Dissecting BC Juvenile Fillies Turf

BC Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1)- $1,000.000 Purse
DMR- For Fillies Two Years Old
One Mile on the Turf
November 5, 2021

It’s BC weekend once again! Congratulations to everyone out there who has a horse or horses in any of the big races. This article will look at the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf, which will send the field of fourteen a mile around the turf course here at DMR. As we look at the history of the race, one previous winner who jumped out at me was Broomsticks Copy in 2014, since she would go on to win the BC Fillies and Mares Turf a year later. Other very well known winners of this race would be Machiavellian Lady in 2009, who would go on to make two other BC starts in her career. 2018 winner Na Pali would also go on to have a strong career . Also an interesting story is 2011 winner, Princess Elektra, since she would only go on to make one more start in her career. Bayou Star Farm, who guided the horse to her BC win, sold her for $700.000 a month after the win to Kopites, and she would only make one start, an optional claimer, for that trainer. At least she has had regular use in the shed. Last year, the race was won by Common Misconception and Nakamura Stables, and she has gone on to win twice this year, but has not appeared to have accumulated enough points to make the BC Fillies and Mares Turf, whose field is announced on Tuesday. This should be a good race, and it might also be one of the more unpredictable races of the entire weekend, because while races like the Jessamine, Natalma, Miss Grillo, and Surfer Girl are very useful to look at that, they are all so young still with plenty of untapped potential still to come. Here’s a look at the field!

#1- I Love Me (Mb Stables, ridden by C J Hernandez)- This is a race that does not have Mb’s name on the past winners list, and this will be his only entry in the field to try and change that. I Love Me is a Centerpiece filly who broke her maiden here in July in what was both her third career start and her turf debut. She fared well in the Bolton Landing after that, running second, but got her biggest career score six weeks ago up north of the border in the Grade 1 Natalma. Drawing the rail could suit her well to run the type of race here that she did in the Natalma.

#2- Zola (Royalty Stables, ridden by E Jaramillo)- In August, she won on debut on MTH, something that is not easy to do against experienced runners, so right away the trainer had to be really hopeful about the potential of the Thoughtful Idea filly. Her next start showed that confidence, running in the $500.000 KD Juvenile Fillies, where she was second to Ode To My Family, of whom she sees again here. Last month, she was solid, but maybe not quite as impressive, in the Grade 2 Jessamine, placing third.

#3- Tropical Mama (Allinthegate, ridden by J R Velazquez)- If we’re going to go by winning percentages, then this is the favorite for the race. Tropical Mama has been very successful early on in her career, with three wins in her four starts. All of those wins have come on the grass, and two of them are in ungraded stakes. Most recently, she won the $200.000 Surfer Girl at up at SA, which is technically an ungraded race but is a good prep for this race. Seems to have a nose for the wire, and with a good post, she does give the trainer a great chance to win this stake for the first time.

#4- Ginger Lucy (The Sidley Stud, ridden by A Beschizza)- One of the newest Ginger Haggis foals making a strong impression, and she is also the most experienced runner in here with seven lifetime starts. Two of them are wins, with the best result being the $100.000 OT Juvenile Fillies Turf right here at DMR in the beginning of September. Unfortunately, she is not always consistent and has mixed in a couple duds, such as the Miss Grillo (Grade 2) last month. Capable, but more of a risk.

#5- Catawba (Sccj Stables, ridden by L Saez)- This Asset Class filly has a better performance in the Miss Grillo than Ginger Lucy would, placing third in the race. Overall, she has made four starts, and only has her maiden win to speak of. Mixed in there, too, is a third place finish at the KD Juvenile Fillies. On the cusp of winning a big race or two for her career, but this is a tough spot to get that first one.

#6- Molecule (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by S Ryan)- Picked up in a $50.000 claimer when making her second career start in July. She had seemed to have plenty of promise leading into that, but the loss of Keikowin Racing is a great win for D J C Racing Stables. She won her debut for the trainer, but then more impressively, won the Grade 2 Jessamine with an eye-opening stretch performance. That should bode very well for her chances here in the BC. It would be the first win in this race for the veteran trainer.

