so there is certainly promise in the family.

His dam Gayley was fair on the track but out of four foals this is the only one that has put foot on the racecourse.

Overall

I am not overly convinced by this one’s work times but his racecourse performances have been solid. The SUN Derby isn’t a hugely successful prep race for the KYD so you have to say his lead up wins whilst comprehensive haven’t come against the quality of some of his rivals today. That being said I like him a lot and I think he could be the dark horse of the race as he has proved he can win from any position and that this trip will hold no fears for him. A good draw will allow him to get a good position in the race so look for him to be powering home from midpack.

9 Dominant Speed, trained by Rockitpad

Trainer

Another from the school of 2007 they have been pretty consistent since, winning at a career rate of 15.5%. Amongst their 819 career wins have been 19 graded stakes wins with 3 at grade one. A steady trainer with an average sized stable they have always held this one in high regard and will be ready to add a first TC success to their record.

Two year old form

A grade one winning juvenile there isn’t much not to like about his first year of racing at HRP. Six runs and three wins he was quickly stepped up to route trips after three runs in sprints and that was where his true quality became apparent. His comprehensive win in The Breeders’ Futurity made him pretty short odds to follow up in The BC Juvenile but a draw of 14 made that an almost impossible task and he ran well in the end to be sixth. His owner, knowing he had a KYD prospect on his hands rested him after those two grade one efforts and he went into Christmas as a live hope for TC glory.

Three year old form

He reappeared in the CA Cup Derby where he ran a nice race coming from a long way off the pace to be a creditable third. That run was a good warm up for a clash with Spotted Cat in The Fountain Of Youth Stakes and he very nearly ruined the party in that race only going down by a neck in a classic battle. His last start, in the FL Derby, saw him drawn 13 and as is usual with wide draws that forced him up onto the pace which is not necessarily his best running style. He ran a cracker in my mind to end up third beaten a length by Unsuited. Considering his draw I thought that was a very good effort and being beaten in your lead up race is fairly common with KYD winners so I wouldn’t lose heart if I were his owner.

Work times

He has dropped in a couple of 1.36 and 1 mile works this year which put him in the top three workers in this race and those works will certainly stand him in good stead here. He has worked one of the best pre race works in the field so on the work side he will certainly be ready to give his best effort.

Breeding

His sire Skeleton Key was fourth in the KYD and second in The BEL so there is plenty to like about his credentials. With Skeleton Balle among his offspring and the excellent filly Skeleton Spy he looks like he may be the break through stallion this year.

His dam Speedometer was a stakes winner on the track and boasts the Timepiece bloodline so it is hard to fault her even though this is her only offspring to achieve anything yet.

Overall

It is hard to find fault with this one either as a two year old or a three year old. The two times he has failed in grade one company he has had to overcome terrible draws so I actually think he is a little bit better than his bare form suggests. I like the fact that he was beaten in his prep race, not many KYD winners win their prep and his third place finish was pretty good in the circumstances. Works, form and breeding all point to this one being right there at the sharp end and I am loving his centre pack draw which will give the trainer plenty of choice when selecting the right tactics to see him through the traffic.

10 Salt Lake City, trained by Boomtown

Trainer

Boomtown has been at HRP since 2009 and enjoyed almost immediate success. With 1449 wins and nearly $30000 in prize money they have reined back since 2012 but are still one of the trainers that you have to notice when they have a runner in a race. With 9 graded stakes wins and just 1 grade one they haven’t enjoyed the high level success of some but have done well with the horses they have and I am sure Salt Lake City will be fit and ready for action today.

Two year old form

His seven runs as a two year old saw two wins, both in overnights. His only start over a trip as a juvenile saw him beaten less than a length in The Lafitte behind Citizens Union so whilst he hasn’t got the sexy two year old form of some of these he certainly showed enough to suggest he had ability.

Three year old form

With only two starts as a three year old we haven’t got a lot to go on but his seasonal debut made a few sit up and take notice. That run was in the inconspicuous General George Handicap where he ran second, now that wouldn’t be much to write home about until you look at the conditions of that race. An all aged handicap in February is virtually impossible to win for a three year old, especially when you look at the winner who only beat this one by a neck on level weights. Rule The Roost is a very late developer and had run a close fifth in a grade two last year and after his narrow defeat of Salt Lake City he has since win the grade one Carter Handicap by a very easy two lengths. That run won many admirers, especially me, and I was amongst the many who thought he could get into the KYD picture with a bit of luck. His chance came in the Rebel where a sloppy track saw him make all for a gutsy win over Prince Of Monaco and Viking Shield. Again looking at a sloppy track win for a horse that was suited by the rain would not make you overly confident but the fact that he backed up his great run on debut spoke volumes for his quality.

