Will Brittle Cause Yet Another Change of Heart?

 9/14 Iroquois – Grade III [BC]
CD Race #1 1 1/16m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $200.000 For Two Year Olds.

1 Beach Native Nj Vets Carmouche K

The trip is key to juveniles in these races and this one has the big advantage of having won over a mile in his last start. A half brother to Beach Dandy we know the stock are early developers who route well and whilst this one has a lot of improving to do to be among the favorites he must be rated some sort of chance.

2 Yankee Doodle Dandy John Henry Saenz D

The magic mile work for these top juvenile races is between 1.37 and 137 and 2 and this one fits the bill nicely. Bought for $200.000 less than a month ago his new trainer will have to have found the key to his running style especially as he stretches out for the first time today. His works put him near the front and his form is OK but couple those facts with the perfect draw, a top stable and a jockey riding at 40% ! and he must be respected.


3 City Sniper John Henry Leparoux J R

From the same stable as Yankee Doodle Dandy its very interesting how the works and performances compare in these juveniles. Its something i noticed last year that works mean less at this age than the hidden class gene and a will to win and that is very clear with this unbeaten gelding. His smooth win in the Bashford Manor last time was very impressive but when you compare his works with his stable companion he is nearly a second slower. After this race we will certainly know more as will the trainer.

4 Mystic Hero D J C Racing Stables Sanchez M J

Still a maiden but he has had 4 starts and has cashed a cheque every time. He certainly looked last time like this trip would suit and his works are pretty decent so with a good draw he is definitely more than just a hopeful entry.

5 Becket Mb Stables Talamo J

Another maiden this one was bought at auction recently and immediately improved a half second in his mile works. Whilst the new owner and that work may fuel conspiracy theories this is much more than just a two race maiden with one decent work. In his last start he ran on well to be beaten just a head, so he is a winner but for a few inches and that work shows him improving all the time. A winning chance despite his status.

6 Stark D J C Racing Stables Arroyo N Jr

A second entry from the stable and for me the best hope. He too is working the magic number but i really liked the way he ran from a nasty gate in the Best pal Stakes last time and i rather think there is more to come from him. He is my pick for a value bet.

7 Hang Around Mb Stables Gaffalione T

This one owns a 1.37 flat work time but with just one win from four, on my earlier theory it may not be as clear cut as just picking the best work. Having said that the only bad race he ever run was on a wet track and he ran pretty well to be beaten less than a length in the Funny Cide last time so with the fact that his trainer wins stakes for fun you have to put him high on your list.

8 Dream Engine Chili King Stables Rosario J

Flew home from a rotten position to be third in the Sanford but failed to step up on that in the Best Pal last time, again getting to the back but this time finding nowhere to go and ending up tenth. Chili King paid a lot of money for this son of Always Dreaming so they will be hoping for a better effort over this trip and i must admit i fully expect them to get it.


9 County Medical Crocker Ggs Hernandez R

two wins from three with one of those being in the Victoria Stakes this one clearly has ability. His works times suggest he is primed and ready an i guess the biggest question mark will be the trip as he has never been beyond five and a half furlongs on the track. The draw may be tough if he is the only one to go forward but if he can settle just off the pace he may be a real up and comer for the stable.

10 Personal Injury Estero Farms Contreras L

One run one win you cant get better than that but on trackwork it is tough to see him getting into this race from the ten draw.


11 Brittle Aer Stables Bridgmohan S X

Amazingly the trainers name still appears next to this one because just a few weeks ago they were off to pastures greener. It looks like this gelding was good enough to keep them around and certainly when you consider the 1.36 and 4 mile work you have to agree with the reasoning despite their determination to leave. So the Best pal winner over six furlongs and that sizzling work i would have to give him a huge chance but the gate may prove tricky. The biggest question mark will be where he ends up in running but he looks good enough to overcome many adversities so dont be surprised to see him winning.

12 Charmday Gdp Inc Lanerie C J

This one has won over a mile so the trip will be fine and he has coped with a wide gate too so that will help but this is a very different race to those he has been running in and he may find he has too much ground to make up at the end. A chance if things go well but you cant be overconfident.

SUMMARY

Well Brittle will be the key to this race, if he finds a spot to run in he looks good enough to win but that 11 gate will be hard work and that means we have to look at others should things not go his way. I think Dream Engine will run much better and may be a choice at odds and i rather like Stark, Yankee Doodle Dandy and City Sniper too.



Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES

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