San Carlos Stakes – Grade II
SA Race #9 7f Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $200.000 For Four Year Olds And Upward.
1 Splash Mountain John Henry Bridgmohan S X
Arguably the best horse in training at HRP and looks to this race to inch him closer to the magic 10K in prize money. I can’t even begin to list the great wins by this horse but as a seven year old it is probably more important to look at his more recent efforts to try and find any sign of a slow down. In his most recent run and seasonal debut after a break since his great third in the BC Classic he ran yet another great race to be third in the Pegasus World Cup and to be honest that is head and shoulders above any thing here. With the ace draw he should and deserves to start odds on favorite.
2 Call Me Mac Simmer Down Stable Rispoli U
The winner of 14 races this six year old has proven he knows were the winning post is but has yet to tackle this sort of grade. The stable is great at placing their horses to maximum advantage but one feels they have thrown this one in here just to give him a chance of the glory he probably deserves. His works are actually as good as any graded stakes winner so you can’t write him off especially from the best draw.
3 Russian Dictator Gdp Inc Espinoza V
With a name like this you would hope that he breaks down and finishes last before being euthanized but that would be unfair to a horse that doesn’t choose his name and is an honest old warrior even if this level may be beyond him. His works are solid and take Splash Mountain out of this and he would have an each way chance.
4 Rock N Rattle Angelos Stable Van Dyke D
Had been ticking along at overnight grade but turned a corner at the end of last year with a solid third in the Kennedy Road Stakes and then came out in his first run of the year and took the grade three Toboggan. He saw the trip out perfectly that day getting up on the line and it is always good to have a horse that has won in the grade over seven furlongs because it can be a bit of a specialist trip.
5 Ginger Clean The Sidley Stud Baze T C
He recorded a massive 101 speed figure when winning the Palos Verdes last time coming home a comfortable length clear and making it three wins from his last four runs. We often see these older horses start a climb up the improvement curve as they turn five and that is certainly the case for this one considering a few months ago he was winning a tiny race at lowly GRP.
6 Grand Cyclone Smokey Stover Baird E T
From the stable that likes its girls this one has made more money in sales that it has on the track but you get the feeling that she is on the cusp of greatness it is just whether this stable can push her over the edge. A very nice winner of the Sugar Swirl she did well in the Inside Information but looked a shade one paced and i just wonder whether that it is biggest Achilles heel. I think she needs to make the running and kick in the stretch to win this but se has a difficult gate to do that from.
7 Hard Discretion TwinTowersRacing Moran D
I have said it many times that this stable could win the Derby with a donkey and whilst this is no donkey it does fall into the category of outsider. Fairly lightly raced he improved to take the Native Diver Stakes over nine furlongs last year but has disappointed twice since and drops make in trip to try and find his mojo.
8 Tko John Henry Garcia Mar
The stable has a real strong hand here and this one who took the Wood Memorial last year and then ran a fair race in the KYD was bought from Fractious for a very fair price. After looking like a router he was brought back to sprinting and took the grade one Jerkins Memorial over this trip and whilst he hasn’t won again there really aren’t many in this field that could compete at grade one level. He can be a shade inconsistent so you have to take that gamble if you back him but he is more than capable of winning.
9 Hard To Forgive D J C Racing Stables Hernandez R M
Working like a stakes winner struggling to win at overnight level, it is the story of HRP but he has done enough to suggest he can get into this if he gets some luck from the car park draw.
Well Splash Mountain is the obvious choice here even though this trip is well short of his best. The ace raw should allow him to lay up close enough to mow them down late. John Henry could well get a one two with TKO but that horse is too inconsistent to really go with with any confidence so i would look at one of teh others to chase him home at odds.