Work times

There isn’t much to not like about his works either. A sub 1.37 in March and a speedy 1.10 for six furlongs put him in the right half for this race and I can’t really find a reason not to like him on his homework.

Breeding

Take A Million is an unproven sire but with good lines that include Five Daddy Five and Millionaire Heiress this could be the first good one of many. Hs dam like pretty much all of the female lines of the other runners was useless on the track and has very little to boast about with other siblings

Overall

I must admit to having a soft spot for this one. After his brave run on seasonal debut when I jokingly said that if an eight year old and a three year old fought out the finish I would leave horse racing I have been following his progress towards this day. His run in the Rebel was great but would’ve meant so much more had it been run on a faster surface but I do think he is much more than a mud lover and I don’t think we have seen the best of him yet. It is a risk if, like me, you intend to back him as there isn’t much more to go on than one win in the mud and a freak run in a relatively small handicap race, but, if you like a gamble then he could be the one at very rewarding odds.

11 Mars, trained by Grimley

Trainer

Another trainer that has flown under the radar they have been here since 2009 and managed 146 wins for a 14.8% win rate since then. With 8 graded stakes wins over the years and just one grade one they will be hoping to improve on what is already looking like their best ever season. Experience in the big race arena may be lacking but this is a trainer on the up.

Two year old form

Like so many he had a throwaway debut race at a nothing track finishing down the field but took the improvement bounce to win a big purse maiden at SAR in his next start. He was then beaten by the mud in The Champagne where he was a disappointing ninth but failed again in better ground when seventh in an overnight next time out. Those two poor efforts caused the trainer to geld him and he ran a bit better in his last start as a two year old winning a little race at GP.

Three year old form

After showing the odd glimmer of ability as a two year old Grimley put him straight on the TC Trail as he started his three year old campaign starting off with a sixth place finish in The Holy Bull. He then made an attempt to make all the running in the TAM Derby but weakened late into fifth behind Jack The Flipper and it has to be said was not looking like a likely starter in the KYD at that point. That all changed though when he started an outsider in the LA Derby and managed to get home and beat Decima by three quarters of a length. That last start win came a little of the blue and it must be taken on trust that he can repeat that form twice after some pretty inconsistent efforts in the lead up.

Work times

He managed a 1.36 and 4 back in February so certainly has the work times to be competitive here. The rest of his works are OK but uninspiring so you would have to put him in the good rather than excellent category as far as his work times are concerned.

Breeding

Need A Marlboro was a very tough race horse running 45 times for 9 wins but was certainly a horse that preferred turf which may be a worry here. With plenty of covers in his first two seasons it really is only Mars that has produced any significant form so like many other sires he will be looking for this horse to be his breakthrough son.

His Dam, Angels Luck was a maiden in 4 starts on the racecourse but has managed to parent another graded stakes winner in Impoli Une with only 8 total foals.

Overall

To really give this one a winning chance you are putting all your eggs in one basket and that was his win in the LA Derby. Whilst that win was very good there is very little else that draws you too him so if you like this one then good luck but I would have to pass him over with such a tentative hope to go on.

12 Viking Shield, trained by Delta Farms

Trainer

An under the radar type trainer Delta Farms has been around since 2007 and has a relatively small operation. Size is by no means everything though and with a career average of 18.8% wins and a 22.7% strike rate this year they certainly have a way of making ends meet. We don’t often see this trainer in the graded stakes arena as their two graded stakes successes suggest but they have an experienced head and you can be assured that this horse will take his place in top order.

Two year old form

If you looked at his two year old form alone you would not be thinking KYD winner but he did manage to win in his three starts so he wasn’t exactly useless. Two good efforts preceded a game head win at FG and as all of those runs were over an inadequate six furlongs you can, in hindsight, excuse the trouble he had in impressing.

Three year old form

It was clear he was improving quickly as he took his seasonal debut in a GP allowance, again over six furlongs but this time showing plenty of speed and stamina to win by just under a length. The TC dice was thrown in The Southwest where he ran home very strongly and late to be second, beaten a length by Unsuited. That was a decent run and came a little out of the blue but no such mistake was made by punters when he ran in The Rebel next time. Struggling a little in the slushy ground he kept on well for third in a gutsy effort but was still struggling to get enough points to make this field so had to go again in the AR Derby. He ran a huge race in that $1000 grade one coming from a long way back to beat Citizens Union by three quarters of a length and I must admit hugely impressed me.

