What to Expect in the Suburban

The Suburban Handicap – Grade II

 

RACE DATE TIME DEADLINE TRACK RACE ## DISTANCE SURFACE RACE TYPE

 

7/4/2015 14:20 6/29/2015 3:00 BEL Race #4 1 1/4m Dirt Graded Stake

 

Purse $500.00  For Four Year Olds And Upward.

 

1 Expect, trained by Mb Stables

Well the one thing we do expect in these big races is Mb Stables having multiple runners and today is no exception. This one follows the script as far as the stable runners tend to go in that he is lightly raced, has been running in below this grade and seems to have improved in leaps and bounds in recent months. Beaten in a sluggish time in a lowly TUP one win allowance just 3 months ago he left that form quickly behind in taking a 3 win Allowance at WO before winning the Steady Growth Stakes. Is this another star that is coming from nowhere for the stable? I guess only time will tell and whilst on form I cannot really give him much of a chance I am loathed to write him off.

2 George Washington, trained by Spankys Barn

This is exactly the sort of horse that should run well today. The winner of this very race one year ago carrying only one pound less his form has been pretty good this year and I see no reason why he can’t make a big fist of doubling up. He tuned up for this with a second in the grade two Brooklyn but has shown some inconsistencies this year which do cause a little concern. Surrounding that second and a win in the Razorback Handicap was, most recently, a very average run in the CT Classic. If you know HRP like I do though it is very easy to see that the wide draw beat him that day and with a much better post today I expect a big run from the defending champ.

3 Twisted Estate, trained by Mb Stables

The winner of last season’s Wood memorial and Preakness has struggled since those heady days. This season he looked like he was coming back to his best when a close seventh in the SA Handicap but has since run two horrible races and looks as if his best days are behind him. Whether he is here as a front runner for his stable companions remains to be seen but it is pretty hard to be too confident in his winning chance despite a lenient looking handicap mark.

4 Nefarious Leadership, trained by Mb Stables

This is another that has struggled with consistency this year after becoming a top prospect at the end of last year. A couple of warm up runs in open allowance company this year were full of promise with a nice win in the second but his run in the grade two CD was below par and left his trainer scratching their head. Another open allowance run for third last time out did nothing to convince anyone that he was back to his best and this attempt at a much longer trip may be the last throw of the dice for the trainer. If back to his best and if he gets the trip he will be a player here but that’s one too many ifs for me.

5 Kavorka, trained by Jerry Garcia Racing

After a three year old season that included a BG Stakes win, a close up fifth in the KYD and a gallant second in the Belmont this was placed close to the top of his generation. After struggling a little after those great runs he has come out this year as good if not better with a game win in the grade one SA Handicap and some decent efforts in the PIM Special and CT Classic. The one thing we have seen this year at HRP more than others is the inability of horses to string performances together and this is another who has shown inconsistency in his form. He has a far weight and is clearly classy enough to win this so if he is your choice you can have a fair bit of confidence in his chances.

6 Hyper Silver, trained by Night Rider Stables

Age has been no barrier to winning this season and this six year old is a spring chicken compared to some big race winners this year. His seasons best performance came in the grade three Excelsior which he won by a length over this trip. He didn’t run badly when a three length fifth in the Brooklyn last time but I don’t see that form as winning form despite a nice low weight in the handicap.

7 Wine And Dine, trained by D J C Racing Stables

Took a long time to win a maiden but improved with that win under his belt and has since been fairly good. Having said that he really hasn’t done anything to suggest this is any more than a game entry from the stable who loves to be in these big races. I liked his turf win in the Opening Verse last time out and with all of his wins coming on that surface you have to wonder whether he can get anywhere near these top dirt horses.

8 Outward Bound, trained by Eastern Equine

The top weight he is a late improver who has really hit his straps this year. Starting off with a third and a second in the Donn and SA Handicaps he then won the Op Handicap in his third season start by a game half length. Probably the most consistent performer in the field this year he did very well with a big weight in the grade one Foster Handicap last time out finishing third. His works are very good but a wide draw and top weight will be two big hurdles to overcome in an even looking field.

9 Steadyasshegoes, trained by Sanny Village

This is another one of those from a top stable that can produce a grade one winner from very little it’s tough to read this one’s form. Bought for $100 and then gelded he came out in a first start for the new stable and murdered a small field of sprinters in a state bred race. That is a long way from a distance handicap like this but he worked the mile pretty well in May and you have to be a little wary about this one if you write him off too soon.

SUMMARY

Well you either go for one of two results here. The winner comes from a couple of horses with no graded stakes form who come here with just a trainers name against their chances or the confirmed graded stakes performers who would if this race was being run in the real world be odds on to fill the first three places. Because I am old fashioned I am going for option two with Kavorka beating George Washington and Outward Bound.



Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES

%d bloggers like this: