The Suncoast Stakes
TAM Race 5 1m 70 yards Dirt
Purse $150.000 For Fillies
Three Years Old
An evenly matched field of 10 fillies tries to score some Oaks points on the Davis undercard at Tampa. This field is not as accomplished as the fields that ran in Oaks preps last weekend, but it should still make for an exciting race.
1 Harsh, trained by Mb Stables
First of two from Mb Stables this filly has gone 1 for 7 in her career. Has been competitive in several stakes races but has been unable to breakthrough with a win. Her last race was a 4th place finish where she was forced wide and was unable to challenge her stablemate. With her connections and post she must be considered a threat but I think others make more sense.
2 Gabrielle, trained by Alydar Stables
Has won an impressive 3 of 5 lifetime including 2 overnight stakes races. This will be her first attempt around two turns, but works would seem to indicate she can handle the distance. Her last outing was a 5th place finish in the Grade 2 Santa Ynez where she was only beaten ¾ of a length. She will have to carry an extra two pounds but looks to be one of the main contenders.
3 Crown Of Light, trained by Estero Farms
High earner in the field has been in the money in 6 of 8. Most of her damage, including a 2nd place finish in the BC , has been done on the turf while this race will be run on the dirt. Trainer felt that with limited turf races this was as good a time as any to see if she could handle the surface change. Prepped for this with a very fast mile work but again it was on the turf. A wildcard in here that could be first or last.
4 Raven Mist, trained by Crocker Ggs
Making her 5th career start here she comes in on a two-race winning streak. Both of those wins were at 6F and in her one attempt at routing she vied for the lead before weakening to finish 3rd. Not showing any mile works so hard to tell if distance will be an issue but she seems to be improving so must give her a chance.
5 Moon Condo, trained by Hambletonian Stable
In the money in 7 of 9 including an impressive 2nd in the Santa Ynez where she beat Gabrielle. This will be her first attempt around two turns as well and her conform indicates that this may be further than she wants to go. A recent mile work was either an experiment or another indication that this is out of her reach. I am going to have to see her prove it at this distance before recommending.
6 Sweetgrass, trained by D J C Racing Stable
Another lightly raced filly making her 5th career start has 2 wins in 4 attempts. Both of her wins have come in two turn affairs albeit at lower level tracks. Works may be a tick slower than a couple of others but certainly not something that she can’t overcome. She will need to improve a bit to get home first but that is well within the realm of possibility.
7 Broken Kin, trained by Blazin D
1 of 6 lifetime with all but one of her starts coming on the turf. Her last race was her lone dirt start and she did get a career best 92 speed rating while finishing 2nd. With works and speed ratings both slower than most in the field I will look elsewhere for the winner.
8 Sweeping Slew, trained by Toppedout
This filly has been worked hard having already run 14 times in her young life. Had wide draws in her two most recent efforts that limited her chances but she has yet to win while going long. Seems to want to be out in front so I imagine she is going to be on the lead and will take them as far as she can.
9 Morning Tea, trained by Mb Stables
The second Mb entry broke her maiden in a state bred race which was her first attempt around two turns. Speed ratings have been improving every race but are still quite a bit below the strongest in here. Would like her chances better from an inside post as I can see her either getting caught wide or dropping to the back.
10 Sicilian Maccu, trained by Tiratzo
This filly on the far outside has managed 1 win in 6 starts. Last out was nosed by Broken Kin while finishing 5th only beaten a length. Another one who seems to like it out front so with this post may be pushed out to the lead. Not out of the question but also probably not the winner.
This seems to be a well-balanced field and will probably come down to who has improved most from their last race which is hard to predict. I will look for the 10 and 8 to be setting the pace with a pack not far behind them. I think Gabrielle can work out the perfect trip and get home first.