Could The BC Derby Come Down to Draws and Jockeys?

The BC Derby – Grade III
HST Race #1 1 1/8m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $150.000 For Three Year Olds.

1 Sexy Back Night Rider Stables Reyes A A

This one has always promised a bit more than he has delivered and whilst he does have black type winning form he has yet to win over a route trip. So he has a 9% jockey which will help, he has the one draw which will help but he does have to prove himself capable over 9 furlongs which may be the key to his chances. Although 11th in the Travers last time he didn’t run badly from a bad draw and was making ground at the end to be beaten just five lengths. It wouldn’t be a shock if he won but i haven’t got him at the top of my list.

2 Set In Space Nakamura Stables Sarmiento

Took a while to break maidens finally winning one in April over ten furlongs after six goes. Proving once again there is so very little between a good maiden and a stakes race he then went to the WV Derby where he ran on nicely to place third. He has several things in his favor here, a 9% jockey. the much sought after two draw, proven ability over the trip, a certain Cherokee Sunset as his Dad and the Nak factor. All those things added up is good enough for me.

3 Out Of Step Diablo Diablo Walcott R

Won three at the free track before going on to a starter allowance win at WO and then last time out finished just three lengths behind Shadow Man and Brittle. Such is the tiny gap between horses that he draws a 9% jockey with just $23 in winnings a feat that will have his trainer smiling. The draw is great, the works aren’t bad so there is no reason he couldn’t get some sort of pay check at the end of this race.

4 Deeds Not Words Alydar Stables Perez Al

This one kept running well in good races without success so the trainer tried turf for his last two starts. Neither of those runs really worked out so he is back to dirt today and i think that is ultimately his best surface. Not beaten far in the Day Mile in May i am expecting a much better run today.

5 Kingdom Fall Eastern Equine Williams S

Well we have seen plenty of horses come out of poor claiming races to win stakes here at HRP but whilst this one may have been my dark horse for this he is handicapped with a 7% jockey so may find it too tough.

6 Unbridled Passion Mb Stables Gonzalez E

The Sheik of HRP doesn’t have too many horses like this and they are usually used to secure meet titles but after some strong works he gives this one the chance to get into his stakes winning group. He showed improved form to win an optional claimer last time over this trip and as is usually the case his works are among the strongest. He gets a 9% jockey so whilst he is drawn a little wide must still be a winning chance.

7 Sky Dust Nakamura Stables Asencio J

On his fourth in the grade one Secretariat flying from a mile behind from the wide draw he will carry the best recent form into this race. The bad news is he gets an 8% jockey and another wide draw so that isn’t as clear cut as it sounds. I think he may be a little better on turf too so i will have to pass this one over in favor of his stable companion.

8 Full Of Life Rampage Stable Hernandez

And finally we get the wide draw and a 7% jockey for a horse that i was pretty keen on winning this race. It will be uphill now though with those handicaps even though he has a couple of good efforts to his name.

SUMMARY

This could end up a race of jockeys and draw and if that is the case then i would have to go for Set In Space to get the win from Unbridled Passion.



Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES

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