Can the Best Horses Beat the Worst Draw?

Monrovia Stakes – Grade II

SA 6 1/2f Turf

Graded Stake
Purse $200.000  For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward.

1 Pip Irish, trained by Chili King Stables
When this one won her maiden as a three year old and went on to run well in the Appalachian, The Honeymoon Stakes and the Lake George she looked destined to be a regular at this sort of level but that promise never really took off and she has been dropped into overnight company ever since. A consistent sort at that level she has always worked fast but struggles to put that into her races. A nice draw here may see her get into the money.

2 Nightmare Scare, trained by Winning Link Stables
Achieved a high speed rating when she took the Maddy Stakes last year but struggled a little to follow that up. After being bought by her current owner she overcame a wide draw to win the Mizdirection Stakes in her last start and looks to be right back on track. Her works have been really good and if she is in the same mood today she may take a bit of beating.

3 Maui Supreme, trained by Mb Stables
A lightly raced three year old she doesnt get a huge weight allowance here and the three pounds may not be enough. A winner of her last three at overnight level i have the feeling that her trainer os throwing her in here to find out just how good she may be.

4 Cheerful Goddess, trained by TwinTowersRacing
Reverted back to sprinting and ran her best race for sometime last time out. Her works are solid and she could spring a surprise but second in a one win allowance shouldnt be good enough to win here.

5 Viper Droid, trained by Allinthegate
Another lightly raced three year old trying to take advantage of the weight allowance she may find these a bit too good.

6 Zero Care, trained by Mb Stables
A winner of six from eleven she hasnt been tested at this level but has done well enough in ungraded races to suggest she has a chance. Beaten just a neck in an open allowance last time she isnt easy to weigh up on her recent works but her form is good enough to see her in at the finish.

7 Fusion Call, trained by Delta Farms
A more established type than some of these she won the grade three las Cienegas over this course and distance on seasonal debut and then followed that with a very close second in the grade two Royal Heroine Stakes. Those two efforts are probably the best recent form in teh race and if you ignore her last poor run on softer ground you must put her in your top two atleast.

8 Ranch, trained by Racing Love
The third three year old and she has very similar credentials to the other two. A good second in the Giants Causeway and a strong allowance win over course and distance set her a little above them and the three pound allowance put her right in this.

9 Mars Explorer, trained by Diablo Diablo
A solid consistent sort who always runs well she was just under a length behind Ranch in the Giants Causeway but gets 5Lbs off her today and that may be enough to see the form reversed. I worry about the wide draw but she slots nicely into the top three regardless.

SUMMARY
The best three horses are drawn widest here, the question is are they better enough to overcome the big disadvantage of the draw. My head says steer clear but i am still going to go for 7 8 9 to finish 1 2 3 in some order or another.



Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES

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