Natalma Stakes – Grade I [BC]
WO Race #2 1m Turf Graded Stake
Purse $250.000 For Fillies Two Years Old.
1 Give Thanks Mb Stables Lezcano J
It is a weird anomaly that when a trainer has multiple entries in a race that they are so often drawn together. I have just been writing about two of Mb Stables runners being drawn in the outside two boxes in the Speakeasy and here he is with the two inside gates. As luck would have it this is the grade one so i am sure they will take this stroke of luck over the bad luck in the other race. This is pretty much a win and you’re in BC race so it will be very hotly contested but as usual a doubt there will be more than a length or two between the first four. This one was pretty good without being outstanding in her first three maiden efforts but she turned into a superstar on her fourth run taking an SAR Maiden by open air when stepped up to a route trip. A sub 1.36 mile work suggests she is continuing that improvement and she is a definate win chance from this good draw.
2 Painville Mb Stables Beschizza A
The second stable runner she has already won three in a row and last time out took the La Senorita Stakes over this trip. I am not sure she is as good as her stable companion but from the ideal gate and with Mb’s magic touch she must go into the hopper as a chance.
3 Sudden Sunset Axeman Hernandez R M
She has raced three of her four races on an off track so it is hard to judge her form. However a 1.10 and 2 work suggests she will be better on a firmer footing and with this great draw she is another that it is easy to find a winning case for.
4 Gaeilic Wonder Smokey Stover Tunon M
The trainer is having a great year in graded stakes and this filly could easily continue that run. A very easy winner of an SAR maiden she backed that up with an impressive win in the Bolton Landing over the same course and distance. Having never raced over further than five and a half furlongs the biggest question is the trip but after a 1.35 and 3 turf mile work things are looking good.
5 Stargazing Aer Stables Ryan S
The stable has been on fire in the past couple of seasons but they will need all their experience to get this one home. A nice winner on debut she had a long break before returning at DMR where she ran third over five furlongs. Her works suggest she is ready for this trip but a place may be her best hope against the quality in the field.
6 Party In The Brig Mo Mentum Farm Bisono J
You can never knock an unbeaten record and this filly is two from two including a last gasp win in the Young Memorial last time. There are two big question marks against her name in this, firstly she has never run on the turf and secondly she has never run beyond five and a half furlongs. A 1.35 and 4 turf mile work though seems to suggest neither of those will be a problem and she could easily take this.
7 Casting Couch Cutie Arindel Gutierrez Mario
One of the more experienced in the field it is interesting to note that she has two of the fastest works in the field but her form is a long way from most of these runners. An improved effort last time gives some hope but until she can match her racecourse performance to her works it would be a gamble to say she could win.
8 Red Riding Hood Mb Stables Velazquez J R
She was two from two before going to the grade two Sorrento Stakes but a terrible draw saw her fail there. She switches surfaces today which would be a concern in real life but not so much at HRP and being the third of three from the stable she will carry support especially if she is the one that is picked to run best.
9 Lucky Insist Rock Creek Hernandez B J Jr
This filly has run five good races on dirt but switches codes today to try and get a bit more luck. Drawn badly in four of her five starts she finally got a break in the Adirondack last time drawn in the one gate but couldn’t find her way to the front and ended up seventh beaten a length a story that so often is repeated these days. If she takes to the turf she could arrive late on the scene and be a real player.
10 Hgh As A Kite Jive Inc. Court J K
Another unbeaten filly she followed up a good debut win with a strong win on the turf next up. Her works are in the ball park but her lack of experience over this trip and the wide draw will make it very tough to make it three in a row.
11 Local Flirt D J C Racing Stables Bejarano R
Didn’t go through the wet track last time but won nicely on debut but remains a bit of an unknown quantity. The works are Ok but the draw will make it tough but in a race where literally anything could win and if you raced ten times there would probably be ten different winners you cannot write her off.
12 Down In The Gulley Luz International McCarthy T
Another that has been busy in stakes races and a good winner last time in the AP Washington Lassie over this trip. That run was an improvement on her previous effort so it is worth noting that she is heading in the right direction but she will need all favors from the race engine to win this race from the car park draw.
For me Gaelic Wonder looks the winner in this race and may head a field that will be bunched in behind her. It looks likely that an Mb Stables runner will chase her home but i also like Party In The Bag. If you are looking for some better odds then Casting Couch Cutie may look attractive.