LA Futurity – Grade II [KYD]
LA Race #2 1 1/16m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $200.000 For Two Year Olds.
1 Aggravated Sky Estero Farms Lezcano J
In a big field like this there will be plenty of hard luck stories but this shouldnt be one of them as he seems to be a natural stalker and the one stall is a good place to do that from. The trip will be another issue for some but again not for this one as he worked a 1.36 and 2 dirt mile which is as fast as some of the BC Classic winners works. That may sound silly to most who deal with real life racing but at HRP the development pattern is very different and in this case the work merely suggests he is up to this grade at this time. If things work out for him he will be toughing it out at the end.
2 Dragster D J C Racing Stables Wilson E J
The winner of the grade one Hopeful he ran very well in the BC Juvenile from a terrible draw running on well to be beaten just 3 lengths. Running from the most sought after draw he must rate a very big chance in this but i am always wary of BC form in these races as the end of a tough season can often see these juveniles run a bit flat. If he has come through the BC OK then he will be a big chance.
3 Mexican Swagger Aer Stables Talamo J
The derisive trainer seems to be blessed with some great two year olds this year and this is one of them who gets a great draw to extend his unbeaten record to five. All of his wins have been on the statebred circuit but considering two of those stakes wins have been whilst carrying a penalty we shouldn’t belittle the class he was in as it takes a good horse to defy a penalty. Again he hasnt raced over this sort of trip yet but a 1.36 and 2 dirt work and a 1.35 and 1 turf work for the mile suggests it will not pose a problem.
4 Angelsinheaven Angelos Stable Eramia R E
Beaten just a neck by Dragster when third in the Hopeful he was running from the car park that day and the wide gate speed push put him in the lead so that run was worth more than it looked. His on speed style will put him in a good position from this draw but a faster pace may kill his chances. Works and form say big chance but this is a deep field.
5 Royal Assembly Nakamura Stables Rosario J
This trainer has a knack of producing great horses from mediocre form and this winner of a maiden claimer last time out will probably run better than expected. The works are good and he had the look of an improved horse with that last win, if he can make the jump in class (which isnt very big at HRP) then he comes into considerations.
6 Clockwork Winning Link Stables Pennington F
Clockwork Chai has been disappointing in the shed but this isnt a bad sort although i feel he may find this field too tough.
7 Immoral Mb Stables Saez G
Proved strong enough to win his maiden over this trip and went on to get a gritty win in the Golden Sate Juvenile last time. He had Clockwork behind that day and should confirm that form but he will need some of the top trainers guile to beat the best of these.
8 Aussie Steel Arindel Prat F
This one has had a busy year since being claimed for just $5 from a maiden claimer. Since then he has won an ungraded stakes and last time took the Hope Stakes by a nose from a terrible draw. This is one of those that seems to defy logic when it comes to a fair and random draw as he has had to cope with wide draws in his last 5 runs and gets another difficult gate today. He was hug in the Hope Stakes last time and clearly has a very good motor but there still may be a doubt about his ability to beat the very best.
9 Raid Of The Mist Allinthegate Garcia Alan
Less than a length behind Aussie Steel in the Graduation Stakes he has been brought along far slower and was very brave in taking the Grey Stakes by a nose last time on a wet track. I feel his best chance from this draw will again be if the rains come but he is good enough to deserve a shot at a race like this.
10 Orion Nebula John Henry Lanerie C J
Well if this was a real life race this one would be a fairly warm favorite based on his win in the SAR Special and his nose second in the BC Juvenile. Funnily enough his only real failure in his 5 starts was the one time he got a decent draw so this wide gate may not be the disadvantage to him. You cant ignore that last run but as i have said before the BC can take a lot out of a juvenile and that may be the chink in his armor.
12 Notorious Temper Night Rider Stables Fuentes Ru
Won a couple of good state breds including the FL Sire Stakes last time when he managed to overcome a bad draw. He was a bit disappointing in the Grey Stakes last time but either the race engine or the trainer made the mistake of putting him on the speed that day so if he can get back a bit today he may return to somewhere near his best.
13 Senor Ugly Mo Mentum Farm Pereira T J
Gets in thanks to a scratch and this may be too tough for him from the car park draw. A nice enough sort at overnight level and a good winner over this trip he is far from a no hoper but he does face a very big uphill battle.
On form you would say Orion Nebula but i am always wary of BC form and would be willing to look at Mexican Swagger of Aggravated Sky to tip him over.