FG Stakes – Grade III
FG Race #7 1 1/8m Turf Graded Stake
Purse $150.000 For Four Year Olds And Upward.
1 La Terrifiant Smokey Stover Saez L
This great seven year old mare has been taking on the boys for a while and managed to beat them in the DMR Mile last year. With the current trends it looks like she has an even better chance this year and with the ace draw must be a very serious chance. There is always the question with great horses as they age as to when they will drop off the cliff and whilst she was very good in the Pegasus World Turf Cup when fourth on seasonal debut i do see a slightly worrying trend in her public works. I will be cheering for her as always but this winner of $6715 must slow down at some point and it is matter of when and not if.
2 Cool Dude Que Nakamura Stables Achard A
The five year old has only won the five races but has shown much improvement in his last half dozen races and looks to be one that is finding a peak in his improvement curve. An on pace runner he gets the perfect draw to lead or stalk and that will be a big advantage but he has to improve again today and that may be the unknown factor. The works say he just keep getting better so he is a live chance in a tough field.
3 Rocky Mountain High TwinTowersRacing Velazquez J R
In his last six races he has competed from five and a half furlongs to nine furlongs and done pretty well albeit not at this class level. His works have been solid and that worries me as this trainer can make me look a fool when it comes to picking winners. A good draw so it wouldn’t surprise me to see this one in the top four at huge odds.
4 Butter Ball Angelos Stable Hernandez B J Jr
The seven year old has been a force to be reckoned with for a long time but like La Terrifiant gets to an age where it can all come crashing down very quickly. A strong second at grade one level last year says he hasn’t slipped too far but i feel a top four finish would be a huge achievement for him at this stage in his career.
5 World Cup Invicta Group Llc Murrill M
This sort of entry always looks easy to dismiss at this level but it only takes a bit of luck in running and one or two of the others to have a bad start and suddenly they can come into it. A winner at TUP last time in a small optional claimer shouldn’t be good enough but racing at TUP this year has been as good as SA so that form shouldn’t be treated too lightly. I can’t see how he can win but this is HRP and if he does there will be ten reasons why he did.
6 Invade The Storm Saratoga Stud Cedillo A
A consistent four year old he has run well at stakes level before including fair efforts in both the KYD and the Preakness last year. A recent 1.34 and 1 work says he is better than a two race winner and if there is a dark horse in the field i would say he is it.
7 Hallowed Halls Rock Creek Graham J
The mare gets thrown in here to try and follow the trends that we have seen with the three year olds. She isn’t too bad a filly with some good runs in top company but she has a good few lengths to find with la Terrifiant without even talking about the boys so i can’t see her winning. You can’t blame the stable for having a go but place money looks her best chance.
8 Trumbull Valley Mb Stables Hernandez C J
The winner of the Bowling Green last year this five year old has been very competitive at this level and will be a chance. Like all the stable horses he is working like a grade one winner but one feels he will need a little bit of fortune to win this. Why? Well i think he is a little one paced in a finish so will either have to lead and not have to go too quick or settle in the stalk and get a break on them down the stretch. A winning chance but i feel not a clear cut one.
9 Noble Decision Nakamura Stables Albarado R J
Fairly lightly raced this four year old has done well enough but is working better than his form which suggests there has been some improvement in the last few months. The draw is tough for him to carry that through to this race and he hasn’t raced for a while so i feel he will do better after this race rather than being a winning chance today.
10 Gabilondo Fractious Gutierrez Mario
The stable is still here and racing and enters a useful horse who one feels has not yet produced his best form figures. There are glimpses there though with a graded stakes placing but this draw may have ended his best chance of stealing some of the purse. Capable of getting in at the finish if things go his way.
11 Beach Xaar Diablo Diablo Gutierrez R
I feel this is another four year old that has yet to fulfill his full potential although after a brilliant seasonal debut win in the Unusual Heat Turf Classic this may be his year. He nearly won the National Museum of Racing last year and was only a length behind the winner in the WO Mile so the ability is clearly there and if you add that to some fine works recently there is every reason to expect a big effort. The draw of course in the problem so he will have to rely on the race engine or instructions lottery but of he gets some luck he could be the boy to beat the girls.
12 Lets Do It Big Boy RNP Stables Parker D L
This brilliant old warrior has been a crowd favorite for a long time and there is no doubt that his best form could win this race but the warning flags came out in the Pegasus last time when he ran an uncharacteristic tenth and i wonder whether his time has come for a quieter life. I hope not but this draw will make it very tough for him to bounce back although this writer would love to be writing about a famous win should he manage it.
With the draw and the fact fillies and mares seem to have an advantage at the moment La Terrifiant looks the safest option here. I do feel however that if Beach Xaar can defy the draw and the trends that he may be the one and his odds are sure to be much better than the mares. Invade The Storm may further add to the exotic bet odds.