SUN Oaks [KYO]
SUN Race #9 1 1/16m Dirt Stake
Purse $200.000 For Fillies Three Years Old.
1 Chichier Paradise Stable Bridgmohan S X
The form for these types of races can be very hard to read and although this one looks stretched on her form and most works, she could surprise in her first start over distance. She’s in with a puncher’s chance but wont be one of the favorites despite a decent draw.
2 In The Slot Mb Stables Davis D
She had some good form in lower grade but i wasnt too impressed with her third in the Island Stakes on this course last time out. A bad draw that day and a brilliant draw today however can be a big difference at HRP and i suspect she will run a lot better.
3 Up Ended Team 7 Illusions Beschizza A
Another without form at this level she finished strongly in a claimer last time out suggesting she has ability but thats a long way from this grade. Her works not surprisingly only tell us the same old story that she could win as they are just about as good as anything else so you have to rely on the fact that she comes from a top stable with a good draw.
4 Odd Trek D J C Racing Stables Jaramillo E
I rather like this 3 race winner but like so many of the others she is untested at this level. In a race that looks no better than an allowance at TUP though she is the best drawn of those that have the works and form to win.
5 Pocono Fashion Nakamura Stables Cedillo A
This one has never been out of the first three, has two good wins with one being over this trip and most importantly she has the Nak factor. I really liked her seasonal debut run and she may prove to be the value bet in a difficult form race to read.
6 Real Speed Aer Stables Chirinos R
She has taken on top company but her two efforts in the Miss Grillo and the BC Juvenile were not exactly sparkling so you have to go back to her win in the Johnson to find black type form of merit although that was on the turf so its still hard to read. Her works are OK and to be honest this isnt much of a race so you have to give her a chance.
7 Wiperblade Jive Inc. Espinoza V
This horse improved a second in her works after she was bought from Aer Stables so clearly the new stable did something right even if it was just removing the Lasix from her feed bowl. She has never tackled this trip but there was a lot to like about her five length optional claimer win at the end of last year.
8 Zero Twist John Henry Bejarano R
This filly has shown some good form since being soundly beaten on her debut back in October. Two nice wins over sprint trips were followed by her last start in the Suncoast where she finished like a train from a similar draw to be beaten just a length into fourth. She will need some luck from the draw but of she gets it she may just be the winner.
9 Querencia Smokey Stover Velazquez J
A consistent filly who has never been outside the top three her seasonal debut was pretty good in Allowance company suggesting she will relish this trip. The wide draw is a worry but she may be the filly with a big upside.
10 Sheza Star Aml Racing Hernandez
Every time i see an Aml runner these days i think how the stable once told me that they always draw wide in these big races. After two good wins from decent draws she gets her second bad draw in a row today and i fear we may see the same result.
11 Time Lady Nakamura Stables Gryder A T
The Nak factor will be strong in this one as she is one of the few with worthwhile black type form and as a plus it came this year in the CAC Oaks. The minus is that it was on the turf but she showed enough when winning her maiden on dirt to suggest she can run on both. The trip from the draw will be key but if the race engine doesnt stop her then she is a serious contender.
12 Maui Underworld Lazy Lizard Contreras L
A deep closing type she may get too far back from this draw as happened when she ran in the Golden Rod and the Suncoast in her last two starts. She gets an in form jockey but so much of her chance will be left down to what the race engine does with her.
This is little more than a packed allowance field so its shouldnt take much winning. Having said that the best fillies are drawn wide so i expect it to be quite a mess early on and many may lose their chances in the run to the first bend. If all goes well i expect Zero twist, Querencia and Time Lady to make up the first three but the chances of three wide draws getting a decent trip are slim so that brings in the likes of Pocono Fashion and Odd Trek who will enjoy a much easier trip.