Work times

He worked a 1.36 and 3 mile way back in February and has improved since then so you have to say that he is well up there with the best workers in the field. A super 1.10 flat six furlong work prior to his AR Derby win was very good and a breeze on the track whilst uninspiring will have got him in top order for a big effort.

Breeding

His sire Viking Rage is an unraced son of Charley Farley which is certainly the bloodline of the moment here at HRP. His only other offspring with significant ability is Captain Awesome who is a grade two winner so it is possible that whilst there isn’t much form to go on he may be a sire that is on the brink of big success.

His dam Amazing Fit was pretty useless on the track but did manage to give birth to Shoulder Wheel, a multiple graded stakes winner, at the first time of asking so there is some quality genes in there. With plenty of stamina in both his sire and dam it is hard to find too many negatives in his breeding.

Overall

The key to this one’s success could well be the pace of the race. The fast early pace in the AR Derby played right into his hands and he picked them off late so it may be essential that he gets the same here. Of course trying to weave through 20 runners is a tough ask but I think if he sees some daylight and gets some luck he may well be the last to challenge and the first to finish.

13 Spotted Cat, trained by Blushing Meadows

Trainer

Love him or hate him Blushing Meadows has a super record at HRP with 1334 winners in a career that started in 2007. Their win rate this year is at 19.7% slightly up on the career average of 16.9% and with $68000 in prize money this trainer knows how to win the big races. 87 Graded stakes wins have seen 33 grade ones, many of those from very astute purchasing so this will be a very satisfying win if they can pull it off in the KYD.

Two year old form

A winner of his only start as a two year old, a five furlong maiden at RET in the mud, it would be very hard to find the highlights in his two year old racecourse performance. The highlight for him would not be in how he ran though but more who his works times attracted. In December Blushing Meadows rose a few eyebrows by paying $590 for the tiny son of Ultimate Dogma and almost immediately started telling anyone that would listen that he though this one was special. That purchase was on the strength of his 1.36 flat dirt mile work which remains the quickest over that trip in the field.

Three year old form

With a big reputation he attracted plenty of interest in his first start for his new owner as a three year old. It came in the ungraded stakes race the CA Derby and the way he beat Fatal Dream by an easy two lengths saw a sigh of relief from his trainer and a flurry of reports from the press. He again put his reputation on the line in The Fountain Of Youth Stakes and after a tough trip managed to get up late for a neck win beating Dominant Speed, Decima and Im Too Confident in the process. With his KYD qualification hanging in the balance he was given another start In the SA Derby but a slow early pace and a wide trip made it tough for him and he ended up being beaten fairly comprehensively by Generals Companion in finishing second.

Work times

The 1.36 flat he ran as a two year old prompted the big purchase we saw by his owner and that remains one of the best mile works in the field. Since then he has been burning up the gallops with a 1.10 flat work after his SA Derby win and I must admit you would find it very hard to find a better worker in the field.

Breeding

Ultimate Dogma never saw the racecourse and apart from this one has been pretty uninspiring in the shed so far. His grand sire Dogma was one of the best turf horses seen on HRP which may or may not be a good thing but the quality of the genes cannot be faulted.

His Dam Aetna like so many mares was pretty useless on the track and this is her first foal to see the racecourse. If there is any area that Spotted Cat fails in it is in his breeding as neither his sire of dam have anything in their records so far to recommend them.

Overall

On the positive side I think his second in the SA Derby was much better than a well beaten second and his form before that was very good. If you look at what he has done in 4 starts and what he has done in his works you would have to put him very near the top of your selections but it is fairly easy to find a couple of negatives if you are looking for reasons to not to back him. At only 15.1hh he is still not much bigger than a pony and asking such a tiny horse to run a mile and a quarter with 126Lbs on his back and 20 bigger horses to get round is a very tough ask. You will either love his chances or hate them but I must admit I fall into the first category and would not leave him out of my first three.

14 Divine And Broke, trained by Sanny Village

Trainer

A popular trainer they have been around since 2007 and racked up over a thousand wins for an impressive career win percentage of 22.3%. No stranger to success with 119 graded stakes wins, 31 of those at grade one, they will be eager to see off the opposition here with their BC champion. Whilst they have been around the block a few times Sanny Village doesn’t have the same sort of size stable as some of the ‘super’ stables but has proved they know how to win the big races and I am sure they will have Divine And Broke ready to go today.

Two year old form

A winner of four from six as a two year old this is the champion juvenile of last year. Bought for $110 after a debut win he has never run out of stakes company since and must rate the best two year old in the field. His win in the BC Juvenile was dominant taking the race by a length after taking the perfect trip. The triple digit speed figures he recorded in the BC was huge and that big win was followed by a narrow defeat in the LA Futurity despite a nasty wide draw. He was the winter favourite for the KYD and recorded a 1.36 and 3 mile work as early as August of his two year old campaign, a time he has since bettered.

