|RACE DATE||TIME||DEADLINE||TRACK||RACE ##||DISTANCE||SURFACE||RACE TYPE|
|5/16/2015||14:20||5/14/2015 3:00||WO||Race #5||1 1/16m||Dirt||Graded Stake|
Purse $150.000 For Three Year Olds.
1 Awesome Ruler – D J C Racing Stables
This race tends to be a hunting ground for horses that failed to make the KYD and today it is no different. This horse was a live fancy to make the Derby field after two close thirds in the Jerome and the San Felipe but his chance to make the race were scuppered in the SA Derby where he ran no race at all and finished a distant ninth. You have to like him on his close third in the San Felipe but his only public work since wasn’t awe inspiring and you have to take on trust the fact that he is back to that form.
2 Somersby – trained by Cedar Road
Ran an excellent fourth in the Spiral after getting a terrible draw and looked nailed on to get some compensation in the Coolmore Lexington but ran a strange race to keep on late for a close fifth. If he can get on the pace today I expect a big run but he hasn’t shown enough so far to be a confident pick.
3 Valparaiso Harbor – trained by Barcelona Farms
Another that looked on the brink of KYD qualification when a good third in the LA Derby but he failed to get the required points in the Illinois Derby and missed the big race. I actually think his closing fifth in the Illinois race was probably one of his best efforts and if he can get a good position early on today he could go very close late on.
4 Applause – trained by Alydar Stables
Takes a punt here after racing consistently in over nights so far in an 8 race career. With his last win four back at lowly ALB you would have to give him little chance on form but a couple of fast works have prompted an entry here and if that can pay off anywhere it’s at HRP.
5 Lil Old Louie – trained by Mb Stables
Raced in overnight company until given his chance to get in the KYD with the rest of the Mb Stables herd. His quick time win at TAM was backed up with a super effort in the FL Derby where he closed into fourth from an impossible draw. I actually think this was one of the best of Mb’s three year old non qualifiers so would expect at least a top three finish today, especially as it looks like his trainer has been let back in from the cold.
6 Flecha Hierro – trained by Team 7 Illusions
Lightly raced and a real dark horse here. He won his maiden after two a one shot chance to get into the KYD in The Rebel. He failed in the mud that day but got pretty close, close enough in fact to be given a squeak in today’s field. He has since made all to win an Allowance in a fast time and worked up a storm at WO last week. Looking past his exposed form you can give him a decent chance.
7 Just A Chance – trained by Mb Stables
A grade one winning two year old he was close up in the BC Juvenile and then took the LA Futurity making him well in the top five juveniles of last year. He reappeared in the Risen Star but hated the mud and ran well down the field but that run was easily forgiven and he was expected to get into the KYD when he took on the SA Derby last time out. He again hugely disappointed finishing a non-descript seventh and the question must now be asked as to whether he is an early type that just hasn’t trained on. His works are good enough to suggest he still retains ability but he is a tough pick to win today.
8 Miami Fun – trained by Sanny Village
Won the TUP Derby before his shot at Derby qualification in the LA Derby and actually ran pretty well to be a close fifth. With a 4 from 6 record you cannot doubt his chances today and a couple of sub 1.37 mile works suggest he isn’t that far behind the best of his generation. Now all he has to do is put in some racecourse evidence to support his promise but this isn’t an easy field and he will do well to win it from a tough draw.
Well this is a tough race to read. All of these were within a couple of lengths of making the KYD and any of these could’ve run a big race in it so it really is about which of the runners can now take the next step and maybe become a live BEL hope. You can make a case for the whole field so picking a winner is nearly impossible but I will go for some value and select Lil Old Louie to beat Flecha Hierro for a small exacta bet.