|The Ballerina – Grade I [BC]|
|RACE DATE||TIME||DEADLINE||TRACK||RACE ##||DISTANCE||SURFACE||RACE TYPE|
|8/29/2015||15:20||8/25/2015 3:00||SAR||Race #8||7f||Dirt||Graded Stake|
|Purse $500.000 For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward.|
1 Christine, trained by Captinj
This ultra-consistent four year olds has a better than 50% strike rate at finishing second but as much as I would love to see her run well here it looks like even second would be a stretch too far. Three of her career seconds have come in her last three starts running very well and being beaten narrowly in the Winning Colours and the Princess Rooney Handicap but those races were over six furlongs and that may be where her stamina runs out. She has bags of speed and this gate will suit her perfectly so I expect to see her on or near the front early and if a few have bad runs behind her she may just squeak a place.
2 Dashboard Rahy, trained by Australia Wide
It is great to see HRPs all-time greatest trainer back in the game and this filly could turn out to be their flagship going into the BC. Bought for a hundred bucks after 3 fair runs in overnights she has been a revelation since, winning three in a row culminating with the grade one Test last time out. She faces her toughest task to date against older fillies and mares today and she will have to be even better than her form already reads. Three year old fillies are faring pretty well against their elders so she should give a good account of herself and I guess we will find out today whether she really is a champion elect.
3 Last gesture, trained by Oval Express farms
A decent enough turf sprinter this four year old looks out of her depth here. A winner of three overnights in a row this year she came unstuck in the grade three Royal North Stakes finishing last in July and without any other worthwhile form to talk about it is hard to see her anywhere near the frame today. As a foot note horses that switch surfaces can on the odd occasion at HRP spring a massive surprise so if you want a way out left field bet then this may be the one?
4 Golden Broomstick, trained by Drabfantasy
A winner of four from eight this is another top three year old that spices this race up. She tried to take on older fillies back in April and whilst that was way too early she didn’t run too badly to be beaten only three lengths in the Wilshire Stakes. She took a fair break after that run and returned to the dirt over this trip to win an under strength Azelea Stakes by an easy three lengths. A grade one winner at two she has proven class and will be right in the mix for this race.
5 Sonoma, trained by Alabarda Stable
Matured late as a three year old finishing third in the grade one Beldame and winning the grade three Maple leaf in the second half of the season. She has continued that improvement at four winning the la Canada Stakes and placing in three other graded handicaps this year. She spent a lot of her career over longer trips but has sprinted in her last couple and certainly has enough pace for this trip. She hasn’t got the X Factor of some of these but she is an honest sort who will be fighting all the way to the line.
6 Wildly Fine, trained by Mb Stables
A grade two winner first up she ran a fine race in the Vinery Maddison to be a close fourth and stamp herself among the top older female sprinters. She has had a couple of easier races in overnights since winning one last time out in a fast time and those efforts will have done her no harm in the late season run up to the BC. She is hard to assess as a whole but her effort in the grade one over this trip puts her right in this and with Mb Stables at the virtual reins she will be right in the fight.
7 Danzig Ghost, trained by D J C racing Stables
This filly is such a gutsy sort and has some fine form behind her but has mostly flown under the radar approaching the sharp end of the season. Second in last year’s BC fillies and mares sprint she had become a bit of a nearly filly only winning four races from sixteen but placing at the top level for most of her career. That has all changed recently as she has won her last two in the Ruffian Handicap and most recently in the Princess Rooney Handicap. If she wins today she will be well and truly above the radar and as she has beaten most of these before that’s a distinct possibility.
8 Donegal Maid, trained by Barcelona Farms
A dual grade one winner this year it is crazy to think that she is having her best ever season in her eighth year. This year has seen the rise of several veterans who have improved beyond previous seasons and whilst some may think it a temporary measure I am not so sure we have seen the last of the super grey brigade. She blotted her amazing copybook last time up in the grade two Great Lady M Stakes when beaten by Millyon Mama but her wins in the Vinery Maddison and Humana Distaff were out of the top drawer. It would be amazing to see her add a third group one t her resume but that last start is making me nervous and I may look elsewhere for a winner.
9 Millyon Mama, trained by Pumpkin Racing
Having been beaten by Donegal Maid in the Humana Distaff and looking pretty average this season it was somewhat of a shock when she sauntered home an easy winner last time out in the Great Lady M Stakes. Without that win she would be only an outside chance today but the manner in which she put away that field was very impressive and we will just have to wait and see if she can do it again.
10 Noble One, trained by Mb Stables
Capped off an amazing run as a three year old with a brilliant third in the BC Sprint and that put her close to the top of the sprinting ranks. Eased into it this year she reappeared in a GP overnight where she was narrowly beaten and then took the grade three Whimsical Stakes by just under a length. Drawn wide in the Great Lady M Stakes she was shot out of the gate by the wide speed push and as usually happens she weakened down the stretch. She still managed second so it wasn’t a bad effort but with a wide draw again today the key will be how her trainer can slow her down a little through the first half of the race. She certainly has a winning chance and is probably the best worker in the race.
11 Chainsaw Monkii, trained by Downwind Stables
A consistent three year old in smaller races she is taking a big step up today and would do well to get in eth first six. Having said that she has speed and is working well so she has earned her place in this elite field.
12 Laffin In Texas, trained by Sanny Village
An interesting entry whose best chance is probably ruined by the draw. A winner of both the grade two Matron and FG Oaks over longer trips she has won over this trip in the Forward Gal so shouldn’t be inconvenienced. If she was drawn inside the six I would give her a big chance, with this draw I think the best she can hope for is a place.
Wow, what a race this should be with some very good three year old sprinters taking on some of the best older sprinting girls at the moment. As for the winner, well, I think Noble One may get revenge over Millyon Mama if her trainer can stop her shooting into the lead but failing that Dashboard Rahy may just wind the clock back for Australia Wide.