The Queens Plate Stakes
WO Race #11 1 1/4m Dirt Stake
Purse $1,000.000 For Three Year Olds Foaled In Canada.
1 Key To Success, trained by Smokey Stover
After winning an allowance at the end of last year this colt was starting to show promise and confirmed that with a decent win in an ungraded race at the start of the year. After another good effort when third he tried the IL Derby and ran a cracker after trying to make all to be beaten a half length into second. Unfortunately that improvement curve was not continued in his last start where he was a disappointing sixth and last in the Marine Stakes. His works are OK but he may be just a little below the class needed in this race.
2 Antonym, trained by Team7 Illusions
Winning of just one, a maiden claimer, he looks out of his depth in this field. beaten into fifth in a claimer last time out it would be a huge surprise if he made the top 4.
3 Positive Thinking, trained by Mb Stables
Ran a terrible race in the mud of the KYD but put that behind him with a commanding win in the BEL last time out. He beat the top two three year olds in that race and it would be a shock to see him not in the top three here. His works are sharp and whilst this race may come a bit quick for him he clearly has the class to take top honours. It looks like only rain will stop him.
4 Laffin Parrot, trained by Mo Mentum Farm
Fairly consistent in overnights he was sold for $100.000 before a first attempt at black type last time out when narrowly beaten in the Sir Barton Stakes. That was a good effort and his works are good enough to win this so i would be keeping a close eye on the odds for this one as he may turn out to be the value bet.
5 Danzig On The Rocks, trained by Mb Stables
Bought for nearly $400.000 at auction he failed to qualify for the TC when sixth, only beaten a length, in the SUN Derby. That run was much better than his final placing and he confirmed that with a comprehensive win in the Coolmore Lexington. He looked even better in his last start when taking the PIM Special and he looks the main danger to the BEL winner.
6 Moving Around, trained by Alydar Stables
Bought for $450.000 from Mb Stables he hasnt managed a win since but has run pretty well in good company. A close fifth in the Wood Memorial he then ran a cracker to be a narrowly beaten third in the Peter Pan. Ignore his last race which was a hail mary on the turf he is back to his favoured surface here and could be one of the main dangers to an Mb Stables 123.
7 Profound Connection, trained by Mb Stables
Looked special when winning the grade one LA Futurity as a two year old he showed he had trained on by taking the Davis Stakes in February and the TAM Derby in March. It all went a little wrong after that as he ran a poor race in the FL Derby and then was beaten out of sight in the KYD. If he is back to his best then he will be pushing his stable companions.
8 Gemini Shadows, trained by NightRider Stables
He has run into some decent form since being claimed for just ten dollars and has proved consistent at a decent level since. His last start win in the Plate Trial showed he could act on this course and distance and his winning time certainly gives him a decent chance in this. If you took out two of the three Mb Stables runners i would say he was a certainty for top three but he faces a stiff task today against some of the top three year olds in the game.
9 City Ball Drop, trained by Pan Farms
This is a really interesting runner and if there is going to be a new three year old champ crowned then it may be him. With only three starts you could be forgiven in thinking this was a hopeful entry but two of those runs were out of the top draw and he is working very nicely indeed. He was a closing sixth in the Wood Memorial but ran much closer to the pace last time to win the Queenston Stakes in a fast time. The outside draw will be the big question mark for him but wide draws have been doing better recently so it may not be the death wish it used to be.
10 Cube Zero, trained by Yahudi Stables
Bought for $250.000 after a good second in the Spiral he then ran a poor race in the AR Derby to finish 13th in his only start for the new owner. His works remain competitive and if he can overcome the draw then he may be able to get into the top four.
Well there are a few that you can put a line straight through and about 5 that have a chance. If this was real life i would be looking for odds for an Mb Stables 1-2-3 as his horses have clearly the best form in the race. But of course, this is HRP, so it wont be that simple. City Ball Drop and Gemini Shadows look the best chances to split up the powerhouse stable runners but i really do think it will only be some random act that can beat atleast one of them. Positive Thinking won the BEL in good fashion but can be hit and miss so if you fancy a little gamble then maybe going outside the box could be the way to go.
Good luck to all and lets hope that luck isnt the main factor in the result.