The Apple Blossom Handicap Could Be Sweet for New Filly on the Block

The Apple Blossom Handicap – Grade I (P4)
OP Race #1 1 1/16m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $1,000.000 For Fillies And Mares Four Years Old And Upward.

1 Out And Bad Night Rider Stables Bridgmohan S X

On the face of it the handicap has not been kind to this one as in her last race she was beaten 8 lengths in the Beholder behind many of her rivals today and in most cases has to give them weight. However it is important to not that that race was run on an off track and we all know that an off track can give highly odd results here at HRP. So ignoring that run she has won half of her races including 3 stakes races, two grade three’s and a grade two including the RP Oaks over this trip. Although her last work was a bit on the slow side she had recorded a very nippy 1.10 and 1 work in January so she is clearly a filly with plenty of ability. The big question from this draw is the trip though. She seems to like to run close to the pace and from this draw and against the outside speed push she may be forced to go a bit fast early on and that could use up her meager reserves of stamina. A great chance but one with a few question marks.

2 Blue Caviar Waldo Lermyte J

Apart from a disappointing effort in the BC Distaff this filly is consistency itself proving herself on any going and from any draw. A flying finish in the KYO last year saw her beaten just a length and even though since then she has only won one race her efforts have included two seconds and a third and grade one level. The draw today is a great advantage and she is nicely weighted too. A solid win chance with very few worries about weather, trip or readiness.

3 High On Haggis Winning Link Stables Gaffalione T

Another who found herself victim of the race engines rather extreme wet weather races the only blot on her copybook came on an off track but last seasons Mother Goose winner has proved that on her day when things go her way she is able to compete at this level. Her head second in the Cotillion was out of the top drawer and although she has been largely disappointing since then a nice win in overnight company last time showed her to be well and ready. She draws well but will need her A game to get in the finish.

4 Harsh Mb Stables Bejarano R

I have heard mutterings that Mb Stables is out of form at the moment however i find it hard to believe when reviewing the stable runners this weekend. This mare isn’t getting any favors from the handicapper but she deserves her 120Lbs as she proved when winning the Azeri last time out. There is however a proviso to this filly winning this race and that would be the weather. Both times on an off track she has run extremely well be ing two from two and taking two stakes races in those conditions. Don’t get me wrong she is still a very good racer on a sound surface as she proved when running well in the Spinster last year but i do worry that for her to have a winning chance rather than just a good one the rain may have to dampen a few of her rivals ability.

5 Gingers A Ten Maxmillion Farm Davis D

Its the usual story here. A filly that has only won 2 from 15 and hasn’t managed a win in her last 7 races 4 of those being at overnight level, BUT, she could win this race. I say usual story for two reasons, one she works as fast as anything in the field and two she gets in with 117Lbs and a pound at HRP could stop Secretariat. So there we go for no other reason than works, weight and zero class system this filly could be a big winner on dirt for the Turf King.

6 On The Flop Team 7 Illusions Lezcano J

Another than seems to have a bias towards a wet track she probably ran a lifetime best when a very close fifth in the grade one Beholder last time and whilst she doesn’t have the depth of form of some of these she gets in light enough to be considered.

7 Golden Hour D J C Racing Stables Beschizza A

On the face of it this filly has a little bit to find on most fronts but knows where the winning post is and wouldn’t be a complete surprise if she got some of the purse. She has both speed and stamina and ran pretty well last time out.

8 Wolfslayer Maxmillion Farm Cedillo A

Another off bottom weight from the stable she has much better form than her stablemate and in fact it is better than horses that are above her in teh handicap which in itself seems strange. Those facts make her a decent chance and she showed her well being when a game third in the Distaff Handicap last time out. Better known as a sprinter she won the grade one La Brea over seven furlongs last year but with that being only a furlong and a bit shorter than today’s race she really does seemed to have snuck in the handicappers back door.

9 Camp Hollywood John Henry Velazquez J R

Bought for $300 from Estero Farms she disappointed in the wet in the first start for John Henry but i would expect a big return to form today off a very handy weight. Winner of the La Brea last year she also won the BC Juvenile Fillies as a two year old so clearly has plenty of class and ability. The question would be is she on the decline and i guess you could be excused for thinking that but take out that wet track run last time and she would have every chance.

10 Kalaeloa Smokey Stover Franco M

Top weight and a wide draw are very harsh but this filly who broke 1.36 in a work over a mile last time could be ready to re write the record books. Judging on how weight works at HRP she would have to be two or three lengths better than this field to win today so if she does i think we can safely call her a BC favorite for November. Having said that half her purse winnings have come from wet tracks so that may be a small worry if it stays dry but that work says to me that this filly SHOULD be a freak, whether she is or not we will find out today.

11 Pure Addiction TwinTowersRacing Centeno D E

Claimed for just 8 dollars 4 races ago i wonder whether this filly can give Twin Towers another get well soon message from HRP. She should have no chance with just average form from the wide draw but this bottom weight just sends shivers down my spine and she could well be the winner.

SUMMARY

The way Kalaeloa worked the other day even top weight and a wide draw shouldn’t be able to stop her but this being HRP you really do have to look closely at the rest. I rather like Pure Addiction if the speed is on early and she gets the race engine on her side but that’s a lot of iff’s so instead i am going for Blue Caviar who on handicap mark alone has the beating of Kalaeloa.



Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES

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