Buffalo Trace Franklin County is Race That Will Tell a Tale, but Which One?

Buffalo Trace Franklin County – Grade III
KEE Race #5 5 1/2f Turf Graded Stake
Purse $150.000 For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward.

1       Five Star Pride       Our Athletes        Hernandez B J Jr

With 4 wins from just ten starts this four year old has been given plenty of time. Her two efforts over longer trips suggest that she is an out and out sprinter and she has certainly proved that with her efforts. Took her last race in 1.02 and 1 over this trip so is fast enough and given her draw and the fact that she enjoyed making all last time i would think she will show early speed again today. She isn’t one of those that you would pick on what she has achieved so far but of she gets out of the gates she could be part of the finish.

2      Supersede         D J C Racing Stables         Cohen D

Her last four races do tell the tale about HRP at the moment in that there isn’t much between a sprinter and a router when it comes to the ability to run fast times. Fourth in the nine furlong Canadian Stakes last time she has also a nose second in the Royal North and another nose second in the grade one Just A Game. So we know she is good and we know she can run over any trip and with the perfect draw today she is sure to be strongly fancied to get in the finish.

3       Early Mornings        Mb Stables          Graham J

In front of Supersede in the License Fee, behind her in the Caress and in front of her again in the Smart And Fancy in each race the one with the draw nearer the rail won, such is the way HRP form seems to work these days. Now they both have great draws we may finally see which one is the best although if things go the way they have Supersede may beat her today. A decent enough sprinter she certainly doesn’t stand out like the stables runners normally do but she wont be far off them.

4       Cassandra G         Angelos Stable        Landeros C

Behind Supersede in the Royal North, in front of her in the Caress and guess what the one with the draw nearer the rail won the match each time. Do you spot the pattern yet? Well as with Early Mornings the fact that they are drawn close together today will make this a much fairer match but on the way you have to read HRP draw form Supersede looks to have the edge. Now having said that i do like this filly and i must admit i veer more towards her although she may just be better over six furlongs and more rather than this slick five and a half.

5        Explain The Pain        Williams9          Murrill M

The trainer throws this three year old with just three runs into the fray here and why not, in years gone by she would have been the odds on favorite being the only three year old. Things have changed this year though so she isn’t a clear cut chance like she would’ve been before. I do like her though. She has won two from three, won her debut over this trip in 1.02 and 3 and won a decent allowance last time out over 5 furlongs. She is fast and she gets 3Lb’s, will it be enough? Maybe.

6       Viking Prayers         Mwn Racing         McKee J

A five year old with only nine starts she has managed four wins already and looks to take a step up today. A decent sprinter at overnight level, she has proved she can go fast but she still has to make her mark at this level.

7      Shes From Kingston       Winning Link Stables      Saez G

Like Explain The Pain would have been taken more seriously last year but she isn’t a bad sort and ran well for a long way in the KD Ladies Turf Sprint last time, eventually fading to seventh but running fast enough to be considered over this shorter trip today. Capable but this is a big test for her.

8      My Girl Makita       Smokey Stover       Albarado R J

She has run 19 of her 22 races over route trips where she has won most of her $1.5K purse haul. This is a classy filly and won the KD Ladies Turf over a mile last time and was also fifth in last years BC Fillies and mares turf. This trip should of course be too sharp for her but that’s not how HRP works and her recent work time was faster than most if not all of the sprinters in this race. She wouldn’t be in real life but here at HRP she is a winning chance.

9       In Style       Asgar       Rocco J S Jr

She has taken a while but she is finally after 15 races beginning to hit the upward curve in her career. The winner of her last two including the Zadracarta Stakes last time she deserves a shot here but may find the opposition a bit hot.

10     Too Scared To Party      Smokey Stover        Garcia Mar

It is interesting to see the two Smokey Stover routers in this sprint race. This one is the winner of the SAR Oaks, The Rodeo Drive and was fourth in the BC Fillies and mares turf last year. Like her stable mate if this was real life they wouldn’t be serious contenders for this and would be seen as just having a pipe opener before the BC but this is HRP and the two best fillies in this race wont care if this is about a mile too short for them.

11      Very Brady        Maletto          Bejarano R

I was surprised to see her beaten in the Zadracarta Stakes last time as i felt she could win that race. A sprinter through and through and good on dirt or turf she gets stuck out in the cheap seats today and that will make it very tough for her. Things will need to go her way but she has ability and if there is a break neck early speed she could come into it late.

12     Gummy      High Voltage     Talamo J

She made all to win the Caress and then ran like a closer last time in the KD Ladies Sprint. Just looking at the two results it is clear where she prefers to be so i suspect she will be set to bounce the lids and use the wide gate speed push today. If she manages to get the lead and cross quickly then she would have a very good chance on her Caress form but that is a tough ask from the car park and she may just set it up for the closer’s.

SUMMARY

A good field of sprinters taking on the class of the two routers from Smokey Stover make this and intriguing race. I have always said a good horse at HRP doesn’t care about the trip or surface unlike their real life counterparts so i am going for the two Smokey Stover runners with maybe My Girl Makita taking advantage of what may be a very fast pace and finishing over the top.



Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES

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