Surely Five Pounds Cannot Stop the Hanging Tree, Can It?

ONT Matron Stakes – Grade III
WO   Race #2   1 1/16m   Dirt   Graded Stake
Purse $125.000  For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward.

1 Dont Freak Out, trained by Eastern Equine
Very lightly raced in the past two seasons, she managed a win in the grade three Doubledogdare Stakes last April, but wasn’t raced again in 2016. After a long break she came out as a five year old in January to run a nice third in overnight company but has had another 6 months off since then. It could have been her small stature that has kept her trainer from over racing her, but she did win the SUN Oaks at three so her size clearly didn’t bother her. Whatever the reason for her light career, she has plenty of ability and could spring a surprise.

2 Brian Fellow, trained by Wolfs Den
Not tested at this level, she was claimed for just $2.500 in January but has proved a solid investment since. A winner last time of a very nice Open Allowance at WO, she is obviously improving at a fast rate and with the three year old allowance is right in this race.

3 Maestra Rose, trained by Gdp Inc
Another one taking advantage of the weight allowance, she battled gamely to win the Irish Stakes last time after a couple of lower level wins. Wouldn’t have a hope without the weight advantage, but as always at HRP, that will bring her into the picture.

4 Summer Sampler, trained by John Henry
The winner of last years Raven Run at grade two, she ran a nice race in the BC fillies and mares sprint to be seventh. Her form has been solid this year, culminating in a good second in the Bed O Roses Handicap last time, but a quick look at her work times suggest that the three year old weight allowance will make it very hard for her to make the frame.

5 Two For One, trained by Mb Stables
Just four starts have seen two wins for this filly. A good allowance win was followed by a decent second in the Trillim Stakes behind Stacked, but I think we will see her ridden with more restraint today, which may see her turn the tables. The weight allowance brings her into the race.

6 Stacked, trained by Smokey Stover
Placed at graded level last year, she has a touch of class about her and proved that last time with a good win in the Trillion, beating Two For One. Looks the best three year old in the field and with the weight allowance that may well be enough to see her win.

7 The Hanging Tree, trained by Mb Stables
Nothing should get near this filly, a dual grade one winner which was only just beaten in the grade one Phipps last time. If this were real life, she would win doing handstands, but the 5Lb weight allowance she has to give the three year olds is like carrying ten bags of concrete under her saddle, and she will have to be on top of her game from the wide draw to win.

SUMMARY
The Hanging Tree is ten lengths better than this field, but that means very little at HRP with the three year old weight allowance in play. You have to pick her just because she is so much better, but it wouldnt be a shock to see one of the three year olds pull out a career best performance.



Categories: Grade III, Races, STAKES ARTICLES

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