Ready for the Stampede in BC Juvenile Turf Sprint

BC Juvenile Turf Sprint – Grade II
 DMR Race #11 5f Turf Graded Stake
Purse $1,000.000 For Two Year Olds.

This is always a tough race to really get your teeth into as there are so few qualifying races and horses are improving at such different rates as juveniles. A classic example of that point is the fact that the automatic qualifier Changing Times is 32nd on the rankings here and will push out a horse with a much higher rating.
This is only the seventh running of the race which was first run in 2012 and the score between the fillies and colts is 4 to 2 in favor of the colts. In the first three years the purse for the race was just $100 but since it moved to $1000 we have seen much better quality winners and two of the last three went onto successful careers whilst Diggin Up Bones the 2018 winner wasn’t a winner again and was largely disappointing after her victory.
So what are we looking for here, well speed is key, speed and maturity but at the end of the day this is a race that will be very hard to handicap and really could be won by anything.

Before we look at the runners lets try and get a feel of what it takes to win by looking at previous running’s and stats:


2012 Sqaw Will

Two runs prior to the BC: Second in an optional claimer, first in an ungraded stakes

Form leading up to the BC: 121

Positional Splits during the race: 8,7,3,1

2014 Rajiv Papito

Two runs prior to the BC: Second in an allowance, 12th in the Summer

Form leading up to the BC: 0120

Positional Splits during the race: 8,8,1,1

2016 Solow

Two runs prior to the BC: first in a maiden and seventh in the Breeders Futurity

Form leading up to the BC: 310

Positional Splits during the race: 10,10,1,1

2018 Diggin Up Bones

Two runs prior to the BC: First in an allowance, first in an ungraded stakes

Form leading up to the BC: 1211

Positional splits during the race: 11,11,7,1

2019 Kimura

Two runs prior to the BC: Second and first in ungraded stakes

Form leading up to the BC: 121

Positional Splits during the race: 6,2,1

2020 Bad Precedent

Two runs prior to the BC: Third anf fourth in ungraded stakes

Form leading up to the BC: 41043

Positional splits during the race: 2,2,1,1


Well there is a much smaller sample here so probably not as much use as other examples. Two things stand out to me here. One is that like the BC sprint the majority haven’t been on speed to win this which is surprising given my similar study of the BC Turf. Secondly there haven’t been too many in this race that have lasted long so we are looking for precocious talent. The fact that the two biggest points hauls for this race are both mile races skews the form a bit with most of the runners having performed in ungraded races so the quality can be a bit hit and miss. The KD Juvenile Sprint, The Futurity and the Indian Summer have added some interest this year so there may be an uptick in quality as this race establishes itself and there does seem to be some interesting entries which will make this race more competitive.

Here is how they line up for the 2021 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint.

 


1       Sharkamaulu           Garcia Mar           122

A two year old gelding by Shark Froce out of Hanamaulu

Bred and Trained by Arindel

Form: 400131

He looked pretty ordinary when taking on the dirt in his first three races and whilst they were good quality maidens he didn’t look like he would be involved in the BC at that point in his career. Then came the switch to turf, firstly he scorched home in a big ticket DMR maiden and was immediately sent to black type for his next race on the same surface. The ground came up wet and he again disappointed toiling into third after showing some early pace. The sun was back out for his last start when everything went right and he won the Hollywood Beach by a length which put him in the reckoning for today’s race. The draw will help his on speed racing style but he will have to hold the rail to avoid being swamped, if that happens he has the pace to be in the finish.


2      Rapturous        Gutierrez Mario          119

A two year old filly by Candlestick out of Unaware

Trained by Mb Stables and bred by Gustafson Stable

Form: 110

Winner on debut at ELP and then the winner of the big purse Untappable at KEE she was looking a very decent prospect before she was handed a wide draw in the Matron and ran a disappointing eighth. As luck would have it she is handed the perfect draw again today so i would expect a much better effort although i do just worry this trip may be a bit sharp and she may struggle to keep up. Not easy to weigh up but the stable name, the draw and the fact that she has already won a big race certainly go in her favor.


3       Lake Gunn         Cedillo A        119

A two year old filly by Falling Angel out of Sassy One

Trained and bred by Smokey Stover

Form: 23124

This is the sort of horse that makes this race so hard to handicap and so hard to comprehend as far as qualifying for it goes.She has only raced in one sprint and that was on debut in a maiden on dirt so how the heck she got into this field only the suits really know. She showed her preference for turf when taking a mile and sixteenth maiden on this track and then ran a cracker in both the Natalma and the Jessamine. In both races she ran like a true router closing hard and i must admit i had her ear marked for the longer race at this meet. But like all routers at HRP she works just as fast as the sprinters and with the advantage of our click and play instructions she can be turned into a sprinter. She gets the draw and she has the trainer, now all she needs is a transformation.

