The Martha Washington [KYO]
OP Race #1 1m Dirt Stake
Purse $200.000 For Fillies Three Years Old.
1 Super Lucky Nakamura Stables Alvarado F T 121 —
Comes in here a little from the corner but i feel she is better than her form figures suggest, and I really liked the way she hit the line last time out. The winner of a little maiden at TUP she went to stakes company in her third race when running on strongly to be third in the Untappable on Boxing Day. The works say she is working her way into a filly that can win a race like this and it may be today.
2 Black Beauty D J C Racing Stables Ferrer J C 121 —
Took a while to clear maidens but did it impressively when upped to a mile and it is interesting to note that she remains unbeaten in routes with that maiden win. Her next two starts were in stakes races where she ran fairly well over sprint trips but i feel we may see her best now she steps up in trip again.
3 Cowgirls Maxmillion Farm Velazquez J R 123 —
This canny trainer doesn’t pay $100 for donkeys so it is significant that this three-race winner is put in here to compete against her peers carrying a two-pound penalty. Her win in the Muskoka Stakes came on an off track so those conditions wouldn’t phase her, and she saw the trip out well in testing conditions that day so this trip may well just improve her a bit too. A contender even with her penalty.
4 With Criminals Big Guns Stables Hernandez R M 121 —
One of the form choices here after a strong maiden win at WO and a battling third in the grade two Santa Ynez Stakes. Her last work cracked the 1.11 for six furlongs and that is among the best here so she must go in as one of the favorites to take a step towards the KYO.
5 Ruth Langmore Luz International Pennington F 121 —
Took her maiden at the fourth attempt but had run two very good placings in big ticket CD maidens before that and shouldn’t be judged harshly for the time it took her to win. Strong works suggest she enjoyed the winning feeling, and she must be considered a chance.
6 Lonestar Annie Alydar Stables Centeno D E 121 —
Took an easy maiden win at PRX in her second start and then rather surprisingly went down the track grade to win a state bred at TAM last time out. I think that form may make people overlook her, but I really like her last few works, hitting 1.37 for the mile and a swift 1.10 and 3 for the six furlongs a week ago. On those works and her easy wins i think she may be the dark horse in this field.
7 In Dreams TwinTowersRacing Cedillo A 121 —
A very easy maiden win at FL is all that we really have to go on, but she battled well at GP next out and may be a bit better than her bare form suggests. Her works are a little off some of the others, but this stable knows how to get them to run, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see her in the top four at log odds.
8 Shadow State Smokey Stover Elliott S 121 —
With very little to go on it is tough to work out whether this one is a superstar or just a good type. Her debut came on the last few days of 2022 when she was pretty impressive in winning a SUN maiden which isn’t easy to do at that time of year. The things that stand out are the only two works she has had, one prior to her debut and one after which stopped the clock at 1.37 flat. I think Smokey may have another good filly here and she must be a big consideration.
9 Calm Fury Mb Stables Saez L 121 —
The champion trainer’s entry has all the form here running second in the BC Juvenile Fillies and the grade one Alcibiades and also boasting some strong works so will probably start off as a justified favorite because of that. With the draw meaning almost nothing now she won’t have the same problems she had in the Starlet when a big disappointment and taking that run out, she is the outstanding filly in the race.
10 Yow Royalty Stables Lopez P 121 —
A good winner in the mud at AQU last time out i think she may need those conditions again to give her a chance in this. Her dry works are a little behind the best, but she was very impressive in the wet.
The obvious form choice here is Calm Fury who is by far the most accomplished filly in the race. I am however keen on Shadow State and Lonestar Annie with the aforementioned name being the most likely to turn over the likely favorite.