2 FL THE NY DERBY
$150.000 3yo Foaled in NY 1 1/16m Dirt 120lbs +penalties
The road goes on forever but the Derbys never end… or something like that. And, we look at the field of THE NY DERBY, to be run at a mile and a sixteenth here at FL in up-state NY. Getting right after it, I’m taking Cairn Toul to get the job done here today. Back-to-back runner up finishes in the PIM Special (GIII) and the Pegasus makes me think he is sitting on a big run and a win. I’ll put Chaos Broke Out in the second spot, and if he can run back to that Sir Barton victory, he could be the one to beat in this one as well.
Here’s The Field –
Tired badly after chasing the pace in the Iselin (GIII) last out. He broke maiden prior to that, so that is still a bit of an acid test for this one. He’s been on the board in seven of ten starts, but may have lost his best friend. I’ll look at others today.
Nice win over this track last out taking down state-bred Alw horses, that for his second win. Obviously this is a step up in class and he failed in open stakes, running ninth in the Smarty Jones at OP. Still, this is a bit easier than that so maybe he gets part of this one.
Twelfth in the SA Derby (GI) so they moved him at the June Auction for $41.000. I’m a bit shocked he didn’t bring more than that, but the new connections must be happy and drop him in to a stakes off of a 60 day vacation. Can he run well fresh or does he need this to tighten up?
Nice win at BEL taking down N1X Alw horses in good fashion. That is his second win, breaking maiden for $40.000 claimer at AQU back in Mar. This is his first shot at stakes horses, but that Alw win certainly makes him a candidate for part of this one.
He really doesn’t run a bad race and is just a couple of lengths from a few more wins, running second in his last three starts, all Alw races. He won back to back race to close out his 2yo season and to kick-off his sophomore run, but again, this is his first look at black type horses.
Won the Roar at GP on a wet track, they they may be hoping for similar today. He’s struggled a bit against other stakes company, fourth last out in the Affirmed (GIII) and similar at AQU vs. state-bred black type horses, but I think he fits well here and could make his presence felt, especially if it’s wet.
Won the Sir Barton at PIM along with two other races in his last five starts, but the other two races were tough starts vs. graded foes. He could find this one a bit more to his liking and should be a major player when the turn for home. His connections come to win races.
Near misses in the PIM Special (GIII) and the Pegasus makes him a major player today. He was running well on the T Trail as well, running second in the Grey Stakes (GIII) and the Lewis Stakes (GIII). I think this could be his coming-out party… then again, it could be another near miss.
Broke maiden in Mar then had back to back up-the-track finishes in the ARK Derby (GI) and The Winn (GIII). He also changed hands between those starts and has to turn it around in a big way if he wants to give this bunch a run.
Categories: NG Stakes, STAKES ARTICLES