4      Amy Is Shameful          Beschizza A          119

A two year old filly by Majestical out of Blondee

Trained and bred by La Canada Racehorses

Form: 011322

Plenty of experience here with four stakes races under her belt. She won the Keswick Stakes in August and has placed three times since in black type company including the Untappable Stakes at KEE and a fast run Speakeasy Stakes last time. This filly has a ton of speed unlike both of her parents and looks just the sort of early bloomer to make her presence felt in this race. The draw is very handy for her and if she gets out of the gate OK she will be on speed for a long way.

5         Changing Times         Ryan S         122

A two year old colt by Moment In Time out of Twlight

Trained and bred by D J C Racing Stables

Form: 211

Identified as a turf runner straight away all three of his races have been on the grass and over the five furlongs. I really liked the way he handled the down hill at SA last time when taking the Speakeasy by a length quickening up from a decent spot just behind the speed. A ton of upside for this entire and looks sure to get the stable off to a great start in their BC weekend, a winning chance for sure.


6       One Bay        Velazquez J R        119

A two year old filly by Bottom Bay out of One Danz

Trained and bred by Gdp Inc

Form: 12113

This is one of the only BC races that is not sexist as the fillies do just as well as the colts and geldings so it is not surprising to see a few here with real chances. A winner on debut at GP she has never really looked back winning two more and running a cracker in the Matron to finish third last time. Her 57 and 4 work at PRX plus the fillies allowance make her a very tempting prospect here.

7        Cross Eyed Bay        Gonzalez Ru          122

A two year old gelding by Bottom Bay out of Grayte Cross

Trained and bred by Gdp Inc

Form: 13201

A neck behind Dereliction of Duty in the Tyro Stakes from a much wider gate must give him a big chance here especially when you consider his win in The Futurity last time the other main race to get into this field. His only real failure came in the grade one Summer over the Mile where he weakened right out of it and that race only confirmed that he is a sprinter through and through, at least for now. There is clearly very little between these horses so it is impossible to try and separate them but he gets the better draw and that may be the biggest difference between the two.

8         Hot Dog       Saenz D       122

A two year old gelding by Proud Chai out of Yonna Donna

Trained and bred by South Shore Stables

Form: 212113

A model of consistency, he was good from day one and has proved he can run on dirt or turf, in the wet or dry. After his maiden win second up he has run in four stakes races in a row winning two of them. and placing in the other two. I guess the main question for him here is can he reverse placings with Changing Times and Amy Is Shameful after his last start where he was behind then when third in the Speakeasy. He got a bit further back that day off a blistering early pace and whereas that would have been OK on the old engine this new one makes it much harder to make ground. He has two lengths to find and that may all be made up at the start so he shouldn’t be written off.

9        Touch Of Irish         Jaramillo E          122

A two year old colt by Worst Case Scenario out of Couldnt Tell

Trained and bred by Mb Stables

Form: 11130

After three gutsy wins in a row including the Hickory tree Stakes over this trip this colt was looking nailed on to come here to this race and start as favorite. He didn’t lose that tag when a close third in the KD Juvenile over a trip that may have stretched his stamina but i must admit i was a bit disappointed by his effort in the Summer last time when a tired seventh after leading through four furlongs. On his efforts so far he has looked all about speed and even this five furlongs has stretched his stamina so it will be interesting to see what the trainer does today. With the usual three runners they may just throw caution to the wind and try and restrain this colt a little or they may use them as their pace setter and see if they can last home. Either way early pace is so important with the new engine and this one has plenty so i expect him to be in the reckoning when the post looms.

10        Dereliction Of Duty       Hernandez R M         122

A two year old gelding by Dumbell Press out of Lunar Surprise

Trained by Alydar Stables and bred by TwinTowersRacing

Form: 431111

Comes here as the best juvenile sprinter on form but only by the width of a cigarette paper so whilst his form figures look impressive it is not as open and shut as it looks. He won his maiden on a muddy dirt track but then went to turf where he has rattled off three stakes win in a row including the KD Juvenile and the Indian Summer. Now whilst those wins look great on his record he hasn’t won by more than a neck since his maiden win and that is just how close this race will be. The thing i love about this gelding is that he has shown so much heart in his wins that it is hard to see anything having the grunt to get passed him and it is that which will ultimately make the difference at the sharp end of this race. The draw is tough and he will need some luck to get a position early but his experience will be worth plenty.

