SAR Oaks – Grade III
SAR Race #8 1 3/16m Turf Graded Stake
Purse $700.000 For Fillies Three Years Old.
1 Love Is Free Iolaus Racing Silvera Ru
So far this filly has been more successful on a wet track but i am not sure she is a one trick pony as she is pretty lightly raced so far so is a bit of an unknown quantity. She has been somewhat thrown into the deep end today but the trainer knows how to handle the big time and her works are pretty much in the ball park so its not a blind throw at the stumps.
2 The Nation Arindel Rocco J S Jr
This trainer certainly seems to be getting the good draws in the races i am writing about this weekend and gets 2 and 3 in this race and must have yet another chance of taking the bacon. This filly took the CAC Oaks early in the year but hasn’t really kicked on from that. She did win one of the big ticket allowances at CD last time and had run well at stakes level in between so is not without a chance especially with this perfect draw. One thing to note is that she has run some of her best races at this level from more inner type draws so that is a positive to take out of her post position.
3 Bonnie Arindel Ferrer J C
This is an interesting one because this highly successful trainer campaigned her exclusively in sprints up to April of this year and then out of the blue switched her to routes after running her in a sprint claimer. That switch saw her win the Sanibel Island and then she went on to run a very good second in the Edgewood suggesting that the trainer found a hidden key to her ability. Her last run in the Regret threw up some warning signals for me as it was on a dry track and her two prior good efforts had been on an off track so that brings into question her ability to run a top race on a dry track. Drawn well though and on the up so would have to be a consideration.
4 Glip Glop TwinTowersRacing Velazquez J R
Here is another that went through a revelational change in surfaces and has won her last two albeit at a lower level. She won nicely at LS last time but it is worth noting she was only carrying 114Lbs so her speed figure has to be taken with a grain of salt. Having said that her works seem to be as good as anything and represent stakes winning sorts of times but again a thing worth noting is that even claimers seem to be able to work stakes winning times so it s not something that should be used as a singular reason for winning. The trainer knows how to win big pots with this type of horse and for that reason i would give her a winning chance at maybe rewarding odds.
5 I Love Me Mb Stables Saez L
She is one of the best workers in the race and on her best performances would be a big winning chance for the champion trainer. She did very well with a horrible draw in the BEL Oaks where she was sent to the front from wide and led through to the mile mark before weakening. I do feel that she finds a longer trip stretches her stamina when ridden positively but on the down side doesn’t have a killer turn of foot so she can’t get too far behind. I feel that means she will need a few things to work in her favor here and if they do she would win but i wouldn’t be taking short odds.
6 Make An Impact Maxmillion Farm Gonzalez Ru
Ran past I Love Me late when a good second in the BEL Oaks last time and also had a poor draw so the trainer will be confident this filly can do it again. That run was a huge improvement on her previous form and was her first try over a longer trip so it will be interesting to see how she goes today. We all know the trainers prowess on turf so this form filly must be a serious chance of winning here.
7 Tellcharlieitsforyou Nakamura Stables Luzzi L J
A lightly raced and consistent filly who has been given time to come to herself and may now be on the cusp of breaking through. Her works say so and her last two wins have been perfect but i do have one thing which is holding me back from saying she is a winner here and that is the draw. A stalker by nature she was put to the front the last times she had a wide draw and whilst that may not ruin her chances it does carry some question marks as there are a couple which may try and make her work hard to get a spot early on.
8 Perfect Class Sccj Stables Gutierrez Mario
I don’t know how often i have seen this recently but the best horse gets the widest draw, it almost seems like a handicap sometimes. Having said that this horse has been good enough to overcome that handicap before and could very easily do so again so i on the balance of things this should be the winner. Why would i make such a sweeping statement from a horse drawn in the car park, well she was so impressive in the BEL Oaks last time and recently recorded a better work time than she did pre that race so i cannot see how realistically she can be beaten today.
In my mind the race engine or the random are the only thing that can beat Perfect Class today but if she does get beaten there may be some nice odds on some of the others. Tellcharlieitsforyou may be the dark horse in the race and you must give Make An Impact and I love Me a chance to run Perfect Class close.