Nearctic Stakes – Grade II
WO Race #3 6f Turf Graded Stake
Purse $250.000 For Three Year Olds And Upward.
1 Freak Storm, trained by Mo Mentum Farm
Though this three year olds form doesnt inspire too much confidence a deeper look reveals there is a little more upside than first noticed. In his last two starts he has been drawn wide and in both cases he made up plenty of late ground to be beaten just a length in the KD Turf Dash and The Eddie D. Now we all know the problem with a wide draw is that 90% of the time there are only two choices and thats to push forward or to go back. In both of these recent races he has been taken back and in a sprint coming from last can be a very tall order. If we go back to his races before his last two we see that with an inside draw he ran much close to the pace most notably in taking an open allowance at SAR. Todays ace draw will certainly let this gelding run and i must admit to liking his chances at probable long odds.
2 Bubba Kush, trained by Threshold
You have to go a long way back in this ones career to find a sprint and in fact he has only sprinted once in three seasons of racing. That sort of form wouldnt be much of a recommendation in a real life race but at HRP horses that have a drastic change in running surface or trip can throw the odd big race and it is just possible that this one could be a dark horse. His sprint works show that he has plenty f pace and a good draw may just see him sneak some place money.
3 Canadian Folk, trained by Team 7 Illusions
This filly adds a very interesting angle to this race as she is in receipt of winners gold at HRP and thats weight. A double graded stakes winner this season she took the TS Turf Sprint against open company back in May proving that age and sex are no barriers compared to receiving weight and then did the same thing in the grade two Highlander Stakes in July. She showed her versatility on the dirt last time in The Pires finishing third in the mud and whilst she gets less weight from the boys today she still looks a very good bet. The only worry is that she may not get the soft ground in which she has raced in her last 4 starts but a win on a firmer surface in the ungraded Star Shoots at the start of the year suggests she can handle it OK.
4 Tin Lizzie, trained by Stald Gullis
This five year old has been at the top for a long while now winning the grade one Read Stakes as a three year old and the Kilroe Mile and BC Mile as a four year old. Those are huge results from a very good horse but the warning signs are out this year and he has gone his last six races without a top 4 finish. This may be a bit of a last ditch effort for the gelding but any glimmer of his old form would see him beat these but that glimmer looks a long way off.
5 Julians Dream, trained by Avalos Racing
This four year old took a long time to break his maiden but since that day in July he has shown enough improvement to suggest he can get into this race. A good win in allowance company was followed by a very soldi third in the O Brien last time where he ran on strongly to be beaten just a half length into third. His work times are very good and he is clearly improving so you cant write him off but you have to take a chance with him as today is his first race on turf. As i said earlier a drastic change of trip or surface can spark a big effort so i wouldnt let that worry me if i owned this lightly raced entire.
6 Idrinkgoodcoffee, trained by Mo Mentum Farm
Winning form is good form and this three year old is on a four timer today. Starting his streak in overnights he topped of his three timer with an easy win in the Allied Forces last time in a very quick time at BEL. He recorded that time with 122 Lbs on his back and gets two less today and that may be too quick for his rivals in an open looking sprint.
7 Venture Capitalist, trained by Mb Stables
Anything from this stable must be taken seriously and with one of the fastest work times in the field he certainly deserves respect. He built slowly towards his current status winning at lower grade but in his last two starts he has taken on graded company and ran well enough to suggest he has a winning chance. His second in the Connaught Cup was out of the top draw recording triple digit speed figures and although only tenth in the Play The King last time he ran much better than his finishing position suggests. Taken back from a wide draw he ran on to be beaten just two lengths and whilst that was a shade disappointing i wouldnt be writing him off because of it.
8 North Palmerston, trained by TwinTowersRacing
With only one win from 15 and plenty of recent failures at over night level it is easy to write this one off. Having said that with zero class system in place at HRP you cant only look at form and a glimpse at his recent work at KEE certainly suggests he can sprint. A long shot
9 Engaging, trained by Mb Stables
The second runner from the stable and with both drawn fairly wide we may be seeing one of them go out as pacemaker. This four year old is pretty quick finishing second in the 5 furlong Turf Monster Handicap last time but he has also demonstrated an ability to stay 6 furlongs. Like his stable mate his works are far better than his form but a 57 and 2 work last time make him one of the quickest. Not sure he has a winning chance so we may see him sacrificed to the pace.
10 My Plucky, trained by Hambletonian Stables
This stable tends to pick their races pretty carefully but this gelding who has won six from 7 this year has won at just about every level this year from statebred allowance to a grade two. His last start was in the grade two Henry Championship over a mile and a quarter and he won that like a router so its interesting that he has been chosen to come all the way back to 6 furlongs today. HRP however isnt as fickle as real life when it comes to the difference between sprinting and routing though and the allowance he won back in March was over five and a half furlongs in a very quick time so i dont doubt he can win at this trip too. The wide draw will test and if he doesnt go forward he will have a long way to come to get to the post in first place.
SUMMARY
I doubt we would ever see a race like this in real life. Firstly we have the three year old filly taking on open sprinters, secondly we have a grade two winner over a mile and a quarter coming back to sprinting and thirdly we have a couple of career dirt horses going on the grass. In real life the choices would be easy but on HRP anything can happen and usually does!
To keep with reality i will go for the turf sprinters but without any real commitment, so its All For One or Freak Storm. If i was looking at the race from a HRP perspective i would have to say the filly from the router with the dirt horses close behind.
Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES
