Can the Cat Beat the Weight in The Ticonderoga?

The Ticonderoga
AQU Race #5 1 1/16m InTurf Stake
Purse $200.000 For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward Foaled In NY.

1 Illustrious Cat Chili King Stables Lezcano J

This is a very good filly but the way the weights are she shouldnt be able to win this. A very good winner of the Nassau and then good in the BEL Oaks before a close fourth in the DMR Oaks is wining form for this but the way the penalties work and the way weight influences races at HRP she shouldnt be 6Lbs better than the next best. Its a brave entry though and the draw gives her every chance.

2 Risque One D J C Racing Stables Lanerie C J

After running third in the BC Juvenile Sprint last year after a nose second in the Matron this one looked to be one of the two year olds that would make her mark this year. Since then however she has been disappointing although there is some form there and at her best from this draw she would be a threat.

3 The Famous Sister Patterson Stables Davila J R Jr

Looks an improving sort but hasnt raced in this grade yet and the class gene has to be taken on trust. Her works are good enough on turf but she hasnt won on this surface so there are a lot of if’s about her chances.

4 Sound Logic Sccj Stables Landeros C

Only a winner of two but she has raced against some good ones and whilst she clearly has ability i just wonder whether she is the sort that finds a couple too good at any level. Her run last time in the Pebbles was very good finishing well enough for third and that run may be the best of her chance for this race. That was her first turf route and it was a good effort so it stands to reason this may turn out to be her best conditions.


5 Nebulae Z Team 7 Illusions Gallardo A A

The older horses are just beginning to get to the three year olds as the weight allowance lessens and this one has some good efforts to her name and will have no fears about the mile and sixteenth. Second in the Sheepshead Bay back in May she comes from a stable that is a master in these types of events.

6 Sequana John Henry Saenz D

Gets the outside draw but is a consistent sort and if luck goes her way she could still be a factor. Bought for $125.000 recently she has only won once this year but is working well enough on this surface to be a fair chance.

SUMMARY

Well if it wasnt for the penalties i would have no trouble in confidently selecting Illustrious Cat to win this. She still could win but i just find weight is a much bigger factor at HRP than real life and it may just stop her. Of the rest they are pretty evenly matched but The Famous Sister and Sequana look good on work times and Nebulae Z would be a danger.



Categories: NG Stakes, STAKES ARTICLES

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