Alcibiades – Grade I [BC]
KEE Race #2 1 1/16m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $400.000 For Fillies Two Years Old.
1 Diminuendo, trained by Smokey Stover
This time of year comes round and we start seeing the two year olds running 1.37 and less for the dirt mile in work outs. It always throws me because a couple of years ago i remember the excitement when a three year old broke 1.37 in the run up to the KYD. So as the two year olds mature into three year olds about this time of year (thanks to the fast development we have now) it is hard to work out the value of a fast work.
Now all that rambling was simply because here we have a perfect example of how difficult it is to work out these races. A 1.38 and 2 worker in July after two maiden losses she then changed hands and went on to win a statebred maiden and low and behold just a couple of months later and she is working 1.37 flat. So how do we rate her for this race? Well she won in the mud and hasnt achieved more than an 81 rating so that doesnt help so it really is all about that one work time and yes, disregarding all her races and all her other works she has the ace draw, top jock and along with that super work has a winning chance.
2 Candy Broomstick, trained by John Henry
She gutted out two narrow wins in lower grade before trying black type in the Breeders Stakes but though she was only beaten two lengths she could only manage a never dangerous ninth. She then found a buyer in John Henry who tried her in the ONT Debutante but after showing speed she weakened into fifth. Her work times are a bit last month and though her trainer clearly holds her in high regard i cant see her in the first few today.
3 Big Fan, trained by Mb Stables
Has had two runs for one win but both of those runs have been in the wet so it is hard to evaluate them. Its much easier to look at the fact that she is by the successful sire Commanding and has some decent works to her name along with the jock of the moment Oritz jr that makes her a winning proposition.
4 Confidently In Love, trained by Mb Stables
This must be the stable number one after winning the grade one DMR Debutante last time out. Though on paper that form looks great and she is working clearly better than her stable mate she is still a few lengths behind the maiden winner Diminuendo on her mile work time which is enough to hold back on piling the cash on her. She won that grade one like this trip would suit though and a decent draw, last years award winning jockey and the champion trainer suggest she would be an obvious choice.
5 Duel At Dawn, trained by Team 7 Illusions
Has been super consistent at overnight level winning her last two and placing in her other three. However, she hasnt been beyond 5 furlongs and a comparison between her five furlong works and her mile works suggest she wont be suited by this trip.
6 Blue Jeans, First Class Stable
She may be an attractive bet if you are looking for longer odds. A winner on debut she was then staying on from a long way behind in the Debutante before her last start where again she picked up from behind and ran on well for third in an allowance. Those runs tell me she is crying out for this trip and i rather like her work times, watch for her late.
7 Speeding Age, trained by Cherrytree Hill Farm
Another consistent sort in lower grade she gets her chance at the big time today and certainly deserves it. Her running style so far suggests she will love this trip and her works arent the worst so whilst she has only average form at a lower level a bit of luck and maybe a rabbit or two and she could come in to it.
8 Amen Sista, trained by D J C Racing Stable
Along with the horse in the one box this filly has the fastest mile work and that can be a telling factor in these races. The difference between her and Diminuendo is she has proven she has the hidden class gene with a solid third in the grade one Spinaway and that may be enough to give her the edge. I also like that she raced on the pace from a wide gate in her maiden win and still had plenty left to win, something that is pretty hard to do at HRP.
9 Sweet Oly, trained by Fractious
This filly represents the great conundrum of HRP horse racing. In her last two starts she ran a very similar pace in races that were won in very similar times from very similar draws. In one she was a five length twelfth in the other she was a two length winner. Taking out that poor effort in the Adirondack she would be unbeaten with two stakes wins and could easily start as favourite for this race. So what stopped her in the grade two? Was it the class gene? Was it the jockey? or was it the change of adds from a shadow roll to lasix and bute? One thing is for sure she IS good enough to win, the only question is will she.
10 Phunny Devil, trained by Asgar
Stuck out in the cheap seats this filly has won twice and does have a decent mile work to her name but i am struggling to place her in the top four. She will need lots of things to go her way to get some of this purse.
For me this is between Amen Sista and Diminuendo with the Mb pair chasing them home. I guess the only question is will one of the Mb pair be setting the pace and what will that pace be?