The IND Derby Sets Up for an AER, Mb Showdown

The IND Derby – Grade III
IND Race #2 1 1/8m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $300.000 For Three Year Olds.

1 Tudor One Mb Stables Court J K

A glance at this ones form may look ridiculous but when you remember the debacle that was the KYD it all makes more sense. Ignoring the KYD he has some nice form finishing a close second in both the Affirmed and the LA Derby. He is working very fast but then everything from this stable seems to be able to do that and has a decent draw for his running style so i have a feeling that the Sheik of HRP may have another stakes winning chance here.

2 Telladifferentstory Nakamura Stables Gryder A T

Failed to make the TC chase but is capitalizing on that now winning the PRX Derby and the Winn in his last two after three wide gates threw him out of the KYD picture. He gets a great gate again today and just a glance at his form tells you how important that is. He may need to find a length but the Nak Factor is worth that so he must go in with a great chance.

3 Notorious Temper John Henry Centeno D E

He was a very impressive winner of the AR Derby from a wide gate and looked a real KYD prospect. Two poor efforts in both the KYD and BEL however caused his trainer to lose faith and send him to the sales yard. John Henry picked him up and this is a first chance for him to repay the investment. He is working well and has a decent draw so with all the luck you need in these tight races he will go well.

4 Graveyard Mb Stables Davis D

Beaten pretty easily by Notorious Temper in the AR Derby he went on to run two very solid races in the Preakness and Belmont. This trip may be just a little short for him but with a good draw, very sharp works (no surprises there) and a jockey that is having success this year he rates another very good winning chance for the Sheik of HRP.


5 Relate D J C Racing Stables Velazquez J R

Gets a shot at the big time and the trainer never pulls his punches with his horses although this one comes up against a very tough field. A game sort but this race may have come up a bit too strong.


7 Brittle Aer Stables Bridgmohan S X

The BC Juvenile winner was huge in the Belmont wining by a head from a terrible draw. Put that run with a 1.36 flat work and he should start favorite for this and could easily win. So rather than worrying about why he could win because that is obvious lets look at why he may get beat. Well there isn’t much going against him but the squeeze box may be problematic and i am not sure he is as effective on the wet but apart from that there is no good reason he wont win.

8 Lord Of Peace Fractious Desormeaux K J

Another nice sort who may find this field too tough especially as he is drawn out a bit. Some good efforts through the TC qualifying campaign saw a fourth in the TAM Derby so he certainly could be close but i just can’t see him winning.


10 Out Of Step Diablo Diablo Garcia Mar

A bit of a HRP special this one. He won three races on the free track burning up his conditions but returned to the pay side for a nice allowance win at WO and has worked 1.36 and 2 good enough to beat most of the older dirt routers with a weight allowance. This however see’s him pitted against the best of his own age so despite some rapid improvement he may find a couple too good.

11 Shadow Man Axeman Hernandez R M

It seems they have put those who need a bit of luck to win out in the cheap seats where there will be little or no chance of winning. It happens a lot at HRP those inside slots taken up and the ones that are just ‘having a go’ thrust to the outside. This is a nice enough sort but this is a tough field and its hard to make a strong case for him.

12 The Mist Rampage Stable Rosario J

Working well and has run some decent races but i feel this is the one that will be sacrificed by the race engine. Drawn 2 or 3 and you could say that his third in the Nashua as a two year old or his close third in the TX Derby last time along with great works give him a chance. Out here in the cheap seats and he will need the race engine on his side.

SUMMARY

Wow, this is a hot race with four or five stand outs. Brittle of course will be top of most peoples list but there aren’t many certainties at HRP and i feel if his odds get too short there may be some value to be had elsewhere. The Mb Stables pair get the perfect draws and are working pretty close to Brittle so they must be big dangers and you can never ignore the Nak factor with Telladifferentstory. There may be some value to be had in betting Notorious Temper but with the HRP odds maker as it is that will probably come up as favorite and Brittle will be 20/1 so we will just have to wait and see.



Categories: Grade III, Races, STAKES ARTICLES

Leave a Reply

%d bloggers like this: