The Remsen – Grade II [KYD]
AQU Race #4 1 1/8m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $250.000 For Two Year Olds.
1 The Godfather Smokey Stover Alvarado J
When a BC winner gets a great draw and its trained by the heir to the throne you have to sit up and take notice even though this ones BC win came on turf and not today’s surface. I guess any good horse is looking to the TC and one feels that without any real evidence that this one will be suited by dirt the trainer had to give him a go at the top level to find out what his future will be. He will certainly see out the nine furlongs here and as a dual grade one winner on the grass we know he has the class it really is just a matter of having faith that his rather ordinary run in the SAR Special was more to do with the trip than the surface. With the second and third in the BC Juvenile here this race will answer plenty of questions.
2 Blasphemy Mb Stables Bahen S R
Took the Iroquois before a good effort in the BC Juvenile making the running from an awkward draw but not lasting home. He was only a length behind the winner though at the end and one feels with the great draw today he will be able to take the stalk and be much stronger at the end. The stable oozes with TC hopefuls every year and this and their other runner look to move up that ladder today. The draw will certainly help but i am not sure that this is the best in the field over all.
3 Chai West Alydar Stables Hernandez R M
This is a nice sort but so far his running style is not conducive to winning on the new race engine and he has suffered. He managed to overcome it in the Breeders Futurity and prevailed by a quarter length but got way too far back in the BC Juvenile and could never make up the ground. The draw in the Breeders Futurity is what helped him overcome the Race engine and he gets a good enough draw today so may just be allowed to lay up closer. This is a very nice sort but you have to rely on more things than his ability certainly through the first half mile so he is a risky bet. He could win though in an open contest.
4 Declassification Smokey Stover Saez L
The second stable runner he has won his only race on a dry track and lost the two on off tracks so the weather may be the main root of his chances. Tough to weigh up but his works are strong enough and with a trainer that is making gold from cotton at the moment you have to take him seriously.
5 Disciplinary Fractious Baird E T
Bought for $550 after a poor effort in the Hopeful unfortunately for the stable he repeated that in the Breeders Futurity in the last start making this a bit of an acid test for the son of Commanding. His works are pretty good so there is no reason why he wont do better but he is still on the small side so may just need a bit more time to start moving back up his improvement curve.
6 Dwindle Mb Stables Franco M
The second stable runner and certainly one that wouldn’t have looked out of place in the BC but he took a different route in the end. A fair fourth in the DMR Futurity he then disappointed in the Breeders Futurity which suggested looking at both efforts that maybe he didn’t stay the trip. That however is a very hard assumption to make at HRP on race performance alone and was proved so when he came out and took the Nashua by an easy two lengths and looked to run every yard of the mile. That last effort points to a strong chance but this is a tougher race.
7 Hardline Cobra TwinTowersRacing Ryan S
Doubled up with good maiden and allowance wins but has come up a little short in his two efforts since being upped in grade. The difficulty in reading that form is that both were in completely different races and both were on off tracks so i don’t think we can really draw any conclusions from the efforts. The stables horses always step up and give their best so i would expect this one to be competitive but he is not top of my pile.
8 Bruddafrmanuddamudda Arindel Saez G
A commentators nightmare this son of Shark Force has some decent form so should be a contender. He has the advantage that he has won over this trip, last time in the Coronation Futurity so that is a tick in the box although he came from a much nicer draw that day. This is a step up for sure and his works are a tick behind some of these so we will need to see some improvement but i liked the way he won last time and the trainer s in great form this year.
9 Paco D J C Racing Stables Garcia Mar
Took one of the first juvenile stakes races way back in April but has struggled a little since. He would need to find a few lengths and gets no favors from the draw monster to do that here so he would have to just be a hopeful chance. The works are OK but not the best and i feel a top 6 finish would be a good result for him.
10 Come With Assets Fractious Moran D
Another one the trainer bought for big bucks he finally looked worth every penny when running a fine and close third in the BC Juvenile last time coming from behind from a terrible draw. He gets a third rotten draw in a row here so will need some luck especially if he gets behind like he did in the BC again. I would be more confident of he was drawn two but he has to be a winning chance.
11 Letters By The Bay Wood Duck Stables Ortiz J L
Won a turf maiden by a nose and was then fourth in the Coronation Futurity last time. Scope for improvement but he will need to improve a lot.
12 Come To Poppa South Shore Stables Morales P
His form reads a bit up and down but i think that is down to his running style which seems to be from off the pace. A great second in the Hopeful and then a very near miss when a nose second in the BC Juvenile you can see how the draw is so important in his races as an inside draw helped him stay closer early on whilst other efforts from wide draws have seen him get too far back. Of course the click of a button can turn him into a front runner but it is clear he is very good and i wonder if the trainer will be willing to take that risk. Like Come With Assets would be a huge chance from an inside draw but out here in the car park there has to be a little luck come into it.
A great race indeed and one where the early muddy waters of next years TC chase will see some clarity. I really liked Come With Assets and Come To Poppa on their BC efforts but the wide draw makes them risky bets along with the turf champ who gets the draw but i am not sure dirt will suit. The other one i like is Chai west but there are questions there with his running style so this really is a race where the race engine will be the biggest player. I think the draw will help Chai West stay closer so he will be my tentative choice.