Pen Mile Result May Depend on the Weather

PEN Mile – Grade II
1m   Turf   Graded Stake
Purse $500.000  For Three Year Olds.

1  Name Drop    Mb Stables    Colon L H

As the three year olds start to dominate races we start to look for the turf miler that will challenge the older champions and this race is always a good one to launch a three year old from. This first of three entries from Mb Stables has already gone some way to that goal by winning the American Turf last time out but there is something we have to consider even with two excellent wins in his last two black type races. His last gasp effort to win the American Turf and another strong late finish to take the Pasadena Stakes were both great efforts but both were on off tracks and the question remains about him being able to repeat that form if the ground comes up dry for this race. His works certainly suggest he can and the booking of L H Colon who is in great form on the turf is a big pointer too.

 

2  Inseert The Flirt    Mb Stables    Pennington F

Mb Stables gets the two inside draws and the two best turf jockeys in the game. i wouldnt mind a shred of that sort of luck but with the lucky part over its now down to a horse race albeit with plenty in the stables favor before the off. This runner is a different proposition to Name Drop as whilst his works are similar aka the HRP norm his form is nowhere near as good on paper. Well beaten in the Dania B on soft ground he found the same conditions in the Bourbon when soundly beaten and unlike his stable mate he clearly hates the rain. Outside of those efforts he is pretty good at overnight level so the trainer will have his bases covered whatever the weather.

3  Cheapsnake    John Henry    Prat F

There are often a few that have failed in the TC qualification chase that have a go on the turf and it tends to go to the one extreme or the other. He sandwiched a win in between some average efforts on the dirt so he has shown some ability but as for his ability on turf we can only go on the works. A 1.34 ad 3 work for the turf mile suggests he can act on it but under 1.35 works on the turf are two a penny at the moment so we wont really know whether he improves on the turf till he runs on it.

4  Creepy Time    D J C Racing Stables   Court J K

DJC tried this one on the dirt in the Battaglia Memorial and he did pretty well to close hard for third but he has always looked better on the turf so he didnt persevere with him and sent him back to the turf after that effort. He closed hard in the Transylvania to be sixth and then did so again in the Opening Verse when a close third both good runs but both suggested a mile is on the sharp side for his running style. A 1.34 and 2 turf mile work looks pretty good but as i said earlier there are claimers doing those sort of work times so its best not to get too excited about it. He will be running on at the death but may leave it too late.

5  Cobra Skull    Smokey Stover    Ortiz J L

This one won an $8.000 maiden claimer at the start of the year and didnt manage to win again until a pretty crazy offer of $120.000 was accepted last month. Smokey Stover must’ve seen something in him but its hard to make a case for him in this field today. A 1.34 and 4 work on the turf mile wasnt bad but merely confirms that claimers are working those times as well as top class horses so its best not to load up with too much fools gold.

6  Siberian Prince    Sir Daniel Martin    Espinoza V

Last seasons BC Juvenile Turf winner he had a couple of goes on dirt to try and get into the KYD but whilst he ran pretty well it was obvious he wasnt the same horse on dirt. Since coming back to the turf he has proven he is every bit as good as he was as a two year old winning the San Francisco Mile  and then very nearly winning the San Simeon over an inadequate sprint trip. I think he will be the biggest danger to the Mb runners today and will win if in the right frame of mind and with the usual dose of HRP luck.

7  Regret Nothing    Estero Farms    Maldonado E

Despite a gutsy win in the TAM Derby and a very good run in the KYD from a nightmare draw he has always looked like a miler. The winner of The Bourbon on soft ground and the TAM Derby on fast he doesnt seem to mind any conditions or surfaces and a 1.34 and 1 work just a week ago suggest he is ready to get back to the grass. There is no doubt the stable is flying at the moment and this is a very good horse indeed  who i can see going on the pace and gutsing out a win.

8  Stop Rioja    Smokey Stover    Alvarado J

Another one bought by Smokey Stover at what looks like a high price. The winner of just one race he ran very nicely to be second in the Transylvania from a wide draw but was terrible in the soft ground in The American Turf when beaten out of sight. His works are strong but maybe a few ticks off the best and a wide draw wont help his cause.

9  Worst Case Scenario   Mb Stables    Centeno D E
The third of the MB Stables runners he gets the wide draw so may be sacrificed as a leader despite having some very nice form. Close up in all his efforts to get into the KYD, he was second in the Lewis Stakes and only beaten a length in the Wood Memorial when fifth. His works are very strong and put him right in this but he will have to be a length better than these from the wide draw and i am not sure he is.

SUMMARY
You have to respect the Mb three and any one of them could easily be the winner but just to be different i am going for Siberian Prince to beat Regret Nothing in this typically tight race.



Categories: Grade II, Races, STAKES ARTICLES

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