Can Manifest Beat the Draw in The Alabama?

The Alabama – Grade I
SAR   Race #7   1 1/4m   Dirt   Graded Stake
Purse $600.000  For Fillies Three Years Old.

1  Goosebumps    Smokey Stover    Smith M E

I have always liked this filly but she has yet to really live up to her two purchase prices of $300.000 and $400.000. The most recent buyer is Smokey Stover and whilst this is a nice sort i rather think she was bought for her genes than her ability on the track. She ran well when a very close second in the IOWA Oaks last time but she was a beaten favourite that day and that did look her best chance of picking up a graded stakes race. A nice sort but i dont think she is a winning chance today.

2  Blue Jeans    First Class Stable   Albarado R J

She has proved a little inconsistent in her career but that may be down to her running style rather than her desire to win. A joint winner of the Black Susan on a wet track she wont be scared of some moisture but she has run well enough on a dry track to suggest she will handle that too. I liked her effort in the Mother Goose last tie out but that race typifies her biggest problem and that is finding her way through traffic with her late run. The draw is perfect for her today so with a bit of luck she may find the post at the right time.

3  Most Charming    Mb Stables    Alvarado J

Stalked the lead and was game at the end to dead heat for second in the Mother Goose just a few inches in front of Blue Jeans last time out. That run was after a win in the FG Oaks where she again beat Blue Jeans, a brilliant second in the KY Oaks and a close fifth in the grade one Acorn. On the balance of form she looks the one to beat.

4  Exhilarating    Maxmillion Farm    Garcia Mar

Bought for peanuts from Smokey Stover like so many good horses were she went from running well in overnights to very nearly winning a grade three last time out. That race was the DEL Oaks and whilst it was just a four runner field she only went down by a neck and is clearly better than her previous form suggested. A nice work recently suggests she is still improving.

5  Diminuendo    Blushing Meadows   Pennington F

On form she is within a few feet of the best of these but she is yet to win a race this year in 6 attempts.  She is pretty consistent having run close up in the FG oaks, Gazelle and the KYO recently but she has looked as though she lacks that final burst when the race is in the final stages. Blushing Meadows has removed Lasix and has her works on the improve so i expect a big run from her from this draw that gives her some options.

6  Prompt                  Team 7 Illusions    Valdivia J Jr

Lightly raced with just the 5 starts she looks held on her form so far but her trainer doesnt tend to enter no hopers so there must be something to the filly we havent seen yet. Ignoring her last two starts on turf she wasnt too far back in the gazelle in only her third lifetime start so she is entitled to improve on that.

7  Lake Wendigo    Night Rider Stables   Carmouche K
She was bought from Barcelona Farms after some good runs at state bred level and has done very well for her new trainer in her three starts since. A game third beaten under a length in the Acorn gives her the beating of Most Charming and a great run in her first start on turf last time out in the BEL Oaks suggests her ability has no boundaries. If she can find a good position through the race she will be right there at the end.

8  Destination Ny    Maxmillion Farm    Colon L H

This filly rather typifies HRP and its class issues as she was beaten 6 times in maiden but managed two black type wins in a row without ever managing to win a maiden. Her last start saw her out finish Goosebumps in the Iowa Oaks and that form and her works suggest there is more to come from this filly. The draw makes it a little tough but i have a little whisper for her that wont go away.

9  Eponine                  D J C Racing Stables   Hernandez B J Jr

Good at overnight level she stepped up massively to run equal second in the Mother Goose putting her right alongside most pf the principals in this race.A real consistent type she is under the radar in this race and may be the surprise package if she can handle the wide draw.

10  Manifest    Smokey Stover    Ortiz J L

The trainer has one at both ends of the draw and sadly this is probably his better winning chance and its stuck out in the car park. Bought from Mb Stables at the start of the year she was very good in the Honey Bee but got fired out from the wide draw in the Ashland and lost all chance to the race engine, ending up a well beaten fifth in the mud. Another poor draw in the KYO saw her taken back and this time she finished well for seventh, but again on an unfavoured off track. She finally caught a break last time out and ran like we know she can finishing a really strong second in the Acorn and if she can beat the wide draw today i think she may be the answer in a tricky race.

SUMMARY
If Manifest was anywhere other than the widest draw i would be selecting her for the win…..and she still could win but that ten gate makes me have to look at other options. Destination Ny could well be a freak but i can’t be confident till she proves that whilst the likes of Lake Wendigo and Exhilarating are improving types that could well be good enough if continuing in that vein. Blue Jean and Most Charming will be right in the race too in what could be a blanket finish with a bit of luck playing a big part.



Categories: Grade I, Races, STAKES ARTICLES

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