11     Next Edition      Hernandez C J        122

A two year old colt by Apples to Oranges out of Ease Of Sunday

Trained and bred by Mb Stables

Form: 123

Won on the dirt on debut and then ran a strong race in a big ticket allowance at SAR failing by just a head in his first race for 4 months. He then went to the Summer Stakes where he ran a strong third unable to quicken after stalking the pace. I feel he is more of a sprinter than a miler so that was a good effort and his sire although better known as a router did win the Triple Bend in his last season. The draw is tough but then so much of this race will come down to how the race engine sorts them out, if he gets a spot then he has a chance.

12      Two Time         Sanchez M J           122

A two year old gelding by Nebula Fire out of Distant Waters

Trained by Alydar Stables and bred by Greeko Holdem

Form: 14212

I am not sure how or why the trainer sold a BC qualified sprinter for just $60 but Alydar was the beneficiary and many will be kicking themselves that they missed this one in the private sales lottery. A debut winner he then ran very well in the Bashford Manor before a couple of decent efforts in state bred stakes winning one of them. The big moment for him came in his first effort on turf when very nearly winning the Futurity going down by just a neck after a determined finish. It would be the best $60 purchase of the year if he goes on to win this and there is no reason he can’t. The draw may be tough but if he can get in a little and stay close enough then the opportunity may arise to get over the leaders down the stretch.

13        Pride In The Ride         Lezcano J        122

A two year old gelding by High Pride out of Commanding Myra

Trained by Asgar and bred by Smokey Stover

Form: 01014

Well this is another that could turn out to be a great buy as he was picked up for just four dollars pre race. He took a maiden claimer on his second start but then stepped up nicely after a run in the wet to take the Ontario Racing Stakes and put himself in this field. He missed the break but ran on well to be fourth in the Indian Summer last time and with works in the right ball park the only thing that really puts me off about him is the draw. It looks certain that he will go back from out here and that causes its own problems with the new engine but with a bit of luck he is good enough to get in the finish.

14        On Solid Ground          Bridgmohan S X         119

A two year old filly by On High Alert out of Tallandgotabooty

Trained and bred by Oquinn Farm

Form: 23111

She ran in a couple of big ticket early season maidens in her first two races and did well enough that it was clear she was above average. She then stepped down a grade to take her maiden and allowance but then burst back into the big time with a huge win in the Matron in her first turf sprint. Running from a terrible gate she flew home late to capture that race by a quarter length and immediately became a big chance in this race. Her works are strong and her sire was a good sprinter which are big ticks for her but she just may need a little luck in running as she seems to like settling off the pace a little. The wide draw wont matter so much if she does decide to go back but she will need luck not to be hung out wide or taken too far back. A winning chance if things go her way.

15      Techfluence Min         – Also Eligible –          119

A two year old filly by Techfluence out of Minnesotalus

Trained and bred by The Sidley Stud

Form: 33101230

She has been busy this year and has run a couple of nice races along the way, if she gets in the race it will be wide so is a tough choice.

17       Wally           – Also Eligible –        122

A two year old gelding by Neon Wolf out of Decamali

Trained and bred by Royalty Stables

Form: 12

It is a shame this one is stuck in the AE list as he looks a lot better than some that got in the race. Beaten just a nose in the Indian Summer in just his second start last time if he got in he would be a serious chance.

18        Rocky Choked          – Also Eligible –       122

A two year old gelding by Cocky Rocky out of Gag Gift

Trained and bred by Martyparty

Form: 212

Unlikely to make the field but ran well enough last time to give him a hope if he does.


SUMMARY

Well try and pick a winner out of that lot !!!!!!!! Maybe a special bet to see how many dead heats there are because there really isn’t much between them and those that do have good form have been handicapped by the draw. If in doubt go for an MB runner is what my Mother always says but even that isn’t as easy as it sounds as their three runners are pretty much the same. Rapturous has the draw so that may be the best choice but it is easy to make a case for Changing Times, One Bay, Dereliction Of Duty and Cross Eyed Bay on the same basis. Good luck to all in a lottery of a race that could end up with more than four runners taking home a paycheck.



Categories: BC 2021, Grade II, Races, STAKES ARTICLES, THE BREEDERS CUP

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