1 Pip Cozzene, trained by Chili King Stables

A winner of the DMR Derby as a three year old he looked like he was developing into a top sort and confirmed that with a great effort in the HOL Derby. He was given a decent break and returned as a four year old to take the CA Cup Turf Classic with a gutsy front running effort. Since then he has taken on four grade ones running second in the Kilroe Mile and Woodford Turf Classic confirming himself as a top turf router. My only real concern is that just three weeks ago he ran in The Manhattan Handicap where he looked a little jaded in finishing ninth and I worry he may have need a longer rest than he has got before this race.

2 Puzzle Pieces, trained by Downwind Stables

A decent two year old he failed to make the TC chase with four good efforts which saw him come away with only a third in the Holy Bull to write home about. He stepped up in lesser company last time up in the ungraded Murphy Stakes but that form shouldn’t be good enough to beat the more stablished turf stars in this race so although he has a chance with the weight concession I can’t give him a winning one.

3 Jovan River, trained by Mb Stables

Failed in a crack at the BEL Derby last year and has been brought along very slowly since. Consistent efforts since have seen him win two overnights out of seven attempts and purely on that sort of form you would struggle to give him a chance in this race. HOWEVER, we have seen far too many horses from this stable suddenly post strong work times and go from average to outstanding in one race. You have to give him a serious look but I just can’t see him being quite good enough.

4 Sir Tom. Trained by Brave

Third in last year’s BC turf mile as a three year old he looked an exciting prospect. This season he has won the Miami Mile and whilst his last start was pretty poor I think we can safely say that the mile and a half was well beyond his stamina capabilities. I expect a big run back over his favoured trip today and he is sure to be very competitive.

5 Commercial Grade, trained by Grimley

A decent sort with some good works and three wins from seven it is hard to give him a chance on exposed form. Having said that his win in a CD overnight last time was in a good time and the three year old weight allowance gives him a hope of breaking 1.33 which will make him competitive.

6 Diplomatic Rule, trained by D J C Racing Stables

A bit of an in and out performer, he has a chance at his best but you have to take a punt in the hope that he will perform to his best. He ran well to be third in The Red Bank Stakes last time but I don’t think even his best will see him beating the best of this field.

7 Great Tint Tap Q, trained by Nakamura Stables

A winner of last year’s BC Derby on dirt he has recently switched back to turf and has looked pretty good. He was hitting the line nicely in the seven furlong Connaught Cup last time so this trip will suit and he may be the type of underrated horse to skip under the radar in a trappy race like this. His wide draw may see him get too far back but if he can stay within four or five lengths through the first half of that race I would be expecting big finish from him.

SUMMARY

This isn’t the best grade two ever run and is open to a shock winner but I am going for Sir Tom to bounce back to his best with maybe Great Tiny Tap Q coming late for second and Pip Cozzene running his usual gritty race for third.

Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES