Can On The Dot Overcome Post Position Twelve?

This bay gelding out of No Doubt About It has caught the interests of the betting public since last November where he has captured the post time favorite in his last three tries. Last two have left him just fractions short at a mile, so the added sixteenth should comes as a welcomed surprise.

  • Mine That Bird Derby- Purse $100.000
  • Sunland Park- For Three Year olds
  • One Mile and one sixteenth in distance- Main track
  • February 23rd, 2020

When it comes to this event, trainer Mb Stables knows how to walk away with the riches. After all he is a two time winner of this affair in seasons 2014 and 2017, and now he will be looking for win number three. His hopes have been placed with On The Dot, a two time winner in his career of five starts, and a total record of ( 2-2-1 ). His opener of this season saw a third place finish a month ago over this very track surface in the Allison Derby, missing by three quarters of a length in a closing effort. Jockey Chirinos takes over with the reigns for this event, and that rider has been firing at a 33% clip this season, so the talent will be in the irons. The main question is can he overcome this extreme post position, one he will face for the first time. Hopefully he doesn’t get sent quickly to the front as I think that kind of style will not play out well for him , but if he can drop down in the opening fractions to a midpack spot off the opening turn, he should put in a run down the lane that will more then likely work to his advantage.

So who else has potential for this event? I will generally turn to the SRF ratings at this point and see which runners have been on the upswing of late. With that in mind, we would have to consider runners like A Boy And His Dog ( Choppy Inc. ), Zafonic Way ( The Freakshow ), Night Of Day ( Alydar Stables ) and Stylin N Profilin ( Rampage Stables ).

From this grouping I tend to lean more towards Night Of Day as that bay did manage to finish a quarter of a length ahead of the Mb Stables runner in the Allison, where both of them made a late charge to the line. Does have a more suitable post position for this affair, but he has proven he can run from anywhere on the track. Zafonic Way has opened the season with a victory , and only missed by a length in last seasons $200 CA Cup Derby. Should be in charge of the lead heading into the stretch, just needs to hold off those late comers. As for A Boy And His Dog and Stylin N Profilin, these two thoroughbreds each have different running styles. While Stylin will try to keep pace late with the runners from the Allison, A Boy And His Dog should break cleanly and quickly from the gate, and if left unchallenged in the early fractions, will dictate a pace that is suitable for him to gain a victory.

Other members of the field include Midnight Lightning ( South Beach Racing )P1, Green Leaves ( Greeko Holdem ) P3, Hollywood Hero ( Nakamura Stables) P6, Gone Quiet ( Ace Racing Stables ) P7, Yankee Doodle Dandy ( John Henry )P8, Black Smoke ( Oquinn Farm ) P10, and Red Dawning ( Serenity Stables ) P11.

Of this group and if he can get back to a better running style late in the race, Yankee Doodle Dandy has probably the most experience of this group when it comes to competing against Graded company runners. Just a one time winner in nine career starts, hopefully this event will be the building blocks for the future. Trainer John Henry can pull a rabbit out of his hat from time to time. I also think with the right instructions that an underdog in this event could be Black Smoke. He may get the mutual backing along with a couple of others here, and he closed out last season with back to back victories, so if he goes for a bit of a price, may just be worth a few dollars.

Highlight: Serenity Stables…When we think of founding fathers of this Virtual racing game, names like Australia Wide and Jerry Garcia Racing along with Spinetingling and Team 7 Illusions coming to mind, another trainer who made the early years of the game fun was Serenity. While it has been a few seasons since we had seen talents like Timepiece win the 2006 BC Juvenile race, then go on to capturing the 07 Belmont Stakes the following season, Serenity continues to keep his presence felt in the game. Others like Halfbaked ( 06 BC Distaff Champion ) and Dani Dauntless ( 06 Kentucky Derby Champion ) have their names mentioned quite often around the stables by members who still reminisce about the glory days of the stable, and still enjoy the day to day works of this trainer. While the stalls have quieted some recently, the drive and love for the game has not. Just last weekend I saw a glimmer of hope of an up and comer by the name of Anoush Command come charging late in the Gr. II Risen Star Stakes to miss by a neck. He went runner-up in two previous events, the Gr. II Remsen Stakes and the Gr. III Lecomte Stakes, all with Derby implications and earning him 28 KYD Points. I truly thought this was going to be the thoroughbred that was going to bring back the fame and glory to the Serenity Stables once again, but the horse was sold recently to the Fractious Group. While many have been strongly talking about five time winners Brittle ( Aer Stables ) and Spirited Stride ( Mb Stables ), a thoroughbred of this caliber and with a brilliant late kick that is amazing to watch, it would have been nice to see Serenity make that glorious walk to the winners enclosure once again for a Triple Crown title. Mark my words, this black colt is the real deal.

Duffer



Categories: NG Stakes, STAKES ARTICLES

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