An Exodus in The Swale Stakes Changes the Complexion of the Race

The Swale Stakes – Grade III
GP Race #3 7f Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $100.000 For Three Year Olds.

This race has cut up due to Mb Stables withdrawing their interest in the race and Fractious taking their horse out possibly for a sale offer. So we are left with nine runners and a few stables scartching their heads after they were ballotted out of the chance to run.

Here is how they line up:

1      Elemental          Mo Mentum Farm         Lopez P

Comes into the reckoning here not only on his two from three record but also a recent 1.10 and 3 work for the six furlongs. Add to that the ace draw and we have a live contender who could be taking a tentative step towards a tilt at the KYD. Up to now the horse has run three times on turf and three times at five furlongs making this a bit of a litmus test for him. That works says he is improving and the dirt holds no fears so the remaining question of trip looks to be answered today.

2       Orange Chicken        Arindel    Gutierrez R

One of the talking horses early in his career after a fifth in the DMR trials that was followed up by two nice maiden runs and a nose second in the Bashford Manor. Since then however the hype has proved to be just hype as he has struggled to make his mark. It is not that a couple of stakes seconds is bad it just feels like he was going to achieve so much more. He gets a great draw today over what may be his favorite trip so if there was a time to kick start his career it would be now.

3 Disciplinary Fractious – Scratch –

4      First Rule        Axeman         Saez G

After being bought at auction for just nine dollars he showed that to be a shrewd purchase with a very nice allowance win at FG on the second of Jan. His works have been strong for the new trainer who seems to found the key to unlocking his potential with a concoction of drugs and adds. Chances from a nice draw with an empty box inside him.

5    Blamethespeedparty      Martyparty       Gaffalione T

Highly consistent in a short career over any trip or surface and i do like to see that in a horse. Good horses do well in any race at HRP and i think this is a good horse who will excel once the trainer settles on a campaign for him. His works are certainly there and the draw is good so he must be rated a chance.

6         Hufflepuff         Arindel          Juarez N

Twp five furlong turf runs are hardly what you expect for a race like this but at HRP trip and surface mean little and this one has thrown a 1.10 and 3 dirt six furlong work into the mix. The trainer is turning water into wine at the moment so i expect this one to be a major contender especially with no entries from his two main rivals.

7         Storm The Gates       The Sidley Stud      Alvarado J

Fair efforts in some lesser stakes races shows that this one is on the cusp and could easily step up his game today. He runs like the seven furlongs will suit and i expect a big effort from him today.

8          Proxy         D J C Racing Stables         Davis D

One of the more experienced runners in the race he hails from a stable who is never afraid of having a go. What this one lacks in that finishing burst he makes up with in heart and consistency so he will not be far away at the end. A bit exposed compared to some and he may lack the scope but nevertheless he is in with a chance.

9 Championship Rounds Mb Stables – Scratch –

10     Valvano           Royalty Stables          Talamo J

An interesting entry i feel he is far better than his form figures and i rather liked his effort in the Smarty Jones last time. He never has much luck with the draw monster so i don’t think that will bother him and whilst this trip may be on the short side for him he will be finishing stronger than most. A dark horse that i like for odds.

11     America First        TwinTowersRacing         Gutierrez Mario

Wow this horse has gone from being beaten 18 lengths on debut to being beaten six lengths second up, then a third of five at CT and finally to winning a decent maiden and working a stakes winning time. It just goes to show that some of these horses can improve out of nothing. It is a shame that he is stuck in the car park because i think this is an exciting prospect for the stable who will be even more exciting of he can win from the outside draw today.

12 Fireside Story Mb Stables – Scratch –

SUMMARY

Well with no Smokey, Mb or Nakamura it seems pretty obvious that Arindel will win this. Hufflepuff looks the obvious choice but being a glutton for punishment i am going for a couple of wide draws to either spice up the exotic bets or give us a big single pay out. Those two are Valvano and America First



Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES

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