Outside Pair Look to Have Advantage in FL Oaks

The 18th Running of the G3 FL Oaks

March 12, 2022 14:35

TAM Race #8 $200.000

11/16 Turf  3YOF 120 Lbs (plus penalties)

Track Record-1:38.90 (Salty Sam-2012)

Stakes Record-1:39.62 (Girl Talk-2015)

As part of an action-packed Saturday at TAM, the G3 FL Oaks will go as Race #8.  We have a half-dozen sophomore fillies that have signed on to go 8.5 furlongs over the TAM turf for the lion’s share of the $200.000 purse.  With only nine wins between the six entrants, Saturday provides an excellent opportunity for one of these fillies to step up to bigger and better things and all six will race toting 120-pounds.  Here’s the field who will line the gate for the G3 FL Oaks at TAM:

#1 Kiss Me Kelsie (Fractious/E. Jaramillo): Purchased just 10-days ago and heads east for the first time since October.  Just missed to the BC-winner at TUP against open company in her latest and that result seems to be a habit for this gal: 1 win vs 3 places in just 7 starts.  Think she’ll definitely cash here; just not sure it will be the biggest prize.  Contender.

#2 Stayinschoolrene (Rock Creek/M.J. Sanchez): Filly returns to the same level where she was 4th last month down at GP.  She was beaten only three lengths that day as she broke from stall nine, so should appreciate this inner draw.  Needs some help getting a pace to run at, but she’ll get the trip and may pass enough to get a minor prize.

#3 Swam Pass (TwinTowersRacing/J.R. Velazquez): Two starts, but already graded-placed and plenty of upside.  Battled on the front-end last month before fading to 3rd, she should be even more cranked for this effort.  No published works on her tab, so have to expect the conditioner is pleased with what she’s been doing on the farm.  The lack of experience is a double-edged sword, but have to think she is one of the ones in here.

#4 Ode To My Family (Arindel/J.C. Ferrer): Won a $500.000 KD stake to break her maiden, but she’s been up the track in three subsequent stakes starts.  Did manage a pair of close losses against allowance foes, so not sure what to make of her.  On her best day she is a definite win contender, but how to predict when we’ll see her best.  On the fence, but leaning against in this spot. 

#5 Defending Commander (Hippyheart/D.E. Centeno): Picked-up a full five lengths of improvement on her mile work time between November and December before confirming that improvement in her sophomore bow.  That win was her first start on the lawn (she’s a G1-winner on dirt) and she looks well-spotted to make it two in a row.  Look out.

#6 Tell Milady (Nakamura Stables/M. Franco): Up to this point in her career, she’s been a more likely candidate for the G1 KYO in a couple months.  Her lone turf try was a 3rd place effort in a SA listed stake where she faded a bit after getting clear early.  Have to assume that she will be forwardly-placed again as she doesn’t want to get hung wide.  Talent is talent and you have to respect her presence in here, but think she’s 2nd-best.

Final Analysis: 5-6-3 is how we see the G3 FL Oaks.  Good luck everyone!



Categories: Grade III, Races, STAKES ARTICLES

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