Which Three-Year-Old Will Take The MTH Stakes

The MTH Stakes – Grade II
MTH   Race #2   1 1/8m   Turf   Graded Stake
Purse $200.000  For Three Year Olds And Upward.

1  Sleet    Fractious    Ferrer J C

As people begin to cherry pick these all aged races with their three year olds they are looking for the biggest weight allowances. This race has a 7Lb swing for three year olds and that is more than enough to make it very hard for the older generation. Having said that it is difficult but not impossible for this very nice four year old who has run two very nice races in his last two starts. He won the Hill prince last year over this trip and as i alluded to earlier he has put together a couple of very nice runs this season after being bought for a very cheap looking $20.000 from Maxmillion Farm. The first was a very close second in the Canadian Turf where he failed by just a head when closing hard down the stretch and then he was sixth but only beaten a length in the Makers Mark Mile again finishing off very strongly. This trip certainly should suit and he may just give the three’s a run for their money.

2  Nitemare    Smokey Stover    Arroyo A S

The first of the three’s he was only beaten four lengths in the BC Juvenile Turf last year and has done enough this year to suggest he will take some part in this race. He took the Columbia Stakes before running on well to be second in the Transylvania Stakes, both efforts pretty good and both suggesting this trip will suit. His 1.34 and 4 work last time was pretty strong and whilst he may not be the best on paper he will be there at the end.

3  Bandito    TwinTowersRacing    Cancel E

This colt hasnt been on the turf for some time concentrating instead on the TC Chase. He didnt do too badly closing hard to be beaten just three lengths in the Fountain Of Youth and managing fourth in the Withers. Like Nitemare he has put in a 1.34 and 4 work so clearly wont mind the switch in surfaces today and with the weight allowance should be very competitive.

4  City Ball Drop    Pan Farms    Bravo J

The winner of the Twilight last year and then a close second in the HOL Derby he is probably the best on paper for this race and like Sleet finished like a train in the Makers Mark Mile to be beaten just a length and nose to nose with that horse. They should be close again but you only have to look at his last mile work at 1.34 and 3 to realise what a mountain these older horses have to climb against inferior three year olds in receipt of big weight allowances. I think he just about gets this trip OK and should be there or thereabouts.

5  Early Retirement    Mb Stables    DeCarlo C P

Showed what these three year olds are going to do to the olders at this time of year last out when flying late to be second to another three year old in the all aged San Francisco Mile. Before that great effort he had taken a statebred stakes race to break his maiden and took a one win allowance at FG so whilst not the flashiest of form good enough with the weight allowance to see him right in this, especially when you notice his last work over six furlongs.

6  Ifitsfreeitsforme    Maxmillion Farm    Pedroza B

The turf maestro Maxmillion Farm looks to carry on his superb run in the turf stakes races with this surprise winner of the Transylvania last time out. He hadnt looked up to that sort of form before that win but he had been pretty good and consistent and once Maxmillion sprinkled his magic green dust on the gelding the win was inevitable. The outside will test but with a decent trip there is no reason he cannot add to that win.

Though the four year olds look the best on paper we have come to the time of year where we start to ignore older horses in these stakes races. With the three’s working within a tenth of the fours and in receipt of 7Lbs it really is a 4 horse field. Of those four three’s there is very little between them but you can’t do any better than pick a Maxmillion runner on the turf so its Ifitsfreeitsforme, for me.

Categories: Grade II, Races, STAKES ARTICLES

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