Who’ll Have the Winning Card in The MTH Stakes?

The MTH Stakes (Grade 3)- $150.000 Purse
MTH- For Three Year Olds and Upward
One Mile and One Eighth on the Turf
June 18, 2022

For the 12th time, the MTH Stakes, held at its namesake venue, will be going to post and it will send a field of eight a total of nine furlongs around the turf course. Headlining this field will be Hollywood Capo, a winner of over $1,000.000 in his career, but that doesn’t mean the others are going to be in awe of him. This race first appeared on the schedule in 2010 with a $250.000 purse, and briefly was a Grade 2 before going back to being a grade 3 race. The race was not held in 2016. Last year, Farquaad was the winner for Night Rider Stables and while he is active still, he has not run since October where it was a forgettable effort. Let’s take a look at the full field for this year’s race!

#1- Mr Insurrection (Aer Stables, ridden by Sa Camacho)- After being gelded around this time last year, this horse won back to back races and earned his way into the BC Juvenile Turf. That race did not go well, and the trainer must have lost a lot of confidence given that his next race was at TUP. He won there, then at least ran in a stake at TUP, which he also won. Aer Stables must be feeling a lot better with the results of his horse now as he runs in a graded even for the first time since BC day.

#2- Bright Carat (Black N Gold Stable, ridden by J Rendon)- A horse that has been red hot, and you can credit the trainer for getting him that way. Black N Gold Stable claimed the gelding for $12.50, a race that he did win, and he would then win his next four while in his new silks. Each was an optional claimer, including a couple at TUP himself. His last start saw him run in the Grade 2 Dinner Party, and he came on strong to be second there. That was a good race, and he can build on that here.

#3- Black Card (Wood Duck Stables, ridden by N Juarez)- This is still a lightly raced horse, having made just four starts thus far. After getting his debut race out of the way, Black Card has only known how to finish a race with a trip to the winner’s circle, with two wins at SA, and then at WO. That WO race was the first time he ran long, and he won it while pulling away, by two lengths, so I only expect better things here. As one of the three year olds, he carries six less pounds too, which obviously play in his favor nicely.

#4- World In Changes (TwinTowersRacing, ridden by Jo Torres)- It’s been a while since this horse last won a race, coming before election day in 2020. Despite that, he has continued to be placed regularly in graded stakes without seeing much inflation in his career earnings. His last start, an optional claimer, was the first time hit the board since that win. It came with the addition of a shadow roll, and now based on the form, he’ll have Bute as well. Maybe these will work out.

#5- Buffalo G (Nakamura Stables, ridden by A Santos)- The veteran Roebuck gelding will be making the 25th start of his career and looking for his ninth win. He’s another horse that has had success at TUP this year that is in this field, winning the $100.000 Fitzsimmons Mile Handicap. See, when they say those TUP stakes are hard to win and not to gloss over them, this is what we’re talking about. Followed that up with a sharp looking effort at the SF Mile in late April, and has not been back on the track since.

#6- Inbred (Arindel, ridden by J L Gonzalez)- When not running in graded stakes, Inbred has been a very productive horse, but he struggled to get a result in both of his graded tries. That said, his last race, the Grade 1 Forester Turf Classic, was a tough way to make your first start going at a long in almost a year and a half. Especially when you only had two weeks of rest. With that behind him, he’ll be happy to see a field that is not as tough as that one was, and he has been better in ungraded stake attempts.

#7- Hollywood Capo (Nakamura Stables, ridden by H R Diaz Jr)- No one in this field has the resume that Hollywood Capo has, as the five year old gelding has won $1,020.000 in his career, with two big graded wins. The highlight of his career up to this point is the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile last October that he won and punched his ticket to the BC Mile with. Since the BC, the results have been less exciting, but possibly his last race, the Grade 3 Louisville, has him going back in the right direction.

#8- Puissance de La Mer (Big Guns Stables, ridden by A Jimenez)- The three year old won the first two races of his career, each coming on the grass, but instead of staying there, the trainer got bigger aspirations. He would head to the KYD trail, and did end up running third in the BG Stakes, but the other two starts were not as impressive on the main track. Now, he is heading back to the grass, where he is undefeated. Working well, and has plenty of ability to win this race.

Prediction: 3-2-8-7

— NS

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES

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