The Noble Damsel Handicap – Grade III
BEL Race #6 1m Turf Graded Stake
Purse $200.000 For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward.
1 Grace Is Gone Midnight Racing McCarthy T
Bought at auction for just $27.000 she had placed in a couple of statebred stakes races on the dirt but has been campaigned on turf by her new owner and they persist today. Third in two allowances under the new owner her last run wasnt too bad and with a 1.34 and 2 mile work time after that effort looks to be an improver. She gets bottom weight and a decent draw and could be the surprise package.
2 Scam Nakamura Stables Garcia Alan
A progressive three year old she is on the wrong side of the handicap here because even though she gets bottom weight she is worse off than she would be in a weight for age race. A nice winner last time in a high level allowance she gets the ideal draw and with a trainer that knows how to win these sorts of races you would expect a big effort despite the unfavorable weights.
3 Backwaters Maxmillion Farm Saez L
The turf king won the La Prevoyante Handicap over 12 furlongs with this one on an off track. The trainer seems to have some secret with wet turf tracks and often pulls them out of the bag so watch out for this one of the rains come. Failing the wet she is a good enough sort in the dry and has won over six and a half and twelve furlongs so is clearly both fast and strong. I would expect a big effort.
4 Machined Team 7 Illusions Van Dyke D
It wouldnt be a stakes race without a Cherokee Sunset running and this daughter of the great sire comes here with a good chance of adding another scalp to the sires trophy cabinet. Beaten a nose in the Ballston Handicap last time from a poor draw that was probably a stronger race than this so is a good pointer to her chances here. Her previous career had all been over sprints but HRP seems to have less emphasis on trip than real life and she looks as good if not better at a route trip.
5 Agenda Mb Stables Lezcano J
The first of the Mb Stables runners this runner has a big advantage over Machined as for some reason she gave that filly weight in the Ballston Handicap and was inches behind but today races off levels. The trainer will be sending the handicapper a box of chocolates for sure and this filly looks to be the one most likely to win on paper. She won The Very One back in March and has contested at grade one level since so with strong works and a great handicap mark she looks the one to beat.
6 Illustrious Cat Chili King Stables Campbell J
the weights are really against this three year old who comes here with top weight in an all aged handicap. Whilst she is a very good filly she will have to be pretty special to overcome the impost today which in HRP terms comes out at around three or four lengths better than the best older horse in this race. On her impressive win in the grade two Nassau and an excellent fourth in the grade one DMR Oaks you would have to say she certainly has the class edge and her works are very strong but its a very big ask for her.
7 A Fine Seamstress Dandy Dan Stables Davis D
She was in progressive form at the end of last year and started off the season by carrying that on to success in the grade three Megahertz. Since then her form has flattened out a bit and i wonder whether she is quite up to this level. A chance for sure but a tricky draw will make it tough for her.
8 Low Key Desires Aer Stables Lopez P
Another three year old going against the grain in this handicap she too is worse off at the weights. On her second in the Nassau to Illustrious Cat she would have a chance with a two pound pull in the weights and i liked her win in the Riskaverse last time which was her first run for a few when conditions were in her favor. She has a bit to find but is capable of being in at the end.
9 Change Perception Mb Stables Beschizza A
This five year old has been struggling a little but with a wide gate she may be able to use the speed push to put her on the lead and she looked pretty good in the Possibly perfect Stakes when a similar situation arose. I am not sure she is as good as her stable mate.
The best horses in this race are probably a couple of three year olds but with the handicap against them i am favoring the likes of Machined and Agenda with Backwaters a danger if the rains come .