The Birdstone Could Give Us a New BC Marathon Contender

The Birdstone  

 

RACE DATE TIME DEADLINE TRACK RACE ## DISTANCE SURFACE RACE TYPE

 

8/12/2015 14:00 8/10/2015 3:00 SAR Race #4 1 1/2m Dirt Stake

 

Purse $100.000 (plus up to $15.000 for NY-breds)  For Three Year Olds And Upward.

 

1 Steady Simon, trained by Greyfriars Stable

This trip is a tough one for three year olds at this time of year but this fella is fairly experienced against the grade and proved last time out that he likes a test of stamina. Having said that I am not convinced this race gives him the best chance of following up his SAR win as that was in a fairly modest time and in better class he had struggled at the end of his races off a stronger pace. He’s a bit above average in his age group so has a shot but I will be looking elsewhere for the winner.

2 Remember The Dragon, trained by Running Farms

This one has a pretty chequered career which saw him as a grade one winning two year old who was in the top ten of his generation. He came out as a three year old and after winning the San Felipe and finishing second in the SA Derby went into the KYD a big hope after a very promising early career. Sadly he failed miserably in the KYD and then lost his way for a long time before be pulled back in trip in a try for the BC dirt mile. He ran right back to his best in that race flying late for fourth. His four year old form has the look of a horse that was an early type because whilst he has done OK, most notably when fourth in the Donn Handicap, he has failed to reach the heights of his previous form. He is a grand type who would win this doing handstands if he could find his old self but I am not convinced he can.

3 Contract Killer, trained by Diablo Diablo

Well I said it before this trip can be tough for three year olds but this is another who looks like he needs a longer trip. A winner of three from seven he has yet to venture into this grade and to be honest his form isn’t much to look at. He won his last start over a mile and eighth so I think he will stay and with a few question marks over some of the runners he may sneak into a place.

4 Clementine Cottage, trained by A And I Stables

Found his legs last year and was claimed by this owner after winning three of his last four. He was sent to stakes grade but failed and his trainer immediately took him back to overnights where he had been so successful before. With four more wins he was given his chance again at stakes level and looked more ready this time winning the TX Mile and LS Handicap at grade three. Those two excellent wins gave him some hope when he took on the grade one Gold Cup last time out but he was a bit overawed and ended up eighth of the nine starters at the end. I would be giving this one a huge chance of he wasn’t carrying 130Lbs today which seems like a very big bridge too far for him.

5 Mambo Madness, trained by Dagg Ranch

A lightly raced five year old he is definitely one to keep an eye on in this contest. He ploughed through the mud in a mile and quarter allowance at SAR and won easily so this trip will certainly not bother him but really apart from that last win it would be tough to see too much more in his form. So you really have to go out on a limb if you are going to bet on this one but I have a sneaking suspicion that he is better than his form suggests and with plenty of question marks about the other runners he may be a value bet.

6 Socal Man, trained by Spinetingling

When Mb Stables goes to the free track to watch a twenty raced five year old gelding win only his fourth race and then fork out forty bucks for it you know there is something going on. Formerly trained by Spinetingling he had been failing in free track cheap claimers for a while and looked like nothing much until he ran over a mile and a half in a free track claimer. Strolling home by nine lengths that day you have to question the validity of HRP if he comes out and beats the track record and wins by the same here, but sadly that could easily happen. This may be the best buy of the year if he wins today and goes onto BC Marathon glory and his works have always suggested he had ability so that may well be the case but until he wins in this grade I can’t bring myself to select him.

SUMMARY

I have a nagging suspicion that Socal Man may be the new joke horse that goes onto to win the BC Classic but for now I will rely on common sense and select Mambo Madness to win today. Socal Man could well run big but I will go for Clementine Cottage to hump his huge weight into second with Socal man in third.



Categories: NG Stakes, STAKES ARTICLES

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