Who Can Tip Toe to a Win in a Very Open Ballerina?

The Ballerina – Grade I [BC]
SAR Race #8 7f Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $400.000 For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward.

With only two three year olds in an 11 runner field this race is skewed towards the older horses but whilst there are a couple that could beat these younger horses the draw as well as the weight is favoring the minority so it will be an interesting race. Here is how they line up:


1 Ms Pea Aer Stables Beschizza A

She was looking solid as a two year old and therefore has been set some tough races this year. On the whole she has performed very well against her age group most notably when a game second in the Summertime oaks. She has been racing over further than this seven furlongs and in most of her races was up on the pace and didn’t quicken at the end. If she can get a soft run from this gate she may be able to use the rail and looks a good ber for first four.

2 Christina G Mb Stables Franco M

If there is one person that knows the three’s don’t have to be world beaters to win these grade ones at this time of year it is Mb and he sends this filly who he claimed back in March here with a great chance from the ace draw. The winner of five out of six this year she was running in much lower grade for her previous owners but as many do when put in the hands of the magic man she improved hand over hoof and is now a graded stakes winner. That win came in the Victory Ride last time and she looks just the type that could add yet another trophy to Mb’s cabinet.

3 Wbf No Regrets TwinTowersRacing Tunon M

The first of the older horses and maybe the best of them. Already a grade one winner over this trip, that win came in the Humana Distaff and whilst that was a brave and game win it was against fours and up and in her great season so far she hasn’t have to race any three year olds yet. Her last start in the Bed O Roses Handicap doesn’t look too flash but when you consider she had a wide gate and clear top weight it is an understandable blip on an otherwise strong record.

4 Spicy Poke Estero Farms Davis D

She ended last year well but then most three year olds end the season well but it looked pretty promising early in her four year old season with two seconds at grade two level. Her last two starts however have been hugely disappointing and it will take all of Estero Farms experience to pull her back on track. Her works are up and down but i feel this trip may suit her and with a good draw she gets an opportunity to turn her fortunes around.

5 Kalaeloa Smokey Stover Van Dyke D

Beat the three year olds in the grade one Beholder on an off track in March but then followed that up with a last in the Apple Blossom Handicap next out. Those two efforts pretty much sum up just how hard it is to read form lines here at the moment but i feel the trip and the wide draw may have found her out that day and in two runs since she has looked right back to her best. The stable is in top form so she must have a chance but i feel Smokey Stover will have to buy some rain to give her her best hope.


6 Unprecedented South Beach Racing Centeno D

Fourth behind Wbf No Regrets in the Humana Distaff she showed how a few pounds can make a huge difference next up when taking the Bed O Roses handicap for a four length turnaround with the winner. She is a solid filly but i feel back to level weights she will find this level much tougher.

7 Class Status Fractious Bridgmohan S X

Recently bought for $550 after a fourth in the grade one Phipps she is proven over this trip so must go in with a chance. She had won two grade three handicaps prior to that so is a filly that has clearly trained on. The draw is tricky and she will probably push forward which may make it tough against a pretty goof field and the likelihood of some wide speed.

8 Tommy Frazier John Henry Gaffalione T

Her experience over this trip will be a big plus and she goes into the mix with a good chance. She just failed to take the grade one La Brea at the end of last year and whilst she has been in tough as a four year old so far she has managed to acquit herself well. After winning the Whimsical Stakes on an off track she ran better than her finishing position in the Great Lady M Stakes last time so is clearly in good form. The draw makes it tough as there is so very little between these fillies and mares but if she gets some favors from teh race engine she will be right there.

9 Out And Bad Night Rider Stables Velazquez J

Whilst a few of these have shown an aptitude for an off track this one will finish last of the rains come that is about the only thing i can be sure of. A head second in the grade one Humana Distaff and a great third in the Phipps on a fast track fall between two awful races in the Nerud and the Beholder on off tracks. With form closely matched to so many and working pretty much the same as anything else all she has to do is beat the race engine and keep her feet dry.

10 Truly Deeply Madly Jive Inc. Bejarano R

I have often felt that this ten race winner has never quite developed into the world beater i thought she may be. A winner up to grade three she was a one length second in the Vinery Madison but then disappointed in the Humana Distaff. I think her problems come in her running style as she likes to be on the pace and that position relies so much on the pace the race engine makes them go but i was interested to see a change of tactics last time out and if she is allowed to go back she may just be the older filly that id finishing best.

11 First Impression Mb Stables Court J K

This three time stakes winner has a raft of great efforts in grade ones including a second in the BC Fillies and Mares Sprint and thirds in the Humana Distaff, the La Brea and the Test. She has all the for to win this but a horrible gate to try and do it from and may find some competition for the early lead which may see her burn too early. If anyone can get her a perfect trip its Mb Stables but i rather think their three year old may have the edge over this one.


SUMMARY

This is a great race with most of the older horses criss crossing form so much that there isn’t much more than a length between them all. The weather may play its part but as usual the biggest player is the three year old weight allowance and the draw which brings the two inferior three year olds right into the race. There will be plenty of pace on here and that will play perfectly for the inside draws so i am going for Christina G to beat her far better stable mate and win. Of the others Truly Madly Deeply is due a big win and if she is allowed to play her new tactic i think she ay be a huge chance at rewarding odds.



Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES

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