The KYD, the race everyone wants to win really, is a law unto itself when it comes to racing at HRP. With 20 runners most of whom have had a stressful and busy time just to get into the race it can be a race which is very hard to read but with 16 KYD’s to draw some evidence from lets have a see and try and work out some trends.
We have an even split between geldings and colts but its worth noting that the last 4 winners have been geldings. It may be entirely by chance or it may be the need to get a horse to its peak early in its career and gelding can certainly help a horse peak. Even so this is a tentative and inconclusive stat so its best just overlooked.
Probably the one big thing that everyone would agree on at the moment is that the draw can win or lose a race at HRP these days. Interestingly the last 2 years have seen very wide draws win which doesn’t seem to follow the HRP trend but that may be just the sort of race this is. With winners coming from the one box and the twenty box it seems there are no bad draws in this race despite the fact those drawn 2 – 6 will be happier than those drawn 19 and 20. The average winning draw for the race is ten with the only draws winning more than once being 6,7,8 and 20.
Size is another that feels like it should matter but doesn’t, we have had winners from 15.2 to 16.3, from 1181 Lbs to 1294 so size as they say really doesn’t matter.
With some exceptions it seems work times have to be in the 1.37 or less range and i may be so bold to say that as the horses these days seem to be generally better and more equal, the 1.38 work that Commanding put in prior to the Derby in 2013 probably wont be repeated, i would say a sub 1.37 work would be the mark.
Finally the road to the KYD. 4 of the last 5 winners have come from one of the regional Derby’s qualifying for the race and that may be significant although who can forget a horse like Willow Grove who had lost his last 6 races prior to the Derby and could only manage a seventh and a fifth before the big day.
Rain is always a leveler and bearing in mind our last 3 KYD’s have been run in the wet an ability to go on any going is always an advantage.
So in summary…..well a glance at the history of the race tells us anything could win but it also tells us that a horse in form can also win from any draw and on any going. If your horse is drawn 20 or 1 or anywhere in between do not fear, the hardest part about this race is getting there, once there really anything could win.
Year Last win last milework draw size weight G or H
2019 Sun DERBY 1.36 and 1 19 16.3hh 1294 G
2018 SA DERBY 1.36 and 4 20 15.2hh 1226 G
2017 FL DERBY 1.36 and 2 07 15.2hh 1181 G
2016 DMR Futurity 1.37 01 16hh 1214 G
2015 Sun DERBY 1.37 08 16.1hh 1216 H
2014 Davis Stakes 1.37 06 16.3hh 1255 H
2013 Rebel 1.38 and 1 13 H
2012 CA Breeders 1.36 and 2 18 G
2011 With Anticipation 1.37 and 3 14 H
2010 FL DERBY 1.36 and 2 05 H
2009 Bay Shore 1.39B 04 H
2008 Rebel 1.38H 02 H
2007 Lanes End 1.35 and 4# 20 H
2006 KY Jockey Club 1.42H 07 G
2005 Santa Catalina 1.37 and 2H 06 H
2004 SA DERBY 1.38 and 2H 08 G