DMR Race #5 7f Dirt Stake
Purse $100.000 For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward Foaled In CA.
1 English Charm Zoeller Desormeaux K J 126 —
An experienced mare and the winner of 18 races she has stepped up a bit in her last couple of runs at graded level and may be able to shrug off the big weight she has to carry today. Certainly, the inside draw is worth a pound or two and if she can get a decent position early on, she will be strong at the end.
2 Water Demon Chili King Stables Smith M E 123 —
Last in her last two races at a higher grade her last win came in the Melair so she finds herself with a penalty here and loses the advantage of the three-year-old weight allowance. Like the inside horse though the draw off sets that disadvantage a bit, but I have a feeling this seven furlongs may be a bit sharp for her.
3 Nebulistic Barcelona Farms Van Dyke D 121 —
Won the grade one DMR Debutante as a two-year-old but was then tied up by the draw monster in the BC and ended up eighth in the BC Fillies Juvenile. She has had some bad luck with the draw monster in all her graded stakes runs but she has undoubted ability and gets her chance today to find the winning groove again. This may be her best trip and she would be my top chance.
4 Love Analyst Asgar Rispoli U 124 —
A solid type who has been consistent in overnight company she may be OK here, but I feel the trip may be her biggest enemy.
5 Lise Charmel Wood Duck Stables Bravo J 121 —
Took a while to clear maidens but has run well since. Ran as a closer in both her graded stakes starts and did well in the Victory Road to be a hard closing third. Whether it was just the pace of the race or a positional experiment from the trainer last time we don’t know but she went to one win allowance company and ran out a pretty easy winner from much nearer the pace. Things will have to play right for her to win as a deep closer here but if she can stay a bit closer there is no reason she couldn’t win.
6 Amuzing Code Party Spb Racing Vazquez R A 124 —
Claimed for just $7.500 but quickly put those days behind her with a couple of wins in overnight company and then two great pay checks at graded level. She very nearly won the ONT Matron Stakes last time so is more or less a grade three winner with no penalty so she would be my first choice if Nebulistic fails.
7 Bahamas Mo Mentum Farm Maldonado E 124 —
An easy allowance win last time may have boosted her confidence as she had been struggling to record a win prior to that. She is a solid enough type, but this is a decent state bred field and she may struggle a little.
8 Moment To Dream Alydar Stables Cedillo A 124 —
Capped off some consistent form with an easy allowance win last time. She is much better than her recent form suggests because if you go back to her two-year-old days you see she was a grade one winner over this trip. Gets her chance today in a decent field.
The trifecta here for me in Nebuistic, Amuzing Code Party and Lise Charmel, possibly in that order but boxing the bet may be the way to go.