Three year old form

You could easily look at his 3 runs for no win record as a three year old and surmise that he is one of those super two year olds that just doesn’t train on. However his three defeats have all come in graded stakes and with a total losing margin of only four and a half lengths in those three races it would be a tough call to say he is finished. He didn’t handle the mud in the Risen Star on his seasonal debut and got a bit lost in the San Felipe but his run in the Wood memorial was right back to his best and past winners have told us that second in the Wood memorial is a KYD winning prep. He defied the eleven draw in the Wood and was only beaten a half-length by Port On The Horizon after being put on the early pace. I think he is coming into his own right at the right time and you would be a fool to write off this juvenile champion.

Work times

He hasn’t had too many public works since his scorching two year old work but did manage a 1.36 and 2 before his three year old debut so on that evidence is right in this.

Breeding

His sire, Home Of The Divine, did not do much on the track but he has bred plenty of winners in his two season stand at stud. There is nothing of the calibre of this son but it is early days in his stud career.

The dam, Baast, also failed to achieve on the track and has eight other foals to her name that have achieved nothing. This is a good old fashioned HRP match up that has produced a juvenile champion with very little reasoning behind it.

Overall

You cannot fault this one on form and if he wasn’t the two year old champion his three year old form would look a lot better. I like the experience he brings to this race and I like horses that get beaten in the Wood memorial coming into the KYD so there are plenty of reasons to give him a big chance. However his seemingly poor parentage and the fact that two year old champs don’t always fare so well in the KYD make him a choice to treat with some restraint when piling on your pick em money. He likes to be on or near the pace so this draw may test him a little bit as he may not be quite wide enough to get the wide gate boost.

15 Decima, trained by Mb Stables

Trainer

Mb Stables burst onto the scene in 2009 but didn’t really start to dominate until 2012. With 172 graded stakes wins and 53 of those at grade one you don’t have to dig deep to find the sort of credentials which has seen them take the trainer of the year and breeder of the year titles in recent years. With a 35% win percentage this year they seem to be more dominant than ever and with 3 runners there is a strong chance this trainer will be in the top 4 with at least one of those.

Two year old form

This son of Chai Latte was a busy two year old putting in some very nice performances along the way. A clear win followed a good debut and he bypassed the allowances to compete in stakes races in all his remaining races. His biggest juvenile success came in the grade two Nashua a popular race for KYD winners and after that win he was put away for a rest and a tilt at TC qualification.

Three year old form

Coming back after a rest he met his stable companion Much Notoriety in The Holy Bull Stakes and for the first time in his career was put right on the sharp end of the early speed. He showed he had guts as well as class that day with a nose win and set Mb Stables on the way to having an unprecedented 5 KYD qualifiers. His next start was in the Fountain Of Youth Stakes where a faster early pace saw him off the pace but he finished strongly to be beaten less than a length in third behind Spotted Cat. I would say his best start as a three year old came in his last race which was in the LA Derby. Getting well behind early on he had to negotiate plenty of horses to get into second behind Mars again beaten less than a length. He will find 20 horses harder to get round than the 13 he faced that day so the pace of the race and thus his closeness to the front will have plenty to do with how he runs today.

Work times

He broke 1.37 for the mile in March so he is in the mix even though he isn’t the best worker in the race. His sprint works have been fairly sharp so if you like him there isn’t much to put him off you in this area.

Breeding

His sire Chai Latte like his own grandsire Charley Farley seems to be the sire of the moment and he is one of the few stallions that features more than one KYD contender. His early match ups have produced plenty of wins and lots of prize money so his bloodline can allow you to put a big tick against his name.

Hs dam Steel Diva only raced once but follows the popular and successful Steel Ball bloodline so her poor record with offspring shouldn’t be oversold as a negative.

Overall

A nice sort he ticks a lot of boxes with some excellent runs in top company. I like his effort last time out but what worries me is that he seems very reliant on pace and very rarely has deviated from it. Thus his running style is relative to the pace of the race and that for me is a negative because I don’t know whether he will be on the speed or tailed off last. An average pace and a spot six lengths off the leaders early on will give him the best chance but that is a lot of ifs and hopes and I am not willing to throw my betting dollars at the hopeful pace of a race especially as he comes out of a tough draw.

