The License Fee is Anyone’s Race

4/26  License Fee
BEL Race #2 6f Turf Stake
Purse $125.000 (plus up to $18.75 for NY-breds) For Fillies And Mares Four Years Old And Upward.

1 Levi Sneaky Estero Farms Carmouche

This four year old gets a great gate today and looks the best chance on that and a few other things. Fourth in the BC Turf Sprint last year she doesn’t actually win too often but has raced in top company and is never far away. As long as she doesn’t get buried on the rail i can see her finishing over the top of them down the straight.

2 Xtra Hot John Henry Alvarado J

Burning up the gallops she was bought for $70 recently and gets a first start for her new stable. The winner of both her starts this year including the Captiva Island last time she gets the best draw and looks to have a big winning chance.

3 Gold Futures TwinTowersRacing Ortiz J L

Working as well as all the others which is pretty usual these days but her form doesn’t look as impressive on paper. A good winner of a couple at the end of last year she has struggled this year and gets a complete turnaround today going from dirt routing to turf sprinting. For whatever reason i have seen this work many a time at HRP so you can’t write her off but you have to take that work above her form to give her a chance.

4 Ewa Beach Smokey Stover Castellano J

A really consistent type she has won her last three but is being brought along very slowly by her trainer. Smokey Stover has been in great form this year which counts for a lot at HRP and this filly must be a winning chance on her recent impressive wins.

5 Flying Nun Maxmillion Farm Lezcano J

The turf king brings a very fast working filly to this race and she is certainly a well established stakes filly who has a great chance. A winner over nine furlongs of the grade three Pucker Up Stakes you wouldn’t normally think that was the mark of a top sprinter but at HRP trip seems less important and she switched to sprinting for the new stable with great success including a nice win in the Lightening City Stakes last time.


6 Forever Blue Mb Stables Davis D

You can never write off a runner from this stable especially one that has won ten races. She hasn’t been tested for a while now taking pay checks at overnight level but her last stakes start in the Caress saw her run a neck second so she is right in this.

7 Pink Kitten Threshold Cancel E

The draw should just about ruin the good chance she had because she is neither a leader or a trailer and they seem to be the only two choices the AI has from wide. Good enough at her best she will need luck from the draw.

SUMMARY

The usual race of the clones here with all the girls working about the same and with very similar form. For that reason alone i will pick Ewa Beach because she comes from a stable that is in form and then lets take a six horse dead heat for second.



Categories: NG Stakes, STAKES ARTICLES

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