Outer Half Looks Stronger in Peter Pan

The 17th Running of the G3 Peter Pan

Saturday, May 14, 2022

BEL Race #5 Post Time 14:35

$200.000 11/8 Dirt

3YOs 122 Lbs (Plus Penalties)

Track Record-1:46.02 (Jimmies Fourpeat-2012)

Stakes Record-1:47.87 (Black Mojo-2016)

For the 17th time, Saturday’s G3 Peter Pan will serve as the local prep for next month’s G1 BEL Stakes.  The mile-and-one-eighth race carries a $200.000 purse and drew nine sophomores who will all carry 122-pounds.  Through 16 renewals, Night Rider Stables (2013, 2021) is the only trainer with more than one of these to his credit and 16 different jocks have gotten their picture taken.

All nine tasked with this assignment competed on the KYD trail at least once, but, after missing-out on last weekend’s festivities, try their luck here in hopes of racing in the final jewel of the TC series.  Here’s your field for the 2022 G3 Peter Pan:

#1 Paco (D J C Racing Stables/S.X. Bridgmohan): Gelding will make a 5th consecutive start at this G3 level that has proven hard to be a hard nut to crack.  Started his career with back-to-back wins but has only one ITM finish in 10 starts since.  Needs a form reversal and there’s no better place than breaking from the rail to try to end a skid.  Others appear to be in better form.

#2 Disciplinary (Nakamura Stables/D. Davis): G3-winner has changed hands twice for large sums since September but has only ran three times since the first of those changes in ownership.  This will be his 2nd run for this conditioner and his 2nd start as a sophomore.  Colt won at second-asking and followed-up with that G3 score; however, been a while since he visited the winner’s circle.  Expecting a better effort for this one but should be tougher the next time he appears. 

#3 Good Guy (Arindel/J.R. Velazquez): No rest for the weary as gelding will be making the sixth start of ’22.  Only has an allowance tally over state bred foes to show for it, but he’s coming here off of a good 3rd in a G2.  The break seems to be an issue; however, when he breaks well, he runs well.  Hard to endorse given the inconsistency, but a minor award seems within his reach.

#4 Burnsuwhenitshot (TwinTowersRacing/J. Lezcano): Colt ended his juvenile campaign with back-to-back scores but has been OTB in the other seven career starts.  He’s another that struggles with the break so we should no early what kind of effort he is going to produce.  He is a stakes-winner, but he needs to prove he can compete at this level to keep getting these opportunities.

#5 Spiced (Smokey Stover/M. Franco): G2 victory in juvenile finale completed a three-race winning streak.  He had a couple of near misses to begin this season before the dud at AQU last time.  Think he’s better than that and we’ll draw a line through that one.  Work tab says he’s better than he’s ever been and he appears well-spotted to get back on track.  One of the ones.    

#6 Crazy Ivan (Mb Stables/Ru. Gonzalez): First of three for top conditioner, this guy was purchased for $70.000 in January, and started ’22 with a couple of nice wins before struggling in KEE G1 last out.  Bit of an all-or-nothing type, his three wins are the only ITM finishes he has in eight career starts.  Not the most consistent horse in the barn, but, if he can navigate a trip, could be moving nicely in the latter stages. 

#7 Rudy Is With Me (Mb Stables/A. Cedillo): Purchased for $150.000 after his seasonal bow, he took an allowance and a listed stake in his first starts for the new barn.  Outran his stablemate inside of him when he was only beaten a length last month at KEE.  Running style seems identical to the six horse, but this guy is more consistent with the type of effort he gives.  Fact that he tries this 9-furlong trip again is a positive sign that barn is happy with him.  Contender.

#8 Dragons Teeth (Alydar Stables/K. Carmouche): Took a while to exit the maiden ranks and, when he did, they put him in a G3 prep.  He rallied from the back to snag fifth, but he was never in contention at SUN.  Should be better from that experience, and have to like the confidence being shown to try this level again.  He can’t afford to spot this group 10-lengths, but he’s capable of showing better if he settles a bit closer to the pace.  Minor placing possible.

#9 Killer Instinct (Mb Stables/E. Jaramillo): Yes, he’s drawn outside, but he ran a really good 5th in last month’s G1 try from the 14-hole.  He was only beaten a length that day, and, while the runners exiting that race didn’t factor in the KYD, the 11th-placed horse was an impressive G2 winner on the undercard.  Colt was G1-placed as a juvenile and may be rounding back into that kind of form.  Don’t like the post, but he’s the top pick in a wide-open affair.

Final Analysis: 9-5-3-7 is how we’ll play it, but this should be a competitive renewal of the G3 Peter Pan.  Good luck to all of the connections! 

Categories: Grade III, Races, STAKES ARTICLES

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