16 Citizens Union, trained by Saratoga Stud

Trainer

This trainer burst onto the scene back in 2008 and has been in and out of the game ever since. With 376 wins and $26000 in prize money they are no stranger to the big time a fact echoed by their 14 grade one wins. Both of their runners today were bought from Mb Stables so they haven’t had a lot of time to put their own training take on their preparation but there is no reason to think they won’t be ready for a big effort.

Two year old form

Took a couple to get off the mark but when he did he looked good in making all in a high end maiden at BEL, before tackling better company. That first black type effort was in the Lafitte where he battled bravely to beat Southking by a neck. That prompted a tilt at the Remsen and he did well after being thrown onto the lead by the wide draw bias to keep on for a one length second to Port On The Horizon. Those two good efforts saw him get put away for a launch as a three year old on the TC trail with the rest of Mb Stables prospects.

Three year old form

A fair run to be fifth in The Jerome on seasonal debut preceded a strong finishing head third in the El Camino next up. That was a fair effort and he was quietly fancied for the Spiral Stakes only to run a pretty average eighth but only beaten two lengths by Skeleton Balle. It was last chance café as he went to the AR Derby in his last start and after getting a horror draw it should’ve resulted in an early shower. Citizens Union was having none of that however and ran a cracker to be second beaten less than a length by Viking Shield. You had to admire that effort and out if all his runs that is the one that makes him a chance in this race, whether he is worth the $600 that Saratoga Stud paid for him is another question.

Work times

He put in a 1.36 and 4 in March so clearly is in the right half as far as works go but is also not the best worker by a fair way and whilst he has supported that with some sharp sprint works I am not overly convinced of his chances based on works. I liked his breeze on the track as a prep for this though and have a sneaking suspicion that this may be the best of the late buys coming into this race.

Breeding

His sire Moan raced only once but being by Jolly Be Great out of a Northern Dancer mare it is easy to see why he was directed to stud at that early stage of his career. He has only produced 14 foals in a stunted career so this one could be the flagship offspring he needs to make his mark.

His dam Bronx Dancer didn’t see the racecourse and has yet to produce any other significant offspring.

Overall

It is difficult to weigh up his chances just based on the fact that the best trainer in the game at the moment sold him before his three other runners. On the face of it I think this was the best of those that Mb sold and if you forget the fact that he was passed over and imagine he had always been with Saratoga Stud it is easier to see his chances. He was a good two year old and he has been a very good three year old with his run in the SA Derby from a wide draw being full of merit. He has a wide draw in this but he had a wide draw in both the Remsen and the SA Derby so that won’t bother him too much. If there is to be a winner that will make for a great story it will be this one.

17 Unsuited, trained by D J C Racing Stables

Trainer

A relative ‘newbie’ D J C has only been around since 2012. Since then they have won 55 graded stakes with 6 grade ones and own the ‘super’ horse Niagra. With a relatively average overall win percentage of 13.6% they are currently running at 15.3% which isn’t the highest but considering the relative inexperience is a pretty good stat. With 840 career wins if it was enthusiasm that won this race then D J C would be the favourite and will be a popular winner if they can get one home.

 

Two year old form

A winner once from six attempts as a two year old he was pretty disappointing after a good start. A nice debut way back in April last year he followed that up with a good win at PRX before running a close second in the ungraded Victoria Stakes. With all his two year old starts being over sprint trips he was to struggle after those first three runs finishing out of the money in three further attempts at ungraded stakes. Raced by Allinthegate Stable at two he was sold to D J C Racing stables for an expensive looking $275 at the end of December and prepared for his three year old campaign.

Three year old form

Brought out in an overnight at TP over a mile for his three year old debut he won by a length in a fast time and that got him nicely ready for a crack at the TC trail. He was thrown into The Southwest as an outsider with very little form to recommend him but he won with some authority in beating Viking Shield by a length. Now if like me you like Viking Shields chances then you would have to say this one looked much better that day and he confirmed that improvement in form with a stunning run in his third and last start. Much closer to the pace in the FL Derby he again always looked in control to beat Inspector Woof by a length in a good time. So he comes into this race as an unbeaten three year old and you just cannot fault that form coming into this race.

Work times

A solid worker he has never been one of the best based on his work times. There is certainly nothing wrong with them but they aren’t anywhere near the best in the field so you have to take his wellbeing on trust.

Breeding

His sire, Well Informed, won the grade two Nashua in 2012 and is by the highly successful Red Roja. As a sire he is unproven at present with nothing else in the same class as this son but he is nicely bred himself and is proven on the racecourse so he could be about to break through.

His dam Roundhouse won one race from two starts both at the free track but has the Steel Ball bloodline on her side so could be another that is ready to get a big winner. None of her other ten foals have done anything of significance.

