The Music City Stakes – Grade III (P1)
KD Race #1 6 1/2f Turf Graded Stake
Purse $750.000 For Fillies Three Years Old.
The big four stables have two runners each here and have managed, as hoped, four of the top six placings in the draw. That’s the advantage of having multiple runners you have a much better chance of a decent draw with at least one of them. The downside of that for those trainers will be what to do with the other runner, do they use tactics to try and suit their favored runner or do they let them both run their race and maybe play into the hands of their rivals? Whatever happens, this is an open race with plenty of unknowns to throw into the mix so let’s start looking at the entries:
1 Broadway Lady Arindel Hernandez C J 122 —
A consistent filly but one that has proved hard to win with and she won’t find that task any easier today. It goes to show just how tough it can be to win at this level when you look at the fact that she has been second in two grade ones, one of those being the BC Juvenile Turf but hasn’t managed a win since her maiden back in August 2022. Her works are still strong, and she has had some good draws so there doesn’t seem to be an obvious excuse other than she always seems to find one or two too good. She may have that problem again today.
2 Andie Walsh First Flight Stable Saez G 122 —
A lightly raced filly she gets the ideal gate to try and get some of this but her deep closing style has definitely been holding her back so she may need some of that race engine magic to help her along. The only real blip on her record was the BEL Oaks last time when she got behind as usual but never really finished like she had in the Edgewood and Appalachian prior to that. She seems an honest sort and maybe this draw gives her her best chance for a while of getting into a decent position early on and she may be one to surprise.
3 Wild Dream Smokey Stover Cohen D 122 —
The thought that the quality of the opposition can improve a horse is definitely dispelled by this trainer who brings their good ones through the ranks as he has done with her. She is a confirmed sprinter over those that are coming back in trip which may be to her advantage, and she also seems to go on any going type which also makes her attractive. Her works are slick, but her form is challenging to read but with a great draw I am sure she will be very competitive.
4 Calming Presence Mb Stables Zayas E J 122 —
Even the best trainer in the game can’t seem to work out this one’s best trip as she has been over all sorts of distances in her short career. Back to sprinting last time in The Pea Patch she won nicely but you would have to say the quality of that field wasn’t near to this. We know works do not seem to matter much once they get to this level, but she is working as fast as any here and when these big purses are on offer this trainer is usually there to steal them away.
5 In Dreams TwinTowersRacing Bridgmohan S X 122 —
Three runs on turf for no wins and both her wins have come in route races, now that wouldn’t be a good advert in real life but this is HRP, so we have to look little past facts and deal with other factors. Her turf works are on point, as you would expect, and I actually really liked her effort in the BEL Oaks last time when she was close up on this trip. Of course, it is almost impossible to draw any conclusions from most of her form so we come back to the fact that this trainer can turn in some big-priced winners so I wouldn’t be too quick to write her off.
6 Authority To Pass Maxmillion Farm Elliott S 122 —
The fact that this one was beaten in an optional claimer over this trip wouldn’t be a great advert for her chances, but she did well in the BEL Oaks last time and may be improving. The trainer certainly thinks she will as they paid $75.000 for her after a little allowance win and we all know what Max can do with some grass under his feet.
7 Pippin Arindel Bejarano R 122 —
Another that probably hasn’t lived up to her early promise although her recent works have been strong, and she has run OK over this trip. In a race where there isn’t as much depth as you would normally see in a $750.000 race, she has as much a chance as any and won the NY Stallions Stakes-Joy last time with some authority.
8 Breath Of The Bride Smokey Stover Eramia R E 122 —
Pretty much followed the stable trend of building her form through the lower tracks and as usual that worked when she was successful in the San Clemente last time. Four of her five wins have been over longer trips but that wouldn’t worry me here at HRP so out of the two stable runners this may be their better chance.
9 Lucky Star Maxmillion Farm Davila J R Jr 122 —
You have to love trying to read HRP form as this one comes here with one win from one on turf in the grade two Edgewood over a mile and sixteenth. Her other four wins came on dirt, so we once again see the old adage that surface means nothing to a good horse at HRP. Despite her success over longer trips, she is one of the more successful here with nearly $1,000.000 in prize money, and that can stand for a lot when it comes to the big races.
10 Stellar Strength Mb Stables Talamo J 122 —
A length behind Lucky Star in the Wild Applause but she was ahead of her at this trip so I wouldn’t say that form would be easy to confirm. I certainly think her early pace will be a factor in this race as we often see Mb’s horses able to dominate from that position and with only four starts, she may be the one with the most improvement to come.
11 Deaf Luna Asgar Dominguez Jo 122 —
A real solid sprinter who loves her racing and always seems to be thereabouts. She seems to like being just behind the leaders which will be very tough from this draw so she will need some help from the race engine if she is to continue her consistent finishes. plenty of ticks in the boxes but I feel her fate is with the draw monster.
12 Niagra Keys Alydar Stables Loveberry J 122 —
Another routing type coming back to sprinting but as I have said we sort to have to ignore that at HRP and concentrate on how good she is overall. Well, it has to be said she is very good, but she is at the mercy of the race engine out here in the car park and I worry her deep closing style may be her worst enemy if the pace is just OK. Having said that a lucky click of a button or some AI magic and she could turn into a front runner so who knows what we will get? Either way, this is a class filly who could win this without the race engines help.
The better chances seem to be drawn wider here which will make for an exciting race that the good old race engine will have to try and makes sense of. I think Lucky Star may have the edge with Stellar Strength may be getting the better of the start and finish close-up. Of the others, well the two Smokey runners will be very competitive as all of theirs are so I will be taking those runners for my top four.