July 9, 2015
The Grade III RGD, at a tricky 11-furlongs over the DEL turf course, has become the type of race that sits on the calendar in the perfect spot as a prep race for both the Grade I Beverly D at AP and the Grade I Mabee Handicap at DMR and as such, usually gets some of the best older mares on the grass for a solid $200.000 purse. Led by Donna Jean in 2008, Good Lady G in 2012 and defending champion Rock Warrior, who is not back this year, it has been won by a number of very good females in the past and this year, only five line up including the runner-up from a year ago who is once again in top form and could be a major force to be reckoned with over a firm turf or one with some give to it.
1-Wanted Lady (Five-year-old bay mare / Owner-Dandy Dan Stables)
There is certainly no harm in taking a big leap of faith with a horse and with only five entered, the chances that Wanted Lady will at least earn some prize money are good and off a wire-to-wire win at SUF, she could be turning a corner as the distances get longer. But speed ratings are much lower than the winning average and she has only been okay in workouts so her odds will be high and her chances of winning even higher against this salty group of veterans.
Analysis-Won last time but this is a whole new stretch
Fair Odds-20/1
2-Aussie Haka (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-Aml Racing)
Aussie Haka has never faced stakes company, let alone a Grade III going this massive distance, so she has to rank as one of the longshots despite a last out victory that came in a swift time at AP, with a high enough speed rating to contend. She seems to be moving up her conditions well but has never faced the top class in those allowance contests and with three big runners in here, she will most likely be battling for fourth money in the final quarter-mile.
Analysis-Last out win was good but not at this class
Fair Odds-12/1
3-Tiz Flirt (Five-year-old black mare / Owner-Scorpion Stables)
Tiz Flirt is the stable star of Scorpion Stables and has provided some of their biggest wins but you have to go all the way back to 2012 to find their lone Graded Stakes winner and on Saturday, this mare will try to duplicate that effort and overcome that close runner-up finish from one year ago. She set the pace over a firm course and was outkicked to the wire but this year, she has been better at closing into quick paces and after just missing with a mammoth 100-speed rating in the Grade II NY, she looks to be in the right form to put everything together at this even longer distance.
Analysis-Second last year but comes in with better credentials
Fair Odds-2/1
4-Risen Queen (Four-year-old chestnut filly / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)
Risen Queen had an excellent three-year-old campaign, highlighted by a season ending score in the Red Carpet Handicap at DMR over this same distance, but her four-year-old runs have not quite been as good and while quick enough, still a notch below what might be needed to win here. She gets back to her longest distance of the season which might help her stalking abilities but you really wanted to see more of an effort in the Just A Game before putting your faith in a filly who has finished on the board in less than half of her starts to date.
Analysis-Really should have shown more at BEL
Fair Odds-5/1
5-Princess Mandy (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-Night Rider Stables)
A winner in seven of her first 11 races, Princess Mandy has been on an extended losing streak since her third in the tough Grade I Flower Bowl at BEL and while she might have been good enough to close for third in the NY, she still needs to revert back to her sharp one-mile form and the hope is that she can find a pace to set up her closing kick. She certainly has the speed ratings to contend with the best and shows a great workout over this course so while she might not have the right form cycle, she does have the ability and that counts for something when the chips are down.
Analysis-Proven class is an asset at this level
Fair Odds-4/1
Overall
Tiz Flirt led the 2014 RGD field into backstretch before being overtaken by a worthy foe in Rock Warrior but on Saturday, there does not seem to be that kind of power to contend with her and she looks to be in the driver’s seat if she can settle, stalk and pounce like she did at BEL last time out. Princess Mandy also closed well in that same event but ran out of ground as well so she poses a threat for the victory from her outside stall while Risen Queen is not the same filly as last year but will appreciate the longer distance as she tries to duplicate her effort from DMR last November.
Prediction
Win-Tiz Flirt (2/1)
Place-Princess Mandy (4/1)
Show-Risen Queen (5/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: Grade III
