The Vagrancy Handicap – Grade III
BEL Race #3 6 1/2f Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $200.000 For Fillies And Mares Four Years Old And Upward.
1 Roxy Lisa Canadian Racing Velazquez J R
A consistent filly that has done well since being upped in grade. She has shown great versatility running well in the slop over a mile and an eighth as well as performing strongly in fast run seven furlong races. On the face of it this trip may prove a bit sharp but she showed plenty of pace in the Raven Run last year and again in the Vinery Madison this year so i am not overly worried about the six and a half. A proven performer in any going she will be strong from the one gate.
2 Long December D J C Racing Stables Ortiz I Jr
Her trainer likes to ‘give them a go’ and this is just the type that the stable has the odd success with. Claimed for $35 she has run once for the new trainer when an all the way winner of the ungraded Sis City over a mile. Her works are very strong and she looks the type to step up into this grade.
3 Various Mb Stables Pennington F
The winner of the SUN Oaks and Las Virgenes last year she has returned to sprinting recently but without the success of her three year old season. The fact that her trainer has been flip flopping around with her suggests they are looking for something and it is just a matter of whether they have found it yet.
4 Kapai Kapow Grimley Castellano J J
A lightly raced four year old who has yet to break through at this level. She handles the wet has a fair draw and will be competitive but i am not sure she is up to the best of these.
5 Steel Calling Mb Stables Albarado R J
A winner over this trip in January she is another from the stable who has been unsettled in her speciality trip. She put up a good effort to win the Classy and Smart Stakes over a mile and sixteenth last year but has yet to set the world alight at this trip. She has the works so she has a chance but its hard to work out just how good that chance is.
6 Rocket Fuel Team 7 Illusions Franco M
A consistent sort who just got beat in a photo finish for the Sugar Swirl last year she is a through and through sprinter and that may be the winning of this race. Her draw wont help her and the top weight even though its only by a pound will also anchor her in true HRP style. If she can overcome all the things that can stop her she is good enough to win.
7 Mortality John Henry Bejarano R
This filly is a bit of an enigma. She was a bit chance in the KYO last year after winning the Alexander and then just getting beat in the Ashland but although she ran a good sixth in the big one she lost her way a little and struggled until a back to form win in the Chilukki at the end of the year. She has taken on the best so far this year and come up a bit short so it really is a matter of which Mortality turns up today. At her best she could win at her worst she will be down the field, take your pick.
An interesting race with a few sprinters taking on some routers who are looking to find their mojo over a sprint trip. I think Roxy Lisa will run well enough to win here but there are a whole bunch of 1.10 and 2 workers that just need to be on form to win so its a long way from being clear cut.