Overall

If you looked at three year old form alone you would have to say that this one pretty much leads the way. His wins in The southwest and The FL Derby have been dominant in both their winning and the way this colt has been able to keep a good position in transit. You really cannot fault his lead into the KYD but that can very often be the kiss of death. If he wins this like he has been doing previously then we could be looking at another Five Fives but there are so many possibilities in a 20 runner field that you have to look very hard at every runner. I guess the one thing that maybe against him is his size, at only 15.2 he is open to being bullied early on as he tries to get to the rail from this very wide draw. If he is hung out wide and has to go hard to get on the speed he may struggle but if the wide gate boost works in his favour and he gets in early and into the stalk he will be very hard to beat.

18 Sindaco Di Firenze, trained by Jerry Garcia Racing

Trainer

It is impossible to find fault in this veterans record. Joining at the beginning in 2003 they have been a consistently top trainer ever since winning 1247 races for over $90000 at a brilliant rate of 21.5%. With 150 graded stakes wins, 54 of those being at grade one they have always dealt with quality rather than quantity and have a reputation as a very astute trainer. Thus although this runner only just squeezed into the field his rival trainers will be very worried that this old timer may pull some magic out of the bag.

Two year old form

He didn’t do much as a two year old running no better than third in three tries. However in hindsight we can see that he was given a heady combination of Lasix and Bute in those races and that was removed before his three year old campaign so that may go some way to explain those pretty average efforts.

Three year old form

He has trod a far from traditional route to the KYD with a maiden third on three year old debut followed by a turf mile maiden win back in February. His trainer though has always held him in high regard and after that maiden win was pitched into the TAM Derby. He ran well for a long way before weakening into eleventh in that race but his efforts can be forgiven as he came from a wide gate and was asked to go too fast too early at a time when early speed from the wide gate just wasn’t holding up. His trainer was finally rewarded in the BG Stakes when, with a far more favourable draw, he ran a fine second to Im Too Confident. He had a good trip that day and was beaten fair and square but it was a good effort and certainly confirmed him as a Derby prospect. His last chance to get in the field came in the IL Derby where he again ran an even race to be second again this time to the unqualified Christmas Damsel. Both of those efforts were pretty good although I do get the impression that that was the best of him and he may be fighting for place money rather than a win today

Work times

There is certainly nothing wrong with his three year old works but whilst he looks a tick off the best of these he has worked well enough over shorter trips to suggest he isn’t that far behind.

Breeding

His sire Il Miglio Fabro needs little introduction. A grade one winner in a great career on the track his stud career has been equally good with some great foals. Queen Lyphard, Condottieri, Il Matt Kemp, Duca Di Toscana and Kavorka have all made over a thousand dollars in prize money and this one joins a long line of very successful off spring.

His dam, Fiorenza, only won once on the track and has produced a few that can run in her 7 match ups but as usual there isn’t much on the dam side to go on.

Overall

He certainly has some good genes and after a poor early career he has certainly been blossoming as a three year old. I am not sure he has done enough to convince me he is a super star just yet but if he can improve just a little on his last two efforts he wouldn’t be far off the best of these.

 

19 Port On The Horizon, trained by D J C Racing Stables

Trainer

A relative ‘newbie’ D J C has only been around since 2012. Since then they have won 55 graded stakes with 6 grade ones and own the ‘super’ horse Niagra. With a relatively average overall win percentage of 13.6% they are currently running at 15.3% which isn’t the highest but considering the relative inexperience is a pretty good stat. With 840 career wins if it was enthusiasm that won this race then D J C would be the favourite and will be a popular winner if they can get one home.

Two year old form

Scraped home by a nose in a CD maiden on his second start it was clear very early on that this son of Risen Ruler was going to need an extreme trip to being out the best in him. Running home late in the Lafitte next time out he went to the Remsen as the forgotten horse and duly slaughtered them with a very strong one length win. He was put away after that big win as his trainer started dreaming of a shot at this race.

Three year old form

Returning to the track he took on The Withers on his seasonal debut but needed the run and ran a bit flat to be a never dangerous sixth. He again failed to impress in the TAM Derby on his second start struggling to get to the leaders and finishing fourth, though only beaten a length by Jack The Flipper. That wasn’t a bad effort but he still needed plenty of points to make this field so he was given one last chance to fulfil his potential in The Wood Memorial. Once again it was the trip that was the key as he wore them down and beat Divine Ad Broke by a half-length only getting on top inside the last furlong.