#7- Blac Widow (Maxmillion Farm, ridden by J K Court)- When Molecule won the Jessamine last month, her stretch run saw her narrowly get by the race’s pace setter, Blac Widow. Now, this Lake Success filly, if she knew better, would not need any more motivation to come up big in this race simply by being in the starting gate next to the one that edged her out. Overall, she has one win in her six starts, but is typically very competitive. She was third when taking on the boys in the KD Juvenile, though the Miss Grillo afterwards was not her best start.

#8- Be Genuine (Hunterman Stable, ridden by T Gaffalione)- So, while Molecule and Blac Widow were finishing 1-2 in the Jessamine, Be Genuine was also part of the fun. No, she didn’t finish third, though. Instead, that is a race that this filly would love to forget as she finished a distant ninth, missing by six lengths. It had to be a big disappointment for the trainer, since she had looked good in the race prior, winning the $100.000 Our Dear Poppy at GP. Early in her career, she is alternating wins and poor starts, so that’s good news for Hunterman Stable in this race. Will that pattern continue?

#9- Path Of Glory (Smokey Stover, ridden by M Franco)- The trainer won this race back in 2018 with Na Pali, and now hopes to follow that path of glory once again. Early in Her career, this filly by Con Artist has been able to hit the board in all four of her starts, but only one of them is a win. Of course that win was a $100.000 mini-stake maiden race at SAR, coming on yielding turf at SAR. In better weather at SA, she was second in the Surfer Girl, missing the headbob to Tropical Mama. No reason why she could not turn the tables here.

#10- Crack America (Gdp Inc, ridden by Ru Gonzalez)- This filly by Safecracker, perhaps one of the most underrated sires in the game, is another example of that one continuing to turn out great foals. She is two for five in her career thus far, and that is highlighted by winning the $120.000 Johnson at SAR in September. After that lies the concern with this horse. She ran in the Miss Grillo, and it was quite a dud, especially with how she broke out of the gate. Passed a few late, but let’s hope that’s a throw out. If you think it is, then she might be a good play. I can’t completely look past it.

#11- Ode To My Family (Arindel, ridden by Mario Gutierrez)- Did not show much in her first two starts, running for Patterson Stables, so that one was willing to sell her off. He still got a nice price for her in August, getting $150.000 from Arindel. With her new trainer, she has found her way, moving to the grass and running long, winning the $500.000 just two weeks later. Now, she also comes out of the Miss Grillo, and did only finish one position better than Crack America. But, her race line shows her being more competitive, in general, so I’m not as concerned with her.

#12- Hoodoo Chase (Alydar Stables, ridden by J Alvarado)- The trainer might have been happy this one did not break her maiden immediately, since when she did, it was one of those appealing $100.000 races at SAR. Winning one of those will certainly generate confidence, and she would go to the Miss Grillo off of that. Unlike the two starting immediately to her inside, that is not a race that ended up disappointing for her. Unless of course, we’re talking about how the win photo ended up for the trainer, as she placed second. She’ll look to build off that here.

#13- Crepellana (YME Stable, ridden by A Cedillo)- So, we will just continue talking about the Miss Grillo now with Crepellana. For her, there was nothing but jubilation with how the race ended as the filly prevailed in the photo with Hoodoo Chase to get the big win. It would be her second career start, coming off a less than exciting finish in a mini-stake N1X allowance ($103.000 purse) at SAR. She ran much different, tactically, in the Miss Grillo, going right out to the lead. Her post position will make things a little more of a challenge, but I would say a similar tactic would occur here.

#14- Crackz (Fractious, ridden by S X Bridgmohan)- Breaking your maiden in the BC while starting from the far outside. Sounds like a pretty impossible thing to do, but it is the task that Crackz faces here. Despite not winning, she has run well, and does come out of the Natalma, a race where she closed well to finish third. She also had a couple of near misses in the two maiden races right before that, so with a little more luck, she does have that win, so she should not be dismissed entirely due to being a maiden. This is also her debut for Fractious, who picked her up in private sales last month for $350.000.

Prediction: 6-7-9-12

— NS



Categories: BC 2021, Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES, THE BREEDERS CUP

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