The SUN Derby Looks a Very Winnable Race

SUN Derby – Grade III [KYD]
SUN Race #10 1 1/8m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $700.000 For Three Year Olds.

My apologies for this being a little late but in my rush to buy toilet paper i managed to misread my assignments (again) d’oh. So thanks to a nudge from Overpeer i am now trying to get this out as quickly as poss whilst wiping my keyboard down and telling the kids to shut up and get on with their school work!

1 Remson Aer Stables Bridgmohan S X

It seems that every three year old this stable touches at the moment turns to gold so why wouldnt we think this rather normal looking son of Zero Return wouldnt suddenly turn in a lightning 1:36 1/5 mile work despite a couple of failures already to get into the KYD picture. Looking at his form he had a good maiden win at the end of last year and his two efforts this year have been pretty good without reaching the heights of some of his stable companions but with a good run from this draw he may just be the sort to put in today.

2 Le Pavoniere Shermfirm Stables Gaffalione T

This would be a great time for this stable to win their first race from only four tries at HRP. Bought from Smokey Stover after winning the LA Legacy last year he has been off the track for a while and that is probably my biggest concern. His works say he may need this race to fully sharpen him up but he couldnt have got a better draw and should give the new trainer a thrill.

3 Plenty Supercharged Fractious Van Dyke D

Picked up a statebred maiden at the end of last year and has impressed in allowance company this season when put over a longer trip. He was solid last time out and has a great draw if he gets a loose stalk off an average pace. Not proven at this level and his works look a tick off this grade but a win wouldnt be that surprising.

4 Cognac Bay Gdp Inc Davis D

The winner of a maiden claimer at two he has looked a lot better than that since taking a decent allowance at AQU last time in a solid winning time. Clearly following an upward curve he has the right jockey and the right draw to get right into this.

5 One Zero Chili King Stables Leparoux J

He was progressing very well and started the year off with a promising third in the Smarty Jones first up but his progress came off the rails last time with a very poor effort in the Southwest. There doesnt seem to be much of an explanation for that run so you have to be a little nervous today but this is an easier field than that and i expect a much better effort.

6 Lil Pink Panther Hawaiian Shirt Guy Contreras L

A maiden after four starts as a two year old he has improved leaps and bounds this year but has to improve again to be a contender here. He dead heated in the Hedeman Mile last time out but that race was run at a very false pace and he was in the perfect spot so it has to be taken with a pinch of salt. It would be great to see the veteran sire Pink Panther get a Derby entry but i cant get too confident about his chances on paper.

7 Hang Around Mb Stables Bejarano R
This fairly busy son of Wreaking Havoc has had a couple of goes at this sort of level but as yet hasnt found the class gene required to make the step from allowance to stakes level. He didnt run too badly from a wide draw in the El Camino last time but he was still a way behind at the line and didnt run up to his nice allowance win in the race before. If anyone can turn his form around it Mb Stables so you cant write him off but he certainly doesnt represent the usual stable runner who would be among the favorites.

8 Serpent King Rampage Stable Rosario J

With just four starts there is still a lot to learn about this one but with two good wins and a useful third in stakes company last time he certainly seems to have some ability. His works are in the ball park so if he can find a decent trip from this awkward draw he could be in it at the end.

9 Dragster D J C Racing Stables Beschizza A

Just like the SUN Oaks much of the form seems to be drawn wide in this race which may make it a bit of a weird result. This grade one winner as a two year old certainly has a lot of good form to his name and on his effort in the Southwest must be among the best in the field based on form alone. Fourth from this sort of draw in that race he was running on nicely at the end and if he can get a decent run from here i would expect him to get much closer.

10 Temple Of Gloom Fractious Lopez P

His works are strong but after his efforts in the Withers and the Fountain Of Youth it is hard to give him a chance from this tough draw. Prior to those he won the Mucho Macho Man pretty nicely so if the trainer and jockey can pick a path from this draw he could come back to his best.


11 Rosicrucians Team 7 Illusions Saez G

Two starts one win and a son of Cherokee Sunset, in some circles that would be enough to see hi winning this but he will have to be very good from this draw. He was impressive in winning his maiden but it wasnt an overly quick race and whilst i think he may end up good enough to win a race like this i think this may come too soon for him.

12 Real One Fractious Hernandez R

A game maiden win last time out in his first run over ground certainly put him in this race with a chance but it would be a big ask at this time in his career to cope with this draw against this level. His works are very strong but he will need some favors from the race engine.

14 Becket John Henry Velazquez J

Bought for just ten dollars from Mb Stables he ran pretty well in the Risen Star to be beaten just two lengths and that race was stronger than this one so he may run better today. His works are good and if the race engine spits him to the front like it did in the Coronation Futurity when drawn wide he may have his best hop of dictating the pace and getting in the action.

15 Into Mischief Nakamura Stables Gryder A T

The Nak Factor would have to be turbo charged here to get this one race winner home from the car park draw. A good win in maiden company last year prompted Nakamura to buy him for forty dollars but he will be a little ring rusty as he hasnt run for 5 months and will have to rely on a minor miracle to win. Having said that miracles do happen at HRP !!

SUMMARY

It would have to be Dragster on form but if there was a dark horse in the field it would have to be Remsen who only has to run up to his work times to win this.



Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES

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