The Acorn May Be a Tough Nut to Crack for the Punters

The Acorn – Grade I
BEL   Race #7   1m   Dirt   Graded Stake
Purse $700.000  For Fillies Three Years Old.

1  Five Million    TwinTowersRacing   Pennington F

Bought for just $15.000 at auction she scrambled home in a turf allowance last time but is given her chance on a dirt surface and in a  grade one this time. On her turf form i would give her an outsiders chance but on dirt and at this level i can’t make a case for her.

2  Coldpack    John Henry    Saez L

Yet to really break through at this level she has run a few good races but its hard to put her too far up the order today. She probably ran her best career race last time out which is a good sign staying on to be a close fifth in the Eight Belles but this mile may be a stretch for her stamina especially at grade one and a sluggish work over the trip last time tends to back that theory up.

3  Most Charming    Mb Stables    Ortiz I Jr

Lightly raced she has just got better and better in her seven races and capped her record off with a brilliant second in the KYO last time out. Running from the 13 gate she was taken back rather than going on pace and ran home very strongly to be beaten just a half length. Previously she had won the FG oaks nicely from a  better draw and with an ideal gate today will take all the beating.

4  Lake Wendigo    Night Rider Stables   Maragh R

Lightly raced she is a bit of an unknown at graded level but has been doing very well in the lucrative world of statebred stakes racing. An impressive winner of the FL Sire Stakes My Dear in the mud as a two year old she was bought by her owner in April for $110.000 and duly won another state bred stakes race in the Ivanavinalot in a driving finish. Her best chances may come with rain but she is working well enough in the dry to make her an interesting entry.

5  Manifest    Smokey Stover    Leparoux J R

Bought from Mb Stables for an expensive looking $550.000 after placing third in the Forward Gal  she looked a good buy when taking the HoneyBee next up but has struggled a little in her last two starts when asked to step up to grade one level. However, whilst that may, on the face of it suggest she is not up to this a closer look at her form suggests that if the ground stays dry she may just prove her purchase price wasnt so expensive. She tried to make all in the Ashland on a muddy track and predictably weakened and then on an off track in the KYO went to the back and ran on to be beaten just three lengths in seventh. Better ground today along with a decent draw should see her at her best and she may turn out to be one of the main contenders.

6  On The Square    Crocker Ggs    Talamo J

She was running really consistently right up to her last start but ran very poorly in the KYO and i guess without any other information we would have to put that  down to the off track. If you ignore that run then her second in the GP Oaks was very good and a 1.36 and 4 work at the beginning of the month suggests that with a  faster track she would be far more competitive in this race.

7  Diplomatic Chaos    Winning Link Stables   Bejarano R

The winner of six from seven she was bought at auction for only $57.000 and has since landed two graded stakes. Her last start win was in fact a dead heat first in the Eight Belles but that was after a gutsy win in The Beaumont and she is certainly on the upgrade. I think this trip may stretch her stamina but she is game and tough and will be in this race for a long time.

8  Pumpernickel Basil   D J C Racing Stables   Lanerie C J

A decent sort she hasnt really got near this sort of level before but did run nicely in the Star Shoots last time out. Her works are OK but she may find herself outclassed by a couple here.

9  Flying Squirrel    Angelos Stable    Garcia Alan

A consistent sort who ran well to be beaten just a neck by Diplomatic Chaos in the Beaumont she, like many of the runners has a couple of performances that give her a chance but on the whole looks outclassed by the top runners. She clocked a 1.36 and 4 in a recent work out over this trip but works seem to mean nothing these days as all the horses in the field seem to work similar times. I give her a sneaky chance but can’t recommend her.

10  Helping People    Mb Stables    Gallardo A A

Dead Heated with Diplomatic Chaos in the Eight Belles which puts her noses and necks amongst the chances. She has won six from seven and placed in the other effort so clearly knows where the line is and seems to be improving nicely for the champion trainer. Untried over this trip she may fins herself doing the job of pacemaker for her stable companion so her chances may rely on her trainers choices.

11  Jokes On You    Smokey Stover    Albarado R J

Another one of the massive purchases made by the trainer this one cost $475.000 from Mb Stables after winning the SA Oaks. She ran in the KYO from a wide draw and didnt do too bad to finish fifth but may not have liked the off track so should be considered if the rain stays away. She worked the standard 1.36 and 4 so must go into the big chances pile.

12  Ivanka                 Winning Link Stables   Geroux F

Was only a length behind Jokes On You in the SA Oaks but was beaten nine more lengths in the KYO by the same horse suggesting she may struggle to turn the table at this fourth attempt. The funny thing is she had beaten that horse by two length in the Las Virgenes in the race before that once more showing how crazy inconsistent the form is among these top horses. A 1.36 and 3 work suggests she is back to her best but a tough draw wont help her today and if you like her you will need things to go her way.

13  La Terrifiant    Our Athletes    Velazquez J R

Last seasons BC fillies Juvenile winner by an easy two lengths she looked to be struggling this season but bounced back to her brilliant best in the KYO last time when a game third beaten just three quarters of a length. She clearly retains atleast her two year old ability but the nightmare draw will make it very hard for her to turn the tables on Most Charming.

Just about all the stakes form criss crosses so much in this race that its impossible to pull one name out of the hat on bare form. Add in the fact that all the top contenders are working the same and you are left with the draw and who gets lucky. On that basis i am going for Most Charming and Manifest to fight out the finish.

Categories: Grade I, Races, STAKES ARTICLES

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