Lexington – Grade III [KYD]
KEE Race #2 1 1/16m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $400.000 For Three Year Olds.
1 Dellas Boy Alydar Stables Centeno D E
Right up to the very last day of last year this one was struggling in maidens albeit competitive ones. However when the year turned and 6 weeks in we saw a much improved horse win his maiden at SA coming from a long way back to win by just under a length. When looking for winners at HRP you have to be ready for these ‘code’ changes when they find a few lengths of improvement through ageing, or instructions, or just for no other reason than they are given a boost. This one has certainly found his upward improvement curve and followed up that maiden win with a solid second in the Hutcheson Stakes over an inadequate six furlongs. back over a longer trip today and from an ideal draw to help him stay closer to the pace it wouldn’t surprise me to see him run a big race against some horse with vastly superior form.
2 Paco D J C Racing Stables Davis D
It is great to see two things here. One this stable finally getting some competitive draws in these big races and secondly the fact that they are getting some good results again at last. Considering the draws this one has had he has run pretty well most notably when fourth in the SUN Derby last time. This draw will certainly be a relief to him and i can see him being competitive in this race as long as the quick turnaround doesn’t effect him.
3 Shamo Mb Stables Hernandez C J
Bought from the great Spinetingling for $250 last summer he has proved he was always much better than a free track horse with some competitive efforts in top three year old company. I thought his best run despite thirds in the Jerome and The Withers came last time out in the TAM Derby where he had a rotten draw and a slow start but still made up plenty of ground to be fifth. A much better draw today and a recent gelding operation may see a big improvement and if that is the case he could just about win.
4 Magnetar Sunny J Farm Ortiz J L
Twice a winner in overnights this is a big step up for the home bred and whilst he looks a bit out classed the way results have been going it is impossible to write him off. If he has any chance however, he will have to get his start sorted out as that will make things very difficult of he s going to prove his metal today.
5 Crypto Woogaloo Cedillo A
Unlike his name this is a fairly consistent sort who certainly deserves a crack at this good prize. Fair in the Iroquois and then a decent second in the Golden State Juvenile as a two year old he was given plenty of time to mature and we didn’t see him again until the 5th March. Despite a long break he made all in a competitive SA allowance winning in a strong time and whilst second up can always be a sticky run he has since worked a sub 1.37 mile time suggesting that may not be an issue. I like this ones chances a lot especially as he is a home bred, bred entirely from in house horses. A winning chance in my books.
6 Caliguska Mb Stables Ferrer J C
Eight sprints and 3 wins, it does make you wonder whether this one will use its speed to help its stable mate. I must admit though it has been a long time since MB has used a throw away rabbit so i think there is a chance here for a horse that has won his last two and was very impressive in The Ocala Sophomore over seven furlongs last time. He may end up being the dark horse and i feel he has the sort of confo that can get this trip if things go his way.
7 Speightstown Nakamura Stables Carrasco V R
This is so one of those horses that is difficult to read. The winner of just one race at the start of the year he ran fifth in an overnight before a decent second in the TUP Derby this year, neither races really stamping this horse as a big chance in a $400 race. However, and this is where you have to read between the lines at HRP, he has broken 1.37 twice this year in work outs and smashed out a 1.10 and 1 six furlong work to boot, works that put him up with the best of the KYD qualifiers. So what is he? A morning glory or a grade one runner? We can’t really tell until after they cross the line but if any stable can get him to run his best it will be this one so watch this space.
8 Ey Mon Arindel Saez L
The Battaglia Memorial has been a great form race this year and this one was second there before running second in the SUN Derby and those two efforts must make him among the favorites to win this race. Add to that the up and coming stable Arindel and we have a lively chance who only has to overcome a difficult draw. He has had his fair share of bad draws, which often seems to happen to individuals but both of his last two great efforts have come from tough draws that may not be a problem for him today.
9 America First TwinTowersRacing Saez G
If ever there was a stable that could extract a horse with a great name from a rotten draw with form that says he may struggle it is this one. Interestingly his best effort when running a close fourth in the Swale came from a wide draw so he actually may be suited by this gate as when he has been drawn closer to the rail he has looked a bit one paced. On form i would find it hard to see him winning but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him in a top four.
10 Cheveley Park Mo Mentum Farm Velazquez J R
You know when you go to the casino and you play a completely random game and you don’t get any luck whatsoever….well that’s how the trainer must feel here because after a random gate draw they have ended up with the two widest gates. What will hurt more is that both these horses have the form to win this race but at least with two out here in the cheap seats the stable may be able to work the instructions to get one of them running their best race. So what of this ones chances? Well after three fair races in previous qualifiers where he got spat out the back with the no hopers the instructions were finally changed (or the RE finally gave him a break) and he ended up closer to the pace in the Ruby Stakes last time. Keeping on gamely he dead heated for second that day in a seasons best effort but he will find it far harder from out here to get a similar run so his best chance will lay with what the pace is and what the race engine does with him today.
11 The Martian Mo Mentum Farm Jaramillo E
You don’t get much better lead in form that this when taking a last ditch effort at KYD qualification. Second in the Smarty Jones, fourth in the Southwest, third in the Risen Star and then third again in the FL Derby is by far the best set of form for any horse in this race. BUT, and this is a big BUT. He gets the car park draw AND he last raced just two weeks ago, two things which will make his job very hard here. The good thing for the trainer is that he ran a great second in the Smarty Jones from a similar draw so they know he can do it and that he will be rock solid fit for this race with a work in between to knock off the dust. Mark my words this one could easily win and probably deserves to but he wont have an easy task.
Well if the Martian was drawn two then i would be all over it but he becomes a very different betting proposition from the car park draw. Ey Mon, Shamo and paco have the right form lines to win but i am more tempted with a couple that may just represent some good odds. Dellas Boy may surprise a few here and i feel Caliguska may run big but my dollar each way will be falling on Crypto as i just feel he may be better than what he has done so far.