Work times

His 1.36 and 3 mile time is good enough for it not to be a negative and certainly gets him into the top flight but his works have never been that impressive so I don’t think you can put too much emphasis on them. His 6 furlong prep work was a pretty average 1.11 and 1

Breeding

His sire, one time TC challenger and grade one winner, Risen Ruler has struggled a little since going to the shed. Siring the winners of 72 races and $3000 his only stand out off spring is this one although to be fair he has only got two generations to look at so this could be the first of many KYD hopefuls. Risen Ruler loved this surface and trip so if he has his Fathers characteristics then that would be a huge plus.

His Dam, Officer Portia, was fairly average on the racecourse winning just once and has not even produced another winner from 6 foals so far.

Overall

Gelded before he even raced it was clear that his trainer wasn’t sure he would turn out as good as this but after that Remsen win he certainly put himself right in the picture for this race. I love the fact that this horse will love this trip and will see out every last yard so it is with confidence that I can say he will be running on strongly at the end. Whether he can get a decent position and whether he has the tactical speed to launch his late challenge remains to be seen but you have to be tough and a true router to win this race and he certainly ticks those boxes. No winner of the Wood memorial has ever won the KYD and with a nasty draw he will be taken a long way back before he sees the rail so you have to trust to some luck if you put your money on him. On the plus side this is one of the few in the field that will stay this mile and a quarter and despite some negatives I like his chances a lot.

20 Inspector Woof, trained by Saratoga Stud

Trainer

This trainer burst onto the scene back in 2008 and has been in and out of the game ever since. With 376 wins and $26000 in prize money they are no stranger to the big time a fact echoed by their 14 grade one wins. Both of their runners today were bought from Mb Stables so they haven’t had a lot of time to put their own training take on their preparation but there is no reason to think they won’t be ready for a big effort.

Two year old form

Another that was a maiden at two he ran three seconds in a row in good enough races to suggest there was plenty of ability going forward. In all of his seconds he ran close to the pace and over a trip so that is certainly a plus.

Three year old form

He is one of the raft of horses that Mb Stables threw into the KYD hat after very little form leading up to his qualifying race. Beaten in a maiden on seasonal debut he finally got his nose in front with a one length win in a six furlong GP maiden. That form did not look good enough with only a month left to get in the KYD but he surprised many with a great run to be second in the FL Derby. Beaten by Unsuited he again raced right up with the pace and kept on pretty well recording vastly improved speed figure in the process.

Work times

Managed a 1.36 and 4 as a two year old for the mile and recorded a 1.36 and 3 just prior to his FL Derby run. It was probably the 1.37 that he went after that excellent second that convinced Mb Stables to sell him but they weren’t terrible works and aren’t enough on their own to convince me he can’t win.

Breeding

His sire, Inspector Jacques, is by Pink Panther and was a maiden on the track and has only had a brief career in the shed. With only two generations to look at it is not surprising that this is the only significant son to appear just yet but I have a feeling that there is enough quality in the bloodline to add to that record pretty soon.

His dam Dogs Pacifier won seven times on the track and this is the only of her offspring to have raced so far so it is hard to judge her success as a mare.

Overall

If ever there was a dark horse in the race it is this one. The fact that Mb Stables sold him has to be a factor in his chances but with such a huge improvement after his maiden win he wouldn’t have to improve much more to win today. On the down side he had a perfect draw in the FL Derby and his works haven’t shown improvement so I would have to put him in my second tier of choices based on that but I hope that he proves that his recent sale was not a misguided one and runs his heart out for his new owner. Coming from gate 20 things will have to go his way but at 16.1hh he will have no problems in moving a few of these out of the way and he must have a punchers chance.

 

AE 1 Siberian Slew, trained by Teamf Racing

Two year old form

Although he won his debut as a juvenile he was pretty poor after that eventually being sold for just thirteen dollars at auction.

Three year old form

Two better efforts in fair overnight company prompted his owner to have a crack at KYD qualification and he managed to acquire some points in his only graded stake start in the BG Stakes last time out. Running on strongly he dead heated for second with Sindaco Di Firenze when a length behind Im Too Confident a much improved effort. Like a few others there is only that one run to recommend him so it is faith rather than evidence that you would back him in the KYD

Work times

He has managed a 1.37 for the mile this year but that puts him at the end of the pile as far as work times in concerned.

Overall

You have to say that adding his work times with a majority of his racecourse performances he just isn’t good enough to win today so even if someone drops out and he makes the field he may not make much impression.

AE 2 Kingslayer, trained by Double J Stables

Two year old form

Got a maiden win at the third attempt and then went onto to run three decent races in top juvenile company. His run in the Front Runner to be fourth was pretty good and he really wasn’t far off the best as a two year old.

