Will Keno Queen’s number come up in The Pocahontas

Pocahontas – Grade III [BC]
CD Race #6 1m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $200.000 For Fillies Two Years Old.

The BC beckons for at least one of these runners but in a year when the juvenile scene is packed with talent it is very hard to settle on which one it will be. Here is how they line up in this major BC pointer.

1      Kind Lassie        Hawaiian Shirt Guy        Gonzalez Ru

She has probably already done enough to get into the BC but looks to solidify and confirm her presence here. Second in the My Dear and The Muskoka the only real question here is whether she will stay the mile. An on pace type she can use this draw to her advantage but must also save enough for the end in what will be a race that is probably pretty competitive up front early on. A 1.10 and 4 work for the six furlongs puts her in the ball park.

2    Keno Queen           Mb Stables        Cedillo A

Won the Astoria from a wide draw but then got stuck behind a wall in the Schuylerville from a similar gate. Drawn better in the Adirondack last time she still failed to go the early pace but ran on well to be fifth just a length off the winner. This mile looks to be right up her alley and of course Mb Stables usually wins these juvenile races so put that with the perfect draw and there are all sorts of reasons she can win this.

3      The Nation         Arindel     Garcia Mar

Had the draw and ran a great head second in the Schuylerville ahead of Keno Queen, then didn’t and finished behind that filly in the Adirondack. That only confirms what we already know which is the draw is the biggest difference between horses these days and it is interesting that these two rivals are drawn next to each other today. They are hard to separate so it may be just a choice of picking one and hoping.

4        Teardrop Falls      Allinthegate        Bejarano R

Won a big ticket maiden at CD and then ran a respectable seventh in the Sorrento Stakes but the jury is still a little out as to whether she can make this grade. She is drawn well which certainly helps and should see this trip out well so would be a decent enough each way chance.

5       Kiss Me Kelsie        Jive Inc.        Hernandez R M

The general rule of thumb for juveniles these days is win a big ticket maiden and then throw them in these early stakes races. It may be the rule of thumb but it does make these races really hard to read. On the plus side she is still on the right side of the draw and she won that SAR maiden like a filly that will stay the mile so there is no reason she wont run well. Her works are a tick off the best of these but that rarely means as much as luck and draw so that is not enough to put me off.


6      The Magic Box        Smokey Stover     Smith M E

Yes you guessed it a big ticket maiden winner, this time at DMR. The big positive for her is that maiden win came at this trip so there are no question marks about the trip especially as she won that race by three easy lengths after making all. The trainer is one of the big names in breeding so she will be a very popular choice.

7          Have One On Me          Fractious         Talamo J

Won the required big ticket maiden on debut at WO but then came unstuck in the Adirondack when never really in the race and finishing eighth. She has a bit to find on that run but gets another chance here to prove her worth.

8         Chopstick            Aer Stables           Pennington F

The stable has been a tour de force in previous years with their young horses but is having a slower start this year. They will inevitably have a few top BC chances though and this one is in the mix on her strong second in the Astoria. Her works are in the right place and this mile will suit her so as long as she can find a path from this draw she will be a chance.

9           Lady Lucky        D J C Racing Stables           Geroux F

This one is certainly going in the right direction and is one of the more experienced runners in the field which can often be an advantage in these races. Two good runs saw her eventually take the required high level maiden at BEL but she continued that improvement with a solid win in the Seeking the Ante. She had a much better draw that day but did it in good style and in a way that suggests this trip wont be a problem.

10        Tongariro Crossing       Smokey Stover         Bridgmohan S X

Like its namesake this one looks like a perfect way to spend you day being unbeaten in two races and already having some black type to her name. Like so many of the top stables are doing she was sent to the front in the ELP Debutante and held on to dead heat for the win. That was over seven furlongs so she should see out the mile although she put in a sticky work over this trip last time. The only unbeaten filly in the field she will have her work cut out from this draw to stay that way.

11       Nostromo      Jive Inc.            Franco M

Won the required high level maiden at the third time of asking over the mile at DMR last time. She did that from the one gate and on the speed and that will be much harder from this draw today so it will be interesting to see where the stable put her in this race. She wouldn’t be my first choice on what we have seen so far.

13       Winged Dancer         Nakamura Stables     Court J K

Gets in off the ballot because she hadn’t won the required big ticket maiden but at least she is in even though the car park will make it very tough for her. The fact that she hasn’t won at a big track however means nothing because she won over a mile by making all (as everything seems to be doing these days) and is working much the same as everything else.

SUMMARY

With everybody wanting to be on the pace as is evident in this race with the amount of all the way winners in it a lot will depend on how the race engine sorts out this field. To be honest it always seems to be one of the big stables runners that manages to find the front and stay there so we should probably go with one of them. Which one of course is a very good question. With zero imagination i am going for Keno Queen to continue Mb’s juvenile domination with Arindel and Smokey chasing her home.



Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES

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