Three year old form

Looks to be pretty unlucky at not getting into this field today. A nice win on seasonal debut in the Davis Stakes he then ran a super race to be third in the TAM Derby running on from nowhere after being taken right back from a wide draw. He was in the lead at the furlong pole in his last start in the AR Derby but got out battled and finished third beaten less than a length again running from a horrible draw but this time from on the pace. They were two excellent efforts from bad draws.

Work Times

A 1.36 and 3 before that AR Derby run further underlines how unlucky he is to not get in the race.

Overall

I would be putting this son of Pink Panther in the top six had he made the field. He ran two excellent races from terrible draws in his qualifiers and if by some chance, either rain or draw bias, he can get in the race I would be seriously looking at him to run big.

AE 3 Pink Devil, trained by Rouge River stables

Two year old form

A great second in The Brett Futurity he disappointed a little in the BC Juvenile running last from a tough gate. He was a little better in the Remsen next uo but was sold to Downwind Stables for eighty dollars as he failed to come on from his early graded stakes efforts.

Three year old form

Another who is a little unlucky to make the field he started with a good third in the Lecomte Stakes and then ran a cracker in the Risen Star ploughing through the mud to be second after trailing the field for a majority of the race. That run was huge but he still needed some points for the KYD so went to the LA Derby. Fate gave him a wide draw in that race and he failed to produce the same turn of foot he did in the Risen Star mud and could only manage eleventh. Sold for three hundred dollars to his current trainer after that race I think we may see him in The Preakness or the BEL rather than this race from the AE list.

Work times

His works are in the ball park, recording a 1.36 and 3 in late January and a 1.37 flat as a two year old.

Overall

This one has BEL written all over it but in the unlikely event he makes this field look for him late.

AE 4 A One, trained by Sanny Village

Two year old form

Proved that he wasn’t a turfer after winning his maiden on that surface by running a good third in the Nashua. He was sold by Wild Aces Stable shortly after that run for $140 to his current owner.

Three year old form

Ran well in the Sham Stakes before tackling the TAM Derby and finishing a great second. He went into plenty of black books that day and was quietly fancied to make the KYD in his last start in the FL Derby. Made favourite he was close enough but never quickened up and ended up whacking away for a somewhat disappointing sixth. Another one who will be a force in the PRK or the BEL should he make those fields it is unlikely we will see him in this race from AE 4

Work times

His 1.36 and 2 would’ve put him right in the reckoning for this race and plenty of trainers will be giving a sigh of relief he didn’t make the field after that work.

Overall

Another who finds himself on the outside looking in. If he ran he would run well based on his works and form but I doubt we will see him today.

 

SUMMARY:

Top 5 dirt mile work:

1     Spotted Cat 1.36

2 = Dominant Speed and Im Too Confident. 1.36 and 1

4 = Shed A Tear, Jack The Flipper. Divine And Broke, Decima and Sindaco Di Firenze. 1.36 and 2

 

Top 5 lifetime route SRF Figure

1   Divine And Broke 100

2 = Im Too Confident and Unsuited. 99

4 = Lukas Duke, Pinnacle West, Viking Shield, Spotted Cat, Sindaco Di Firenze, Port On The Horizon and Inspector Wolf. 98

 

Top 5 Overall HRP rating for 2015

1   Shed A Tear 103

2   King Cobra 101

3   Im Too Confident 98

4 = Jack The Flipper and Decima 97

 

Interestingly the only horse that appears in all three top fives is Im Too Confident, so if it is numerical stats that float your boat then he would be your natural choice. The other interesting factor is that there is only 4 points between the best route SRF and the worst with 96 being the worst and 100 being the best.

With every KYD a good case can be made for just about all the runners as you have to have earned your place to get in the race. Opinions will differ and my top 3 could just as easily be the last three but for the record I am going for:

1st Im Too Confident

2nd Spotted Cat

3rd Salt Lake City

Other considerations: Generals Companion, King Cobra, Dominant Speed and Port On The Horizon.

Good luck to all the owners, may your gaps be big and your horses run true..

 

Written and compiled by Stu from threshold



Categories: BC 2015, THE BREEDERS CUP

9 replies

  1. Excellent write up Stu.

  2. Nice job guys! Great reading!

  3. Excellent piece written, best article Ive read since Ive been playing the game, keep up the good work!

  4. Awesome write up Stu – HRP community is very lucky to have someone as dedicated as you to supplying such a great write up.

  5. Dogs Pacifier? Did you go to sleep early that night! Bred for success out of the infamous Dogs Bachelor Party! Good Luck Inspector Woof!

  6. Amazing work, Stu!

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